On 28 August, France's President Macron had invited the presidents of
Niger, Chad and Libya to the Élysée Palace to find solutions to the refugee
crisis. Also present: the leaders of Italy, Germany and Spain. The mini summit
came up with a plan for the eschewal of African migrants. As it were, Macron,
Merkel, Rajoy & co decided to extend the European external borders up to
the Libyan coast and now even well into the Sahel zone: forefield control as a
populist waste disposal instrument. No matter how cruel the reception camps.
Euphemistic label: ´Migration Partnership´.
Berlin has an increased interest in Africa because it fears that
immigration in the public is unpopular. In a recent survey on the Bundestag
election 2017, there was no other topic (poverty, unemployment, crime) that
worried the Germans as much as the immigration and integration of foreigners.
Clearly more than half of the interviewees, 56 per cent, consider migration the
greatest societal problem currently for Germany. In fact, the irregular
migration to Germany and Europe - mainly via the Mediterranean - had increased
strongly until 2015. To be sure, migration from Africa is still low compared to
Africa´s total population and relative to the refugee wave from the Middle
East. But African migration to Europe will rise.
Historical experience - formerly in Europe, East Asia and North America,
but also in China and India - has shown a demographic transition pattern that
is closely linked to economic development. In the preindustrial phase, high
birth rates and high mortality rates cause weak population growth. In the first
part of the demographic transition, mortality rates begin to drop while birth
rates and population growth remain high. In the second part of the demographic
transition, declining birth rates and declining death rates lead to a slowdown
in population growth. In the (post-) industrial phase, low birth rates cause
weak or even declining population growth.
In one world region, however, the demographic transition is still slow
although per capita income has risen: Sub-Saharan Africa. Demographic
standstill includes Africa's most populous state, Nigeria, which already has
nearly 200 million inhabitants. South of the Sahara, the decline in birth rates
is agonizingly slow: the figure fell from 5.1 per woman in 2000-05 to only 4.7
per cent in the period 2010-2015. By 2050, according to UN projections,
Africa's population will double to 2.5 billion[1].
Medical advances and the expansion of health care systems have led to higher
life expectancy but living standards remain low, not least because of the
associated rise of total population. One has to fear that without birth control
and vigorous educational measures for the young Africans part of the continent
will stay in the first phase of the demographic transition for too long. Some
African societies have been stuck in the Malthusian trap.
The migration potential of Africa, the total number of African migrants, is
likely to rise from a demographic perspective as long as the population grows
strongly. From an economic point of view, the willingness to emigrate will
remain high due to lack of training and labor market opportunities for a
growing working population. The IMF categorizes 85 per cent of African migrants
as economically motivated, only 15 per cent as political refugees[2].
Politically, Africa's migration potential is fueled by government failure,
instability, political persecution and human rights violations. The
attractiveness of political stability, democracy, the rule of law and social
policy in Europe explains part of the migration to Europe. The migration
potential of Africa is also likely to increase from the ecological point of
view because water scarcity and the degradation of soils will increase as a
result of advancing climate change and growing population pressure. Whether the
African migration potential will manifest itself in migration to Europe also
depends on the absorption capacity of the African target regions (such as
southern Africa and North Africa).
In fact, African migration has so far mainly remained within the continent.
According to IMF data, the share of immigrant migrants in the total population
in Africa is relatively low (2%) compared with the other developing countries
(3%). The reason is simple: the poorest cannot afford to emigrate. It is
Africa´s future migration dynamics that
worries politicians most. Today, a total population of just fewer than one billion
Africans translates into 20 million migrants. In 2050, it will be 50 million if
Africa´s migration percentage stays at two percent and Africa's population
rises to 2.5 billion. How many of them will leave Africa?
According to the cited IMF note, the proportion of African migrants who
actually leave their continent has increased from a quarter in the last quarter
of the 20th century to a third today. Their numbers ranged from one
million in 1990 to today's six million. Population growth and the growing share
of African exodus suggest that their number will rise to 20 million over the
coming decades. Most Africans migrants want to go to Western Europe these days.
European governments want to prevent this with all their might, at the cost of betraying
their own basic humanitarian principles. “So sad.”
[1] UN DESA, World population projected to reach
9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100, 21 June 2017.
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