tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31225853209681908912024-03-13T04:25:30.896+01:00ShiftingWealthHelmut Reisen's blog on the recalibration of the world economy toward the East and the implications for poor and rich, policymakers and investors.ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.comBlogger168125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-10726547796191137712023-10-24T18:49:00.007+02:002023-10-25T13:06:32.239+02:00Rogue Forces and Shifting Wealth<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUTLG0kpnr1vcNHScHRcWpcyjL_KKpzfBePx_MWQlh9WiGhBn01KAKPmhnzqbYAzAhruwM-yH0J1WrV9BSajRN47QlWsAnvYBZxAkb0PwGHIH9m8BZBxUAfPgJXZquZmYUakMTdNuAojrY-_iFRjAyqft1y28EJF7N5F8uzFqVcPCxlI54kcOtg7K757k/s253/Rogue%20States.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="199" data-original-width="253" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUTLG0kpnr1vcNHScHRcWpcyjL_KKpzfBePx_MWQlh9WiGhBn01KAKPmhnzqbYAzAhruwM-yH0J1WrV9BSajRN47QlWsAnvYBZxAkb0PwGHIH9m8BZBxUAfPgJXZquZmYUakMTdNuAojrY-_iFRjAyqft1y28EJF7N5F8uzFqVcPCxlI54kcOtg7K757k/s1600/Rogue%20States.jpg" width="253" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Jörg Lau (a foreign affairs correspondent
for DIE ZEIT) has a much-admired article in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Internationale
Politik<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[i]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></i>,
which claims: “Like Russia's attack on Ukraine, the escalation in the Middle
East is part of a global geopolitical transformation for which there is not yet
a term.” Well, at the OECD Development Centre that transformation has been
documented under the term <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Shifting Wealth</i>
in a periodic OECD publication called <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Perspectives
on Global Development</i>.<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_edn2" name="_ednref2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[ii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
A German translation of the term was established before, also in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Internationale Politik <a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_edn3" name="_ednref3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iii]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></i>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Weltneuvermessung</i>. <a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_edn4" name="_ednref4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">To be sure, the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Shifting Wealth</i> narrative, with hindsight, was politically naïve. We
liked to ignore warnings that the BRICS group was more than about economic
convergence of the poorer Southern nations. But then, we were not alone.
Famously, Francis Fukuyama had proclaimed the End of History in 1989. The fall
of the Soviet Union and of the Berlin Wall suggested liberal democracy to be a
fundamentally better system, ethically, politically and economically, than any
of the alternatives<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_edn5" name="_ednref5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[v]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>. Table
1 suggests that it turned out very differently.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Table
1: Political Freedom & Civil Liberties in Selected Emerging Countries,
2013-22<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Country<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">2013<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">2022<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Trend<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Brazil*<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">81 <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">72<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">China*<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">17<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">09<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Egypt <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">41<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">18<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↓</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">India*<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">76<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">66<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↓</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Indonesia<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">65<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">58<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Nigeria<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">46<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">43<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">→</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Russia*<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">27<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">16<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↓</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Turkey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">61<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">32<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↓</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">South Africa*<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">81<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">79<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">→</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">* = </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 9pt;">original
BRICS </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Memo: USA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">93<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">83<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-color: currentcolor windowtext windowtext currentcolor; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Source: <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/reports/freedom-world/freedom-world-research-methodology">https://freedomhouse.org/reports/freedom-world/freedom-world-research-methodology</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The BRICS are a convenient label for authoritarian
regimes that turned rogue, notably China and Russia. It was held together by
the desire of their leaders to end US hegemony, to revise global governance and
to strictly respect noninterference in internal affairs. What could go wrong
with a “multipolar world”, which would replace a not so benevolent US hegemon?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Well, the recent massacers of Russia in
Ukraine and of Iran-sponsored Hamas in Israel have desillusioned brutally our
multipolar dreams. These massacers have been encouraged by an internal and
external weakening of the United States, as exemplified by the Trump trauma and
threat, by unresoved budget issues and by the US leaving Afghanistan, with
former support staff cynically exposed to the Taliban. The erosion of Western
dominance in the international economic and norm-setting sphere and the absence
of a “Western policeman” (Lau, op.cit.) has emboldened the most radical actors
to take greater risks across the world. USSR-Ukraine; Iran-Hamas-Israel;
China-Taiwan; Azerbaijan-Armenia; the list is getting longer, and it includes
the Sahel zone, too. Note in passing that conflict-induced migration seems to
weaken the Western polity, too, as it turns voters toward the Hard Right, as in
France, Germany or Italy. Many observers assume Putin´s mastermind behind mass
immigration.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: endnote-list;"><!--[if !supportEndnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="edn1" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> English version: “<a href="https://ip-quarterly.com/en/israel-hamas-war-and-new-world-order">The
Israel-Hamas War and the New World Order</a>”; German version: “<a href="https://internationalepolitik.de/de/am-nullpunkt">Am Nullpunkt</a>”,
November/December 2023.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn2" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_ednref2" name="_edn2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[ii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> The first, entitled <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Shifting Wealth</i>,
was published in June 2010: <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/perspectives-on-global-development-2010_9789264084728-en">https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/perspectives-on-global-development-2010_9789264084728-en</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn3" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_ednref3" name="_edn3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> Helmut Reisen, „<a href="https://internationalepolitik.de/de/die-neuvermessung-der-welt-0">Die
Neuvermessung der Welt</a>“, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Internationale
Politik</i>, July 2008.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn4" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_ednref4" name="_edn4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> That term has given rise to a blog, now entertained by Thomas
Bonschab and Robert Kappel: <a href="https://weltneuvermessung.wordpress.com/">https://weltneuvermessung.wordpress.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn5" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Rogue%20Forces%20and%20Shifting%20Wealth.docx#_ednref5" name="_edn5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[v]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Ben Zissimos (2022), “<a href="https://www.intereconomics.eu/contents/year/2022/number/6/article/the-end-of-the-end-of-history-a-political-economy-perspective.html">The
End of the End of History: A Political-Economy Perspective</a>”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Intereconomics</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-16293254143338246162023-04-21T10:53:00.003+02:002023-04-21T11:09:37.696+02:00The West & South in a Dark Age of System Rivalry<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Shortly after Putin´s Russia had invaded
Ukraine, I observed that global governance was disintegrating into an
American-dominated bloc and a Chinese-dominated bloc, with Russia and the EU
countries as junior partners. The link between geopolitical and economic
division would not only be calibrated by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">sanctions</i>,
to the extent they are effective. China containment, protectionism, and friend-shoring
next to sanctions are offsetting development friendly <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Shifting<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wealth</i>, as defined by
the OECD Development Centre in 2010<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
To be sure, the concept of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Shifting
Wealth</i> has entirely ignored that the rise of the BRICS has been shaping the
world to suit autocracy. True, the multipolar world has been leveraged by
totalitarians, whence the notion of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">system
rivalry</i>. Yet, I will argue here that it is the West that will shoulder most
of the economic cost of a dark age of “<a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/the_meaning_of_systemic_rivalry_europe_and_china_beyond_the_pandemic/">systemic
rivalry</a>”. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The BRICS and much of the “Global South”, a
risk first overlooked (and denied) by Western observers, might opt for the
China-dominated bloc. With a prolonged <a href="https://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2022/03/after-putins-genocide-in-ukraine.html">division
between the west and a bloc centred on China and Russia</a>, economic divisions
will deepen. As lucidly summed up by Pascal Lamy (ex WTO): “Putin pushes us
into the arms of the Americans and we push Putin into the arms of the Chinese.
This world benefits Beijing, Moscow and even Washington, but can it satisfy us </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Segoe UI Symbol",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI Symbol";">the EU</span><span lang="EN-GB">?”<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Former UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband notes “Few governments endorse the
brazen Russian invasion, yet many remain unpersuaded by the West’s insistence
that the struggle for freedom and democracy in Ukraine is also theirs. …The
concerted Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has thrown into
sharp relief the occasions when the West violated its own rules or when it was
conspicuously missing in action in tackling global problems”<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">UN
General Assembly resolution that demands #Russia leave #Ukraine, 23.2.2023.</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH9C4M6kuTRl9w6f0C_gqd3VWfHDuJg1oX8GgN0BKfQbToC8zUtC3Tg8bVJDruqwOHHOddPtCM18WsKWcJdFoCT85wGlDM1__HVcdHoD7i68SEc60I_IQZQRBaX06O9wyEzH0WpqVGH5EzFq54HSJiHL_2CnvIE25FH3oJ4G1FlAro2hsTOUF1clk8/s624/UNGA%20Ukraine.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH9C4M6kuTRl9w6f0C_gqd3VWfHDuJg1oX8GgN0BKfQbToC8zUtC3Tg8bVJDruqwOHHOddPtCM18WsKWcJdFoCT85wGlDM1__HVcdHoD7i68SEc60I_IQZQRBaX06O9wyEzH0WpqVGH5EzFq54HSJiHL_2CnvIE25FH3oJ4G1FlAro2hsTOUF1clk8/w400-h225/UNGA%20Ukraine.png" width="400" /></a></b></div><div style="text-align: center;">Source: UNGA. <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/02/1133847">https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/02/1133847</a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The claim that much of the <a href="https://www.bruegel.org/first-glance/much-global-south-ukraines-side">Global
South is on Ukraine’s side</a> became first questionable at the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">United Nations General Assembly</i> in March
2022, with BRIC members abstaining a vote for Russia to leave Ukraine. A year
later, the 136 countries of the Global South embraced a range of positions. By
number of countries, almost 62% of Southern countries were classified by
Nicolas Vernon at Bruegel as pro-Ukraine. However, with abstentions by both China
and India, the pro-Ukraine share shrinks to a third by aggregate population<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Much will depend on Brazil´s and India´s soft power where the Global South will
stand in international diplomacy. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The cost of rival blocks might now be
higher for the West than for the South. The rise in South-South linkages has
led to a new world less dependent on the West. From the perspective of poor
countries, the most important consequence of China and India’s entry into the
global economy operated through both global and direct linkages The second
phase of shifting wealth from 2000 to the 2008 great financial crisis GFC </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(</span><span lang="EN-GB">after the first of initial opening during the 1980-2000 period), saw
pervasive convergence of poor countries largely due to increasingly
China-centric growth<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Since the GFC, Chinese imports have been the driving force for South-South
trade. The percentage share of China’s imports in world imports has surged
since China’s WTO accession in 2001. A new geography of South-South development
finance allowed governments to tap a bigger pool of transformative
infrastructure finance and to choose from more financing options<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
The China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) deepened South-South integration in
the postGFC period. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
1979 already (after the 2<sup>nd</sup> oil price shock), Arthus Lewis imagined
the new world in his Nobel lecture. He hoped that sustained Southern growth
would become fired by South-South trade and less constrained by balance of
payment problems and by slower Western growth<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>:
“If a sufficient number of LDCs has reached self-sustaining growth we are into
a new world. For this means that instead of trade determining the rate of
growth of LDC production, it will be the growth of LDC production thatdetermines
LDC trade, and internal forces that will determine the rate of growth of
production.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">FX Turnover by Major Currencies</span></b><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtGifBLodc37ZHTEPm6AWX0gVr2eLAmYXW5NGEDRzaUbEFQFDpAgHdOGkBqQC22xXGlqHzNUpa33fP7O7uyfRhHly0B2ihLgrFvOz1tb3t0GiP_z-kPja_f5m3o6CMpql-cCNtrUe7KV0pJyoDaPV-QVx-HrfMzqzeghOidDoHZBH0ay1_IZZjdJFl/s900/BIS%20FX%20turnover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="900" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtGifBLodc37ZHTEPm6AWX0gVr2eLAmYXW5NGEDRzaUbEFQFDpAgHdOGkBqQC22xXGlqHzNUpa33fP7O7uyfRhHly0B2ihLgrFvOz1tb3t0GiP_z-kPja_f5m3o6CMpql-cCNtrUe7KV0pJyoDaPV-QVx-HrfMzqzeghOidDoHZBH0ay1_IZZjdJFl/w400-h264/BIS%20FX%20turnover.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="text-align: left;">Source: John Authers,
Bloomberg</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In 2009, I had raised the question whether
the <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/shifting-wealth-us-dollar-empire-falling">US
dollar empire was falling</a>. I ventured the Chinese yuan would soon overtake
the US dollar. If history of the last switch in reserve currency (from pound
sterling to the US dollar) was any guide, the yuan could be expected to replace
the US dollar as a reserve currency by around 2050. But I cautioned that the
renminbi wasn´t ready for <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">reserve
currency status</i>. China that does not respect property rights nor other
democratic freedoms such as full currency convertibility. Thus, the yuan sits
on shallow capital markets and frightens as a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">mousetrap currency </i>(a term coined by <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-010-3692-4_11">Wilhelm
Röpke</a>). If anything, the perspectives for the yuan to serve as reserve
currency have worsened under Xi´s increasingly dictatorial rule. So it was
premature to talk about the greenback’s demise, as was rightly pointed out by <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-18/the-dollar-is-not-losing-its-status-any-time-soon?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_content=view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&leadSource=uverify%20wall">John
Authers at Bloomberg</a>. BIS triennial surveys of foreign-exchange markets
show that the dollar is not yet losing market share, unlike the euro, until
2022. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In 2025 however, those numbers may reflect
the fallout of Russia’s invasion, with the Yuan share rising. <a href="https://insiderpaper.com/yellen-says-sanctions-may-risk-hegemony-of-us-dollar/">Economic
sanctions imposed on Russia and other countries by the United States put the
dollar’s dominance at risk as targeted nations seek out an alternative, US Treasury
Secretary Janet Yellen has warned</a>. Already, China and Brazil are working on
a deal to settle trades in their own currencies rather than dollars. Quite
recently, as the US’ rivalry with China and Russia intensified in an increasingly
polarized world, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations were choosing to
diversify their global partnerships, removing important oil resources from
Western control. Oil transactions between Saudi Arabia and China could be
denominated in the Chinese yuan, a significant development in the evolving international
economic and geopolitical landscape. If this move happens, it could have
far-reaching implications for the US dollar’s status as the dominant global
currency, as well as for US-Saudi relations and broader regional dynamics in
the Middle East<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> OECD, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dev/pgd/45451514.pdf">Perspectives
on Global Development 2010: Shifting Wealth</a>, OECD 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Pascal Lamy, “<a href="https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2023/04/12/lunion-europeenne-est-elle-toujours-pertinente-une-conversation-avec-pascal-lamy/">L’Union
européenne est-elle toujours pertinente?</a>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Le Grand Continent</i>, 12. April 2023<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> David Miliband, “The World Beyond Ukraine: The Survival of the West
and the Demands of the Rest”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Foreign
Affairs</i>, May/June 2023.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Nicolas Vernon, <a href="https://www.bruegel.org/first-glance/much-global-south-ukraines-side">Much
of the Global South is on Ukraine´s side</a>, Bruegel, 13. March 2023.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> OECD, Perspectives on Global Development 2019: Rethinking
Development Strategies, OECD 2019.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> A vivid account of China´s footprint in Africa has been given by
Deborah Brautigam, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-dragons-gift-9780199550227?cc=fr&lang=en&">The
Dragon´s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa</a>, OUP 2009.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Arthur Lewis, The Slowing Down of the Engine of Growth, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1979/lewis/lecture/">https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1979/lewis/lecture/</a>,
1979.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20New%20World%20of%20Arthur%20Lewis.docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Habib al-Badawi, “<a href="https://www.specialeurasia.com/2023/04/13/saudi-arabia-us-dollar-yuan/">Can
Saudi Arabia switch from the US dollar to the Chinese yuan?</a>”,
SpecialEurasia, 13. April 2023.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-61160494085363655512022-04-13T17:47:00.004+02:002022-04-16T13:56:15.504+02:00Greed, Grievance & Putin´s War<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHV2--hJIB6jm32vmXuqY8t1JyrcY4KvEZ__Z0hNT5i-btr8s9knBO_q4oKVwo0Zjbzwawg5mOjj17-WBYpiZZFD82W6zHp0VdXXe1GlBT0q4HBh80L86MYcUrXR28m4AhoY4UJCQqawdm1Roc4Y77530xRh1auqph-6oCkcPZ8FWaAeMAEh8iDR9D/s3000/2E69159D-7A49-4264-BB3A-5FA65FAD9BD3.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1688" data-original-width="3000" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHV2--hJIB6jm32vmXuqY8t1JyrcY4KvEZ__Z0hNT5i-btr8s9knBO_q4oKVwo0Zjbzwawg5mOjj17-WBYpiZZFD82W6zHp0VdXXe1GlBT0q4HBh80L86MYcUrXR28m4AhoY4UJCQqawdm1Roc4Y77530xRh1auqph-6oCkcPZ8FWaAeMAEh8iDR9D/s320/2E69159D-7A49-4264-BB3A-5FA65FAD9BD3.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br /> From Putin´s abstruse historical perspective,
Russia´s military invasion of Ukraine is more akin to <i>civil war </i>than to a war between two sovereign nations. Putin´s war has
been explained by either his greed or by Russia´s grievance as NATO has
expanded East closer to Russia´s border over the past decades. “No grand theory
can explain the Ukraine crisis”?<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></a>
Take a little one then<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span></span></a>,
the seminal <i>Collier-Hoeffler </i>Model, a
model well known in conflict and development research<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span></span></a>.
It suggests to emphasize Putin´s greed and to act accordingly through aiming at
his wealth via targeting his oligarch trustees.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Using a rich dataset of wars (mostly for
Africa) during 1960–99, Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler found political and
social variables that are most obviously related to grievances had less
explanatory power than economic variables. For the current Ukraine context, it
means that we should give little credence to views that look at NATO´s
enlargement as a root cause for Russia´s military invasion(s). Rather, we
should emphasize economic motives for Putin´s war and identify targeted
economic instruments to stop him, beyond and above rapid military equipment of
Ukraine to withstand brutal Russian assault.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Putin has excelled at manipulating the
psychology of grievance. For years, he cultivated a narrative of humiliation by
the West. That narrative supported Russia´s occupation of Crimea in 2014, when
Putin´s popularity levels shot up to their highest ever levels. Again, Putin's
approval rating seems to have soared since he sent troops into Ukraine late
February 2022. Economic sanctions by the West hit the population, not Putin,
and are adding to Putin´s popularity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Large-group psychology and social conflict
have been investigated by psychiatrist <i>Vamik
Volkan</i> who conducted fieldwork in regions of war and unrest. Volkan found
that if societies don’t work through their sense of loss (of power, status, or
prestige) through a process of mourning, it can become central to group
identity – which in turn makes them vulnerable to manipulation by destructive
leaders who play on old wounds. Apart from Putin, Serbia´s Milosevic and Trump
(MAGA) are similar cases<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">No doubt, Putin is <i>greedy</i> (and very wealthy).<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" title=""><sup><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></sup></a>
According to financier Bill Browder, since
“Khodorkovsky's conviction (in 2003), Russian oligarchs went to Putin and asked
him what they needed to do to avoid sitting in the same cage as Khodorkovsky.
From what followed, it appeared that Putin's answer was, "50%" He
wasn't saying 50% for the Russian government or the presidential administration
of Russia, but 50% for Vladimir Putin personally."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In Ukraine, Putin´s greed can be satisfied
by the extortion of the victim´s natural resources (cereals, oilseeds, gas)
because annexation would make Russia a world leading supplier of fossile energy
and staple food. A recent <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9236en/cb9236en.pdf">Information
Note published by FAO</a> (Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN) has highlighted
the critical role that Russia and Ukraine play in global agriculture. In 2021,
both countries combined held major percentage shares of global exports in <i>wheat</i>, <i>barley</i> and <i>sunflowerseed oil</i>
(between 30 and 60%). The annexation of Ukraine would give Putin a huge
extortion potential as a quasi monopolist over staple food items, most
crucially important in poor Africa and Asia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The annexation of Ukraine would also
consolidate Russia´s de facto monopoly of gas exports to Europe as it would
capture the all important pipeline North Stream 1 run by <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/112421-feature-bypassing-ukrainian-gas-transit-the-only-goal-of-nord-stream-2-vitrenko">Ukraine´s
Naftogaz</a>. Russia has been also denying Central Asian countries access to
its own gas transport network, and consequently depriving them of access to
Ukrainian transport towards Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Sanctions are unlikely to be the best way
to stop Putin. Bill Browder (the largest foreign investor in Russia until 2005,
and now a leading campaigner to expose Russia's corruption and human rights
abuses), likens broad economic sanctions to nearly killing the patient to
target the cancer. Instead, he has suggested to sanction Putin´s oligarch
trustees, probably along international adoption of the US Magnitzky Act ((named
after his murdered Russian lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Since Russia's aggression against Ukraine,
Europeans have already frozen billions in assets belonging to oligarchs. Recently,
the EU Commission drew up an initial balance sheet: By April 8, assets of
oligarchs and companies worth a total of 30 billion euros had been frozen in
the member states. According to the Commission, these include ships,
helicopters, real estate and works of art worth almost 6.7 billion euros. In
addition, transactions worth around 200 billion euros had been blocked.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Some countries are obviously further along
than Germany in tracking Putin´s <i>Mafia</i>.
Italy has long recognized that fighting anti-money laundering is a prerequisite
for successfully combating the Mafia. Germany, by contrast, is a notorious bad
performer in reviews by the experts of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>.
Experience in the fight against organized crime also helps Italy freeze the
assets of Russian oligarchs, with the powerful <i>Guardia di Finanza</i> having far-reaching rights.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">So apart from military resistance and
secret service sabotage against Putin: Make Putin Poor Again!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Janan Ganesh (2022), “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/881c14dd-08ce-4266-8127-24f3c398e8d3">No grand
theory can explain the Ukraine crisis</a>”, <i>Financial
Times</i>, 12. April.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler (2004), “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/oep/article-abstract/56/4/563/2361902?login=false">Greed
and grievance in civil war</a>”, <i>Oxford
Economic Papers</i> 56, 563–595.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> A seminal paper on violent civil wars, has been the focus of much
of the greed-grievance debate. The model argues that certain natural resources
such as oil are tied to increased likelihood of conflict onset. The links
between natural resources and conflict were confirmed by the data, apart from
the level of per capita income and the rate of economic growth. Primary
commodity dependence raises the risk of civil war exponentially until it peaks
with exports at around 30 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Alex Evans (2022), “<a href="https://www.thearticle.com/putin-and-the-psychology-of-grievance">Putin
and the psychology of grievance</a>”, <i>The
Article</i>, 1<sup>st</sup> April.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/vladimir-putin-net-worth-2022/">https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/vladimir-putin-net-worth-2022/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Greed%20Grievance.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> The FATF is affiliated with the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris and is considered an important
international body for combating money laundering and terrorist financing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><div><div id="ftn6">
</div>
</div><div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-53046379712371766632022-03-14T12:42:00.005+01:002022-03-15T16:37:12.728+01:00After Putin´s War Crimes in Ukraine: Rupture and Sanctions after Shifting Wealth<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3sxEp7vD7OXd66ohiR_EOiVZpc0Exp8RfqoME0wqfjrkjKPVnJK5nazLoWjEfyS-4gOK5iSwSG2gR2QGKwvCcbXm1AQCgaYDWfF32lgT7RyZaqhwpSBrJVaK-f2xC1eigdTB6_ZfsYKbE2QGhtZ43SJU2X40a3O8f2yBEdtD6PI3EzanvEGRuhTHv=s300" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="300" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3sxEp7vD7OXd66ohiR_EOiVZpc0Exp8RfqoME0wqfjrkjKPVnJK5nazLoWjEfyS-4gOK5iSwSG2gR2QGKwvCcbXm1AQCgaYDWfF32lgT7RyZaqhwpSBrJVaK-f2xC1eigdTB6_ZfsYKbE2QGhtZ43SJU2X40a3O8f2yBEdtD6PI3EzanvEGRuhTHv" width="300" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Russia is now as totalitarian as is China. On
24th February, Putin´s Russia has invaded Ukraine, resorting to murderous shelling
while Ukraine was fighting for its freedom. This followed upon Russia´s
invasion of Crimea and the seizure of Ukrine´s Eastern Donetsk and Luhansk
regions in 2014. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">For at least a decade, Putin has built his
country´s food self-sufficiency by doubling its grain production since 2012.
The two inputs you need to sustain a long war are grains and energy - of which
Russia has plenty. The current account balance was switched from negative to
positive during that period, resulting in a built-up of a war chest at Russia´s
Central Bank, with foreign exchange held in China (12%) and gold reserves (22%)
vaulted at home; just 6.5% of Russia´s FX reserves were recently held in the US.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Xi Jinping has been the paramount leader of
China since 2012; he has hardened his grip ever since. He has suppressed
democracy movements in Hong Kong, threatened Taiwan and other neighbours. Last
not least, he forced internments, mass sterilisations, forced assimilation,
"re-education", and coercion of detained Uyghurs to work in
factories.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In 2022, geopolitical rupture looms. Global
governance is disintegrating into an American-dominated bloc and a
Chinese-dominated bloc, with Russia and the EU countries as junior partners.
Such hypothesis was pronounced by Clemens Fuest (IFO Munich) and by Martin Wolf
(FT)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Will economic divisions follow? The link between geopolitical and economic
division will be calibrated by sanctions, to the extent they are effective.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The BRICS and much of the “Global South”, a
risk overlooked by Western observers, might opt for the China-dominated bloc. With
a deep and prolonged division between the west and a bloc centred on China and
Russia, economic divisions will follow. Lack of mutual trust and humanitarian
concerns call for disintegration of the world economy after four decades of
intense globalisation. Military buildup will shrink the peace dividend for the
world; just as it did in Putin´s Russia except for the super rich oligarchs
over the past two decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Both China and Russia are important drivers
of the <a href="https://infobrics.org/">BRICS</a> (official website)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
joint with Brazil, India and South Africa. The BRICS, except South Africa, lead
the<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves#Timeline_of_the_top_5_countries">
list of countries with the highest foreign exchange (FX) reserves</a>, ahead of
Germany. Combined, they have built up official FX reserves worth round $ 6 trn,
mostly over the last two decades. Approved at the 2014 BRIC summit in Brazil, the
BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) provides protection against global
liquidity pressures. Since the 2015 BRICS summit in Russia, a BRICS payment
system conceived as an alternative to the SWIFT system has been established and
largely backed by China: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Interbank_Payment_System">Cross-Border
Interbank Payment System (CIPS)</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Despite a growing membership, the OECD
share in world GDP expressed in Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) stabilised
around 50% between 2011 and 2017 (latest benchmark year), according to the
International Comparison Program (ICP). Similarly, the share of large emerging
economies (China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation and South
Africa) also stabilised at around 30% of world GDP<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Political scientist Rachel S. Salzman (SAIS,
Johns Hopkins U) has documented in a fascinating study Russia´s leadership in
establishing the BRICS group<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
The desire to end US hegemony, rewrite rules and build new institutions is a
shared commitment of the group. In a time of alienation from the Euro-Atlantic
world, BRICS provides both China and Russia with international support.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Sanctions will drive geopolitical rupture
and economic division on a global scale. To which extent is less certain than
our own propaganda wants us to believe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Notably the exclusion of Russian banks from SWIFT was hailed by
banner-waving economists and politicians as the ´nuclear´ sanction to bring
Putin quickly down. However, Alistair Milne, Professor of Financial Economics
at Loughborough University (UK) has convincingly explained that throwing Russia
out of SWIFT will be quite ineffective, unlike freezing the reserve ssets of
the Central Bank of Russia that include gold reserves held at home<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The UN General Assembly Resolution against
Russia on 2nd March was an eye opener for many. To be sure, the “world wants an
end to the tremendous human suffering in Ukraine” (UN SG Antonio Guterres).
Only 141 of the total 198 UN member states of the UN General Assembly adopted a
resolution demanding that Russia immediately end its military operations in
Ukraine. Five countries - Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Russia and Syria -
voted against it, while 35 abstained. Africa´s voting behaviour must be a special
downer for DAC donors. Half of the (too) many African countries did not condemm
Russia´s attack on Ukraine. They rather preferred to abstain, go to be absent,
and Eritra was one of the very few countries to vote against the UN resolution.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The West may have thought that the
atrocities commited in Ukraine might entirely isolate Russia. However, it may
have overlooked to what extent non-Western countries have intensified economic
links aside from the West and how that may have created political ties,
supported by new institutions not ruled by the US. In short, the West has
ignored <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Shifting Wealth<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></i>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Clemens Fuest (2022), “<a href="https://www.ifo.de/en/node/68313">Economic
Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine</a>”, ifo Viewpoint 234, 4<sup>th</sup>
March: Martin Wolf (2022), “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/be932917-e467-4b7d-82b8-3ff4015874b3">Putin
has reignited the conflict between tyranny and liberal democracy</a>”, FT, 1<sup>st</sup>
March.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> The official website by mid March prominently displayed ´breaking
news´ such as “Russian Banks Turn to Chinese Payment Solution in Wake of
Sanctions”, or “Dr Reddy's (Indian pharmaceutical major) Plans 'Business
Continuity' in Russia”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> https://www.oecd.org/sdd/prices-ppp/oecd-share-in-world-gdp-stable-at-around-50-per-cent-in-ppp-terms-in-2017.htm<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Rachel S. Salzman (2019), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="http://press.georgetown.edu/book/georgetown/russia-brics-and-disruption-global-order?platform=hootsuite">Russia,
BRICS, and the Disruption of Global Order</a></i>, Georgetown University Press.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/people-profit/20220303-fortress-russia-has-putin-built-a-sanctions-proof-economy">https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/people-profit/20220303-fortress-russia-has-putin-built-a-sanctions-proof-economy</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/After%20Putin.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> OECD, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://www.oecd.org/dev/pgd/shiftingwealth.htm">Perspectives on Global
Development 2010: Shifting Wealth</a></i>, OECD Development Centre.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-62456477441972596272021-05-05T18:00:00.000+02:002021-05-05T18:00:24.667+02:00Germany´s Green NeoCons<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigSSfzlDelWafbPjzYfQnwt6krbUIIWkzXZCl3mi8AeXceZYuhslfZm7shQDfPhJK7xY0n3Ovwpr0tuDo1WDWD_xBme6ZmPxm8x1OMt5Re33TNbq9n3V2xdYhlTbnTz5abvgfzfo7UgjQ/s4032/IMG_5946.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigSSfzlDelWafbPjzYfQnwt6krbUIIWkzXZCl3mi8AeXceZYuhslfZm7shQDfPhJK7xY0n3Ovwpr0tuDo1WDWD_xBme6ZmPxm8x1OMt5Re33TNbq9n3V2xdYhlTbnTz5abvgfzfo7UgjQ/s320/IMG_5946.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">On her way to becoming chancellor,
Germany´s Green Party's Annalena Baerbock enjoys strong tailwinds. Election
polls for the 2021 federal election remain positive for the Greens, and the
public media are blowing the horns, too. The development of the Greens from
original pacifism of the founding generation to bellicose neo-conservatism
(along the lines of Albright, Bolton, Cheney or Wolfowitz) is cause for
concern.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The Greens are mainly targeting the
undisputedly blatant human rights violations in China and Russia. However, one
hears little from the Greens about human rights violations in Egypt, India,
Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or in the Western countries
themselves<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The threat of sanctions is a popular reflex
of moral indignation. If you search Google for "Baerbock Sanktionen"
(Baerbock sanctions), about 76300 results are retrieved in 0.36 seconds. Key
statements can be found in Baerbock's interview with the <a href="https://www.gruene.de/artikel/mit-dialog-und-haerte">Frankfurter
Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">- On Russia: "Moreover, there are
sanctions as tough measures, but they are permanently thwarted because the
German government is sticking to the Kremlin's most important prestige project,
the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. I would have withdrawn political support for
Nord Stream 2 long ago."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">- On China: "a different approach to
authoritarian regimes is a key issue for me in a future German government - for
our security and our values. We are currently in a contest of systems:
authoritarian forces versus liberal democracies. This is also about China. The
New Silk Road project, with its global direct investments in infrastructure or
energy networks, is not just about niceties. This is hard-core power
politics."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The candidate does not specify the threatened
sanctions. But no one should say afterwards that they knew nothing about it.
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (SPD) has already spoken of the "confrontation
cries" of the Greens. The drumbeat of the candidate for chancellor
suggests that the Green leadership is not sufficiently addressing the following
questions:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">1) Which sanctions against China or Russia
are effective at all? Sanctions ease the pressure of conscience, but their
effectiveness is doubted. An earlier study (GC Hufbauer, JJ Schott, KA Elliott,
1990) of sanctions in 115 countries since 1915 - by what is now the Peterson
Institute for International Economics - found that economic sanctions were
inadequate to implement foreign policy goals. Behavioural changes could only be
observed in small target countries and with modest sanction targets. Meanwhile,
in addition to trade and investment bans, 'modern' sanctions target financial
transactions, business activities and individuals. Therefore, from an
analytical perspective, an attribution problem arises in effectiveness studies
(Marten Smeets, WTO, 2018)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
With regard to Iran and Russia, Smeets doubts that sanctions can bring about
the change from an economic perspective that is often sought through the
punitive measures taken. However, economic sanctions in general cause costs in
all countries involved in the sanctions. The country facing the sanctions is
likely to establish trade relations with third parties that are not part of the
sanctions coalition.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">2) How high is the damage of sanctions for
Germany?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This question has been resolved
by a study that has attempted to isolate the effects of the Russian sanctions
since 2014<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Broken down to individual countries and product categories, it compares the hypothetical
development without sanctions with the weaker actual development. The
difference is the trade loss due to sanctions and counter-sanctions. The
European Union (EU) in turn bears 92 per cent. Germany accounted for the lion's
share of the sanctioning countries' damage, with 38 per cent or 667 million US
dollars in trade loss per month.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">3) Are there perverse effects whereby our
sanctions strengthen those in power in China, Russia, etc.? Julia Grauvogel
from the GIGA Institute analyses (IPG, 2020)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
that sanctions against authoritarian regimes like Russia pose a particular
challenge. Sanctions may even prove counterproductive there and strengthen
authoritarian regimes. Rulers can instrumentalise sanctions for their own
purposes if they succeed in presenting the measures as an attack on the entire
country. In this way, a chariot mentality can be conjured up against the common
external enemy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">"Made in Germany" effects<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
meanwhile, have already been observed in China and Russia. China is now
pursuing chip autonomy as a result of US sanctions, which is hurting the
still-leading American chip designers and hitting global supply chains through
chip shortages, such as in the automotive industry. Russia has imposed a ban on
food imports as a result of US sanctions, stimulating domestic production; at
the same time, food security is again a hot topic in import-dependent states.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">4) How can a sanctions merry-go-round be
stopped before it mutates into a military conflict? Western decision-makers are
regularly confronted with the question of whether to maintain previously
unsuccessful sanctions (Julia Grauvogel, IPG 2020). Therefore, it is important
to think about the possible end of the measures from the beginning. It is
easier to impose sanctions than to lift them again. Ending unsuccessful
sanctions poses a foreign policy dilemma; it can damage the reputation of the
sanctioning states. Clear predefined sanction targets may prevent such a loss
of reputation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The Greens would make their confrontational
rhetoric more credible if they first clearly pointed out the human rights
violations in Germany and in the Western allies. As long as their attacks
remain asymmetrically directed against authoritarian emerging countries, the
Greens come across as bellicose neoconservatives in foreign policy terms. They
are thus (in my view) a security risk for Germany and Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Compare regular reports at <a href="https://www.hrw.org/">Human Rights
Watch</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Marten Smeets (2018), “<a href="https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/176768/1/1016551045.pdf">Can
economic sanctions be effective?</a>”, WTO Staff Working Paper, No.
ERSD-2018-03.</span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz (2020), “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article-abstract/35/101/97/5836299">Friendly
fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions</a>”, <i>Economic
Policy</i>, Volume 35, Issue 101, January 2020, Pages 97–146.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> </span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Julia Grauvogel (2020), „</span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.ipg-journal.de/rubriken/aussen-und-sicherheitspolitik/artikel/un-sinn-von-sanktionen-4719/"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Über den (Un-)Sinn von Sanktionen</span></a></span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">“, <i>IPG Journal</i>, 13. </span><span lang="EN-GB">October.</span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Germanys%20Green%20NeoCons.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> The designation of origin "Made in Germany" was introduced
in Great Britain at the end of the 19th century as protection against
supposedly cheap and inferior imported goods. As is well known, the stigma
became a seal of quality.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-2725265848605882802021-04-18T08:10:00.001+02:002021-04-18T08:11:10.593+02:00Wenn etwas leicht<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3G8Fs0gFPfD5Ic10-Y6rxtWcRGdR9Lalf2-fVM2cxs_uqzeaagrZNERVUMnuYZ6NKMonFH0CxfKBSxu2sTdE78pxHLag_654DXhEjAcm7KrznAYrFNwZWikVVQexVUhCg5wfDIVm2Ejo/s2048/8EC63947-5C75-4F28-8721-E6FC6EB8D57F.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1536" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3G8Fs0gFPfD5Ic10-Y6rxtWcRGdR9Lalf2-fVM2cxs_uqzeaagrZNERVUMnuYZ6NKMonFH0CxfKBSxu2sTdE78pxHLag_654DXhEjAcm7KrznAYrFNwZWikVVQexVUhCg5wfDIVm2Ejo/s320/8EC63947-5C75-4F28-8721-E6FC6EB8D57F.jpeg" /></a></div><br /> <span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">GOTTFRIED BENN</span><p></p><p style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Wenn etwas leicht</p><p style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Wenn etwas leicht und rauschend um dich ist<br />wie die Glycinienpracht an dieser Mauer,<br />dann ist die Stunde jener Trauer,<br />daß du nicht reich und unerschöpflich bist.</p><p style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Nicht wie die Blüte oder wie das Licht:<br />in Strahlen kommend, sich verwandelnd,<br />an ähnlichen Gebilden handelnd,<br />die alle nur der eine Rausch verflicht,</p><p style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">der eine Samt, auf dem die Dinge ruh’n<br />so strömend und so unzerspalten,<br />die Grenze zieh’n, die Stunden halten<br />und nichts in jener Trauer tun.</p>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-84795824718775278402021-04-09T12:13:00.001+02:002021-04-09T13:58:21.616+02:00Democratic Recession in Major Emerging Countries <p> “Democracy Under Siege” titled <i>Freedom House</i> – a US government-funded
organisation (that survived the Trump reign) its latest annual <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege">“Freedom
in the World”</a> report. For the year 2020, it observed the 15th consecutive
year of decline in ´global freedom´. The <i>Freedom
House</i> annual global report is on ´political rights´ and ´civil liberties´,
composed of numerical ratings and descriptive texts for 195 countries (and 15
territories). ´Political rights´ encompass three subcategories: Electoral Process;
Political Pluralism and Participation; and Functioning of Government. ´Civil
liberties´are defined by four subcategories: Freedom of Expression and Belief;
Associational and Organizational Rights; Rule of Law; and Personal Autonomy and
Individual Rights.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Table 1 provides information on how
´freedom´ has evolved during the recent period 2013-20 with overall scores for
´freedom´ and its constituents ´political freedom´and ´civil liberties´ in
brackets. </span>The period is dictated by ready (raw) data availability. And Xi Jinping became China´s President in 2013.</p><p class="MsoNormal">I have critically examined political
rankings and indicators at several occasions; see <a href="https://www.ips-journal.eu/regions/global/the-worst-kind-of-index-4763/">here</a>
or <a href="http://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-abuse-of-governance-indicators.html">here</a>,
notably. Nonetheless, the Freedom House indices provide some evidence on political governance, a theme that lends
itself too easily to factless beliefs and insinuations. When in doubt, I prefer even political numbers over blindnesss.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Table 1: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Political Freedom
& Civil Liberties in Selected Emerging Countries</b>, 2013-20<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Country<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">2013<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">2020<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Trend<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Brazil*<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">81 <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">74<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">China*<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">17<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">09<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Egypt ^<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">41<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">18<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↓</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">India*<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">76<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">67<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Indonesia<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">65<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">59<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Nigeria<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">46<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">45<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">→</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Russia*<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">27<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">20<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Turkey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">61<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">32<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↓</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">South Africa<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">81<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">79<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">→</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Memo: USA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.25pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">93<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">83<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 113.3pt;" valign="top" width="227">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Notes: * BRICS member; ^ CwA partner.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">Source: <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/reports/freedom-world/freedom-world-research-methodology">https://freedomhouse.org/reports/freedom-world/freedom-world-research-methodology</a>.
All Data, FIW 2013-2021 (Excel Download).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span>Western media and politicians have focused on deteriorated political
landscapes in China, Russia, Turkey – and the United States under the Trump
Administration (2017-21). However, Egypt - a preferred destination of foreign
capital and partner of the G20 ´Compact with Africa´ - has seen its freedom
index tumble most steeply, in parallel with Turkey. Only the African giants
Nigeria and South Africa have upheld freedom scores as measured by Freedom
House.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br /></p>
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<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
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<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><br /></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-70302521545345972212021-03-07T17:28:00.003+01:002021-03-07T17:53:23.282+01:00How to dispose of Corona debt<p> Published on 4<sup>th</sup> March 2021 in German at MakronomMagazin</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://makronom.de/wie-sich-die-corona-schulden-entsorgen-lassen-38585">https://makronom.de/wie-sich-die-corona-schulden-entsorgen-lassen-38585</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span>The EU states could deal with public debt,
which rose sharply in the Corona crisis, in various ways. How promising are the
individual options? An analysis by Helmut Reisen.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Like other pandemics before it, the current
Corona pandemic will eventually end - <a href="https://www.quarks.de/gesundheit/medizin/so-enden-pandemien/" target="_blank">either "medically" or "socially"</a>. The <i>medical
end </i>occurs when the number of people who fall ill drops sharply. The <i>social
end </i>takes place mainly in people's minds. It occurs when the fear of the
disease decreases, people no longer want to accept the restrictions - and learn
to live with the disease.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The same applies to the economic policy
course, which will have to deal with the aftermath of the crisis. In Germany,
the public dispute about the Corona pandemic has been very poisoned for quite
some time, and unfortunately this increasingly applies to economic policy
debates as well. Thus, in the meantime, it seems that even invective with <a href="https://reibreisen.blogspot.com/2021/02/staatsschulden-in-kriegszeiten.html" target="_blank"><i>ad hominem </i>attacks in the </a>ostensibly serious daily
press regarding the financing of the pandemic measures is acceptable. This
article is intended to help keep a cool head in the debate by outlining the
various options for dealing with the national debt.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Historical lessons<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The social and economic consequences of the
virus have acted as an exogenous shock on public debt. The pandemic will leave
behind high public debt/GDP ratios. There is ample historical evidence to learn
from: The last 150 years have provided us with enough illustrative material on
how advanced nations have dealt with debt. The Great Depression of 1929-33, the
world wars of the 20th century and the world financial crisis of 2007-09 were
also exogenous shocks that resulted in high government debt ratios in advanced
countries. The Federal Reserve's Volcker monetary shock inflated emerging
market sovereign debt in the 1980s via the dollar, commodity prices and
interest rates. High public debt was also <i>endogenous in </i>these countries,
for example as a result of balance sheet currency mismatches or loss-making
state-owned enterprises.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Three notable periods of public debt relief
can be identified, in the decades before World War I and in the period from the
end of World War II to the beginning of the 1970s. The mean value of government
debt often reached around 150% of GDP before being reduced to a value of around
40%. </span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">What were the main drivers of
this erosion?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span lang="EN-GB">A recent study by <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25494/w25494.pdf" target="_blank">Eichengreen et al. </a>describes three successful episodes
of debt consolidation before World War I: Great Britain after the
Napoleonic Wars, the United States in the last third of the 19th century
and France in the decades before 1913. The Napoleonic Wars, the
Franco-Prussian War and the US Civil War were the three most expensive
military conflicts of the 19th century, resulting in debt-financed war
spending. Debt relief after these wars was carried out in all three states
primarily through primary surpluses in view of positive interest
rate-growth differentials (interest rates were higher than growth).<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span lang="EN-GB">After the Second World War, debt ratios in the developed
economies fell rapidly. They reached the pre-World War I level in the
1960s. However, this was primarily caused not by budget surpluses but by <a href="https://www.jfki.fu-berlin.de/faculty/economics/Ehemalige_Mitarbeiter_innen/schularick/VSWG_Schularick_Staatsverschuldung_in_der_westlichen_Welt.pdf" target="_blank">the rapid expansion of nominal GDP</a>. The post-war boom
had various labels: Erhard's "economic miracle years" in
Germany, "Les Trente Glorieuses" in France, "Il Boom
Economico" in Italy. In the case of Germany, the debt cancellations
of 1948 and 1953 by the Allied victorious powers also depressed the debt
ratio.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span lang="EN-GB">Towards the end of the 20th century, public debt ratios in the
poorest countries fell rapidly and initially remained at a fairly low
level. The main reason for this was the HIPC initiative of the Bretton
Woods sisters in 1996 in favour of mostly African low-income countries.
These had not benefited from the Brady Plan of 1989, <a href="https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9021.pdf" target="_blank">which had mainly provided debt relief to Latin American
emerging countries</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Today, after a year of the Covid pandemic,
the Maastricht criterion of a 60% ceiling for the debt-to-GDP ratio is being
blatantly missed, especially in Latin Europe. How can the highly indebted EU
states get off their Covid debt? And: does that even make sense with the
current interest "costs", which are close to or occasionally below
zero?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Debt dynamics<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Public debt as a percentage of GDP only
declines if nominal GDP growth exceeds interest and is not compensated by the
interest-adjusted budget deficit (primary deficit). In the (first) Covid year
2020, the public debt ratio skyrocketed despite massive EU support, especially
in Latin Europe, which suffered additionally from the loss of tourism.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span lang="EN-GB">The purchase of government bonds by
the ECB and the national central banks is thus broadly equivalent to debt
relief for the state<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In 2020, the ratio of growth to interest
rates was naturally unfavourable due to the covid recession. But if the euro
countries recover economically in the current year, this relationship will be
reversed. On the one hand, market interest rates are currently still negative
or very low, on the other hand, governments de facto no longer have to pay
interest on their outstanding bonds held by the Eurosystem: The government pays
interest to the central bank, which now holds the bonds, but the central bank
usually returns this interest income to the government. So the purchase of government
bonds by the ECB and the national central banks is broadly <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/02/15/debt-cancellation-by-the-ecb-does-it-make-a-difference/" target="_blank">equivalent to debt relief for the government</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Debt relief<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Led by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Thomas
Piketty</i>, over 100 economists have <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2021/02/05/la-bce-peut-offrir-aux-etats-europeens-les-moyens-de-leur-reconstruction-ecologique-sociale-economique-et-culturelle_6068861_3232.html" target="_blank">proposed debt relief</a>. They argue that this would allow
governments to issue new debt unencumbered by old debt to finance major
projects. In doing so, the signatories also refer to the London Debt Agreement
of 1953, a radical plan to cancel half of Germany's foreign debt and create
generous repayment terms for the remaining debt. The agreement boosted <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ereh/article/23/1/1/4995332" target="_blank">Germany's
economic growth </a>by creating fiscal space for public investment, lowering
borrowing costs and stabilising inflation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">However, the idea that a selective default
on the debt held by the ECB would be without consequences is <a href="https://www.nouvelobs.com/chroniques/20201217.OBS37662/faut-il-s-inquieter-de-la-dette-covid.html" target="_blank">unrealistic</a>. Such a decision would at least have the effect
of closing the umbrella offered by the ECB today and increasing the cost of
re-leveraging or refinancing the remaining debt. Debt relief limited to
individual countries is also ruled out because of the immediate contagion
effects. Finally, from a purely accounting point of view, the benefit of
repudiation would be zero in the short term: after all, the debt repurchased by
the ECB was acquired by the central banks of the Eurosystem, which on-lend the
proceeds accruing to it to their finance ministers.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Inflation<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">As long as the ECB sticks to the inflation
target of 2% (and does not allow medium-term overshoots), it must reduce base
money M0 if it misses the target. The ECB sells either government bonds or its
own interest-bearing bonds, thus taking back the seigniorage it granted the
government when it bought the bonds.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">It would be different if the ECB allowed <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">more inflation in the future</i>, i.e. did
not counteract it when inflation was above 2%. Then it would not have to sell
the bonds (or issue its own bonds). In this case, higher inflation would reduce
the real value of government debt that is not on the central bank's balance
sheet and that has been issued at very low interest rates in recent years.
Governments would win first, while private bondholders would have to
"pay" for the higher inflation. Nominal interest rates would rise,
lowering the price of the long-term government bonds that these investors
bought at negative or zero interest rates. The inflationary surprise loss would
subsequently make government bond financing more difficult and more expensive.
In addition, tax revenues could fall in real terms when inflation is high as a
result of the so-called <i>Tanzi effect.</i><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Financial repression<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Carmen Reinhart and Bélen Sbrancia have
shown in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article-abstract/30/82/291/2392367" target="_blank">a widely acclaimed study </a>how governments could get rid of
their debt burdens by means of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">financial
repression</i>. Financial repression, like a tax on bondholders and savers
through negative or below-market real interest rates, reduces government debt.
It is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by moderate
inflation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">After World War II, capital controls and
regulatory restrictions created compulsory buyers of government debt and
limited the erosion of the tax base. From 1945 to 1980, interest rates in
advanced countries were negative about half the time - so savers paid on top
when they lent money to the government. Britain and the United States
liquidated debts averaging 3 to 4% of GDP annually as a result. In Australia
and Italy, where inflation was particularly high, liquidation rates averaged
more than 5%. Average annual savings in interest expenditure for a sample of
twelve countries range from about 1% to 5% of GDP for the entire period
1945-80.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">However, the fiscal yield of financial
repression will be lower today in the Eurozone than it was then. Even Greece
was able to <a href="https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/anleihen/anleihen-neuer-griechenland-bond-wird-zum-begehrten-objekt-am-markt/26857206.html?ticket=ST-6296452-BZigBexBByixuQvQVew6-ap6" target="_blank">sell </a>an eight times oversubscribed ten-year government bond
to investors at 0.8% just a few weeks ago. In addition, 80% of Greek government
debt is held by public creditors such as the Euro Stability Fund (ESM). As part
of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), the ECB is also buying
Greek government bonds, despite the securities being classified as
non-investment grade.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Austerity<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The key determinant of future debt stability
is the ratio of interest rates to growth, more specifically the average cost of
debt minus nominal GDP growth. This interest-growth differential is the <i>black
box of </i>debt dynamics: countries where nominal GDP grows at a rate identical
to the average cost of debt can stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio by maintaining
a balanced primary budget. States whose GDP in nominal local currency grows
faster than the average cost of debt can stabilise debt by running a primary
budget deficit (the size of this debt-stabilising primary balance or <i>DSPB </i>is
determined by the level of debt relative to GDP in the previous year and the
difference between interest and growth). In contrast, countries that pay more
on their debt than nominal GDP grows must run primary surpluses to stabilise
the debt-to-GDP ratio.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span lang="EN-GB">The interest rate-growth differential
is the ´black box´ of debt dynamics<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Using a historical database of average
effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over a period of up to
200 years, Paolo Mauro and Jing Zhou <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/03/13/r-minus-g-negative-Can-We-Sleep-More-Soundly-49068" target="_blank">documented in an IMF study that </a>negative interest
rate-growth differentials occurred more frequently in both advanced and
emerging market economies and often persist over long historical periods. In
such periods, the debt ratio erodes with comparatively little fiscal
discipline.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">At the IMF, such a result cannot simply be
left standing. Therefore, Mauro and Zhou point to the low information content
of average interest costs: the default history of sovereigns shows that after
longer periods of low differentials based on average effective interest rates,
marginal borrowing costs can suddenly and sharply increase and countries can be
excluded from the financial markets in the short term.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And even if interest rates are quite low,
this does not mean that there is a fiscal <i>free lunch </i>in dynamically
efficient countries, as <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ricardo Reis</i>,
currently much respected among "fiscal hawks", <a href="https://iepecdg.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/mpkrg-201112.pdf" target="_blank">argues</a>. The label <a href="http://www.econ.ucla.edu/fgeerolf/research/Efficiency_Emp.pdf" target="_blank">"dynamic efficiency" does not apply to Germany</a>, <a href="http://www.econ.ucla.edu/fgeerolf/research/Efficiency_Emp.pdf" target="_blank"></a>as the Federal Republic saves too much at the expense of
current generations and produces high current account surpluses.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span lang="EN-GB">The Maastricht criterion has lost all
credibility and thus binding after the Covid pandemic<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The following table gives an impression of
the scope of the task: The "debt ratio stable primary budget
position" (DSPB) reflects the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210202-sizing-sovereign-debt-and-the-great-fiscal-unwind-11824774" target="_blank">calculations of the rating agency S&P </a>for the necessary
primary budget of the countries to avoid a further increase in the respective
debt ratios until 2023.* In Belgium, France, Italy and Spain, the primary
balance would have to increase by more than 10 percentage points of GDP
compared to the negative balance of 2020 in order to consolidate the budget in
this way. The interest-adjusted primary budget will have to come down from the
negative balance of 2020 at the latest after the end of the pandemic. In
principle, this can only be done by increasing tax revenues or cutting
spending, whereby an increase in tax rates can be just as counterproductive in
fiscal terms as spending cuts are harmful in terms of growth policy, even if
the EU's reconstruction fund, financed for the first time by common European
bonds, will cushion some hardships.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The shortcoming of such calculations of
debt dynamics is, among other things, that a higher debt ratio requires a lower
primary surplus; therefore, according to S&P, Greece would manage with less
austerity. The last column therefore shows my calculations of how many years it
would take to squeeze government debt back below the Maastricht criterion of
60% at S&P's projected interest rate differentials to growth. In some
cases, it would take several generations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Parameters of debt dynamics in some EU
countries (2020)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="3" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-bottom: solid #111111 1.0pt; border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #111111 .75pt; mso-cellspacing: 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<thead>
<tr style="height: 51.45pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border-bottom: solid #111111 1.0pt; border: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #111111 .75pt; padding: 7.5pt 13.5pt 7.5pt 13.5pt; width: 74.35pt;" width="149">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Country<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #111111 1.0pt; border: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #111111 .75pt; padding: 7.5pt 13.5pt 7.5pt 13.5pt; width: 86.15pt;" width="172">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-size: x-small;">DEBT RATIO (IN % OF GDP)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #111111 1.0pt; border: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #111111 .75pt; padding: 7.5pt 13.5pt 7.5pt 13.5pt; width: 105.25pt;" width="211">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-size: x-small;">PRIMARY BUDGET (IN % OF GDP)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #111111 1.0pt; border: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #111111 .75pt; padding: 7.5pt 13.5pt 7.5pt 13.5pt; width: 64.7pt;" width="129">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">DSPB* 2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #111111 1.0pt; border: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #111111 .75pt; padding: 7.5pt 13.5pt 7.5pt 13.5pt; width: 114.15pt;" width="228">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">YEARS TO
MAASTRICHT**<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr style="height: 51.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 74.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Greece<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 86.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="172">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">205.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 105.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="211">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-7.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 64.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="129">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-0.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border: none; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 114.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="228">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">30<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 51.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 74.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Italy<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 86.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="172">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">155.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 105.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="211">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-7.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 64.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="129">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">6.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 114.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="228">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">96<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 51.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 74.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Portugal<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 86.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="172">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">143.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 105.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="211">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-4.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 64.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="129">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">0.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 114.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="228">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">32<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 51.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 74.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Spain<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 86.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="172">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">117.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 105.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="211">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-9.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 64.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="129">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">6.5<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 114.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="228">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">22<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 51.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 74.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">France<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 86.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="172">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">113.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 105.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="211">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-8.5<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 64.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="129">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">5.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 114.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="228">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">24<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 51.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 74.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Belgium<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 86.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="172">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">113.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 105.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="211">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-8.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 64.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="129">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">7.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 114.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="228">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">53<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 51.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 74.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Median Eurozone<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 86.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="172">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">86.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 105.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="211">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-6.7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 64.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="129">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">4.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 114.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="228">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">13<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 51.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 74.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="149">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Memo: Germany<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 86.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="172">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">66.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 105.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="211">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-5.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 64.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="129">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">4.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: white; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-right: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; border-top: solid #DDDDDD 1.0pt; height: 51.45pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #DDDDDD .75pt; padding: 6.0pt 7.5pt 6.0pt 7.5pt; width: 114.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="228">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: x-small;">4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-GB">*Debt ratio stable primary budgetary position (DSPB) until 2023. R=(D/Y)/0.6.
**"Years to Maastricht" calculated from J=-(ln R/(g-i,%)). </span>Sources : own calculations; S&P Global
(2021), Sizing <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210202-sizing-sovereign-debt-and-the-great-fiscal-unwind-11824774">Sovereign
Debt and the Great Fiscal Unwind</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Because of many uncertainties, precise
figures are less important here than the message: the Maastricht criterion has,
in my view, lost all credibility and thus commitment after the Covid pandemic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Perpetual debt<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Among others, <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/finance-european-union-recovery-with-perpetual-bonds-by-george-soros-2020-04?barrier=accesspaylog" target="_blank">George Soros </a>or <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/european-union-covid-reconstruction-fund-by-guy-verhofstadt-and-luis-garicano-2020-04?barrier=accesspaylog" target="_blank">Guy Verhoefstadt </a>have recently called for the issuance of <i>perpetual
bonds</i>, also called <i>consols </i>or <i>perpetuals.</i> These have an
infinite maturity and pay an annual coupon. Their principal is never repaid.
The main argument for issuing perpetual bonds is that the EU should take
advantage of the low interest rate environment to lock in low interest rates
through perpetual bonds. Perpetual bonds are also not subject to refinancing
risk as they never need to be rolled over.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Would perpetual bonds be a low-cost
repository solution? Given today's very low yields, it may be worthwhile for
issuers to take on long-term debt at favourable conditions. But financial
mathematicians are <a href="https://www.hec.edu/en/knowledge/instants/should-eu-issue-perpetual-bonds" target="_blank">rather unimpressed </a><a name="_ftnref15"></a>. With a
positive yield, a perpetual bond is a comparatively expensive source of funding
compared to issuing ten-year bonds, which currently trade at rates below 0%.
The yield is the average interest rate over all coupon terms, weighted by the
present value of each interest coupon. However, it is difficult to make this
calculation for a perpetual bond because we cannot observe interest rates to
infinity. The ECB yield curve stops at 30 years because there are few bonds
with a maturity longer than 30 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Yield curve of Eurosystem government
bonds<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMJdtGBsI5eIWAIBCuRjjtBJDGbYlOaZ_Drp3Fmc5yFICvAIsTgXX_n-cdMxnWE9SYBB_GLxMpjX9yqEk5hDWrkf1OpvzTDFBnTaGLEk5uVc-5EM0eibo6umLwCKQxeLNJK2y2ZKdLm7M/s1216/ECB+Yield+Curves.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="710" data-original-width="1216" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMJdtGBsI5eIWAIBCuRjjtBJDGbYlOaZ_Drp3Fmc5yFICvAIsTgXX_n-cdMxnWE9SYBB_GLxMpjX9yqEk5hDWrkf1OpvzTDFBnTaGLEk5uVc-5EM0eibo6umLwCKQxeLNJK2y2ZKdLm7M/w400-h234/ECB+Yield+Curves.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal">Source: <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/financial_markets_and_interest_rates/euro_area_yield_curves/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">ECB</a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The well-rated Republic of Austria (S&P
rating: AA+) is a pioneer in Euroland for government bonds with extremely long
maturities. It issued a 100-year bond with a coupon of 2.1% in 2017 and
increased it to six billion euros in 2019. Currently, the yield is just below
one per cent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/a2876z-frankreich-anleihe" target="_blank">51-year bond with a coupon of 0.5% of </a>the less well-rated
France (S&P: AA) currently yields similarly high. The question is above all
<a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/bonds-are-not-the-place-to-be-these-days-warns-warren-buffett-121022800114_1.html" target="_blank">who will want to invest in such long-dated bonds </a>when
yields rise at the long end.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span lang="EN-GB">There is no such thing as a 'jack of
all trades', but any variant will produce winners and losers, whether they are
governments, their taxpayers or bondholders.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Currently, there is a high demand for these
ultra-long maturity bonds, so their monetisation by the Eurosystem is not
necessary. Why? Institutional investors or endowment funds usually use
long-dated bonds to <a href="https://moneyweek.com/investments/bonds/government-bonds/602086/why-would-anyone-ever-buy-a-100-year-bond?amp" target="_blank">extend the maturity of their bond portfolios</a>. The addition
on their asset side helps them to reflect the maturity structure of their obligations
(liabilities). Austria, like many other developed countries, is considered
low-risk, so investing in the 100-year bond will at least give investors a
positive long-term return - in contrast, many shorter-dated government bonds in
Europe currently have negative returns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Bonds with ultra-long durations also benefit from "positive
convexity": if investors own long-dated bonds with low coupons (low
payouts), their purchase price increases more when yields fall. Conversely,
when yields rise, investors benefit from an implicit asymmetry of highly convex
bonds. Indeed, the price of a bond with high convexity falls less when yields
rise than it rises when yields fall.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Every variant has winners and losers<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">And the moral of the story? The multitude
of historical examples of debt consolidation today inform us about different
options: with and without austerity, with and without (de facto) debt repudiation,
with and without financial repression or inflation. Surely, combinations of
different variants are also possible, which allows policymakers to pursue the
strategy of consolidating or disposing of high pandemic debt with multiple
instruments.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">It should also have become clear that there
is no such thing as a 'jack-of-all-trades', but that each variant will produce
winners and losers, whether they are governments, their taxpayers or
bondholders. Who wins or loses exactly how much and when must ultimately be
decided in the democratic process. For the selection and weighting of these
options is the responsibility of neither economists nor journalists, but
parliaments, governments and their voters, who should be as well informed as
possible about the consequences of these decisions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-37773092367144426902021-02-06T12:32:00.000+01:002021-02-06T12:32:23.147+01:00Tunesia: Little Hope but Donor Praise?<p>(This post, a translated version of my article in <a href="https://makronom.de/tunesien-vom-arabischen-fruehling-in-den-covid-winter-38250" style="font-style: italic;">MakronomMagazin</a>, replaces an earlier post here on Tunesia.)</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p>On the tenth anniversary of the <i>Arabellion, </i>Tunisia´s youth fought
street battles with the police. <a href="https://de.euronews.com/2020/12/17/zehn-jahre-arabischer-fruhling-war-es-das">People
are angry and disappointed about the desolate situation of the country</a>.
"Those in power are now others, the system has remained". "What
good is press freedom if I have no work?" they complain.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The Federal Ministry for Economic
Cooperation and Development (BMZ) has significantly increased funding for
Tunisia over the last decade. At the heart of Germany's engagement is the
reform partnership with Tunisia within the framework of the <i>Marshall Plan with Africa</i>. It was
concluded in 2017 as a bilateral contribution to the G20 <i>Compact with Africa </i>initiative. <a href="https://www.bmz.de/de/laender_regionen/naher_osten_nordafrika/tunesien/index.jsp">According
to the BMZ, Tunisia is a beacon of political hope in North Africa</a><a href="https://www.bmz.de/de/laender_regionen/naher_osten_nordafrika/tunesien/index.jsp">
</a>and, after a long phase of dictatorship, is on its way to transforming
itself peacefully into a constitutional state. Despite political and social
tensions, democratic development in the country is considered exemplary, says
the BMZ on its official Tunisia page. Civil society has been strengthened after
the end of the Ben Ali regime. The Federation of Trade Unions, the Employers'
Association, the Human Rights League and the Bar Association were honoured with
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015. In short: Tunisia is a donor darling and, in the
eyes of many "Westerners", something of a prime example of a
successful democratic transformation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Recent analysis praises</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Tunisia's comparatively good <i>social contract </i>and its
inclusive development model. But doubts are allowed as to whether Tunisians on
the ground also see it that way. <a href="http://www.sofiannaceur.de/2021/01/gekippte-stimmung-in-tunesien/">Violent
clashes between demonstrators and the police, looting of supermarkets and
hundreds of arrests currently characterise the Tunisian provinces and cities</a>.
Libanese economist Ishac Diwan warned some time ago that things were getting
out of hand in Tunisia</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><span lang="EN-GB">. Even before the Covid pandemic, cronyism and illegal underground
activities were draining the growth of Tunisia's economy - except from the
corruption-prone construction sector - a consequence of weakened state capacity
to enforce law and order. While public investment languished at 5% of GDP, the
public wage bill rose from 10 to 15% of GDP over the past decade. The increase
in social spending also benefited mainly civil servants, not the poor
hinterland. The Gini coefficient remained high, at 40%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Nearby Italy in particular is feeling the
unabated <a href="https://de.euronews.com/2020/09/30/migrationswelle-aus-tunesien">wave of
migration from Tunisia</a>. In Tunisia, illegal emigration to Europe, typically
by boat, is commonly referred to as <i>Harqa
</i>(Arabic for burning the border). <i>Harqa
</i>is an exit strategy for those who experience severe marginalisation at
home. While Tunisia is also a transit country for migrants from sub-Saharan
Africa, it is primarily a country of origin. According to <a href="https://migrationdataportal.org/data?i=flows_abs_emig1&t=2013&cm49=788">Migrationdataportal,
</a>Tunisia's total migration loss (immigration - emigration) between 2011 and
2020 was 170,000 . Almost 7% of Tunisia's population (nearly 12 million) live
abroad. In 2020, the Tunisian diaspora supported the notoriously deficit-ridden
current account balance with private remittances amounting to 5% of national
income (GNP).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">A multitude of problems continue to plague
Tunisia after the Arab Spring. Some prominent examples are the stagnation of
the nationwide standard of living, pervasive corruption and an exceedingly high
unemployment rate. According to the IMF, the external value of the dinar
against the euro has halved since the Arab Spring, and foreign exchange
reserves have also halved over the past decade </span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><sup><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></sup></a><span lang="EN-GB">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Of course, the covid pandemic hit Tunisia
particularly hard, as employment and foreign exchange earnings depend heavily
on tourism. But according to OECD analysis</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><span lang="EN-GB">, direct investors have been very reluctant to invest since the Arab
Spring, so the country has not been able to diversify away from its dependence
on tourism by creating new jobs. Formal employment has grown too little to
engage the youth and give them a perspective. The relatively good education of
young Tunisians also implies frictions in labour supply: What kind of industrial
manufacturing jobs are even accepted? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Advice comes easy from "backbenchers"
in Washington, Paris or Berlin</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><span lang="EN-GB">. It is known <i>ad nauseam</i>:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">promote labour-intensive
industries, ideally through attractive location conditions for foreign direct
investment; <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">reduce or eliminate subsidies
for fossil fuels; <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">consolidate the state budget by
cutting public consumption.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">However, the government's fiscal space and
the people's patience seem to be exhausted. Cutting public consumption, half of
which is civil servants' salaries, would also turn civil servants against the
government.... High energy prices hit the province and the poorer part of the
population. Foreign direct investors, despite lower political governance
scores, prefer Egypt as a destination, where the military complex determines
industrial policy and guarantees the security of direct investment </span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><span lang="EN-GB">. Is Tunisia's young population too close to Europe and too well
educated for the Asian model of transformation through labour-intensive
industries to really have a chance there? A mismatch between skills supplied by
the formally well-educated youth and the basic skills required for labour-rich
manufacturing may stand in the way of replicating East Asian development
strategies. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">No doubt: In principle, Tunisia has undeniable
assets and is quite well integrated into global value chains: its geographic
location on the border between Europe and Africa, many years of investment in
education, specialisation in future niches, including the pharmaceutical or information
technology sectors. However, Tunisia's attractiveness suffers from<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 38.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">the numerous, often cumbersome
regulations and administrative procedures, <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">the foreign investment regulations,
which are more restrictive than in Egypt and Morocco, and <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 38.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">the delays in crossing the
border (customs and transport logistics), which are often longer than
elsewhere. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 38.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">Some investors also complained
about a skills gap, even though 28 per cent of graduates are unemployed. </span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">A remark made in 2017 by the Middle East
expert Torelli of the Roman policy institute ISPI (<i>Istituto per gli studi di politica internazionale</i>) rings today as a
warning</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> , also for the BMZ: "One of the mistakes of recent years has
been the EU's tendency to sing the praises of Tunisian democratisation. While
the country has achieved a good degree of formal democracy, there are still
many critical problems related to the economy and political instability." Consensus
politics against a backdrop of rising polarisation between Islamists and
secularists has stymied Tunisian politics.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In retrospect, euphoric donor rhetoric (praising
Tunisia´s rule of law and human rights) has proved counterproductive by
intensifying authorities´ moral hazard. The Tunisian government had the upper
hand in renegotiations with the IMF and multilateral lenders, not least backed
by donor rhetoric. Conditionality was undermined (especially with regard to
wage costs in the public sector), without impact on disbursements (Diwan, 2019,
op.cit.). On the other hand: Instead of warm words, the EU has not been able to
offer tangible incentives for higher productivity - such as an accession
perspective along the lines of EU enlargement to the East. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgySznNzkbY6FTMly4c-WLBpeMhVXoGi_EJnX6x_5-LC0xHSogr6k_rgjmp3oISXIPcfFDBn8eGqIqDKo8OR543NieMEqMjesxj3nXCn1MpU5GKUE3_Hwromn56AQSEhqqn1Q9Ac1KYEoU/s913/Tunis+Medina.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="745" data-original-width="913" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgySznNzkbY6FTMly4c-WLBpeMhVXoGi_EJnX6x_5-LC0xHSogr6k_rgjmp3oISXIPcfFDBn8eGqIqDKo8OR543NieMEqMjesxj3nXCn1MpU5GKUE3_Hwromn56AQSEhqqn1Q9Ac1KYEoU/s320/Tunis+Medina.PNG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<div><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19304231#!"> </a>Amirah
El-Haddad (2020), "<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19304231#!">Redefining
the social contract in the wake of the Arab Spring: The experiences of Egypt,
Morocco and Tunisia</a>", <i>World
Development </i>, Vol. 127, March 2020, 104774. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.arab-reform.net/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Arab_Reform_Initiative_en_tunisias-upcoming-challenge-fixing-the-economy-before-its-too-late_6582.pdf"><i> </i></a>Ishac Diwan (2019), <a href="https://www.arab-reform.net/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Arab_Reform_Initiative_en_tunisias-upcoming-challenge-fixing-the-economy-before-its-too-late_6582.pdf"><i>Tunisia's Upcoming Challenge: Fixing the
Economy Before It's Too Late</i></a>, Arab Reform Initiative, Bawader, 23. September.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> IMF (2019), <a href="https://www.compactwithafrica.org/content/dam/Compact%20with%20Africa/Countries/Tunisia/1TUNEA2019001.pdf"><i>Tunisia</i></a>, IMF Country Report No.
19/223, July.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> </span><span lang="EN-GB">OECD
(2020), <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/a2dfb694-en"><i>Tunisia</i></a>, in OECD
Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 2, OECD Publishing, Paris.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Vgl. <a href="https://www.compactwithafrica.org/content/compactwithafrica/home/compact-countries/tunisia.html">https://www.</a>compactwithafrica.org/content/compactwithafrica/home/compact-countries/tunisia.html;
IMF (2019), op.cit.; und OECD (2020), op.cit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Amirah El-Haddad (2020), op.cit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.leaders.com.tn/article/29946-isabelle-joumard-les-pays-emergents-ne-sont-pas-tous-loges-a-la-meme-enseigne-face-a-la-crise-covid-et-a-la-reorganisation-des-chaines-de-valeur-mondiales">
</a>Isabelle Joumard (2020), "<a href="https://www.leaders.com.tn/article/29946-isabelle-joumard-les-pays-emergents-ne-sont-pas-tous-loges-a-la-meme-enseigne-face-a-la-crise-covid-et-a-la-reorganisation-des-chaines-de-valeur-mondiales">Emerging
countries are not all in the same boat in the face of the Covid crisis and the
reorganisation of global value chains</a>", <i>Leaders, </i>Tunis, 17 May.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Downloads/Tunesien%20im%20Covid%20Winter.PS_HR%20Makronom%20en.docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Stefano Torelli (2017), "<a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_escaping_from_tunisia_7236/">Escaping
from Tunisia</a>", Brüssel: European Council on Foreign Relation,
Commentary #7236, 10. November.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><div><div id="ftn11">
</div>
</div><div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><div id="ftn11" style="mso-element: footnote;">
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-67804607922087568372021-01-19T13:01:00.002+01:002021-01-19T13:01:15.554+01:00France: Administrative Elite and the Province Determine the Pace of Reform<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfpArJapE1D3S3MiuDu6CUmrurduomuYK48QPSB14bAokIIV2X6Fz9FyWpzzSsYUlambg1mpX9jdViK5rpJ386ldI6NRUOP-82xt0wwpnwVHdBAoMsgFz1bpXShTDlJfo26yegHbhEojE/s1406/IMG_0206.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="639" data-original-width="1406" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfpArJapE1D3S3MiuDu6CUmrurduomuYK48QPSB14bAokIIV2X6Fz9FyWpzzSsYUlambg1mpX9jdViK5rpJ386ldI6NRUOP-82xt0wwpnwVHdBAoMsgFz1bpXShTDlJfo26yegHbhEojE/w400-h183/IMG_0206.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">This article follows my summary of the essay
by the young MIT economist Antoine Lévy<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></a>
in Le Figaro of 2 January 2021, which received much attention in France. Lévy
had lamented the late start of the Covid vaccination in France. He cited the
disregard for logistics, evasion of responsibility, state and administrative
failures, and the government's loss of reality as key features of the French
backlog.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">A week later, an article<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
appeared in Le Monde (which has since been renamed), which puts the accent on<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">- France's hypertrophic <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bureaucracy i</i>n the health sector [2].
There, France has 93,000 administrative units (at the state, social security,
and municipal levels) that can spend public money; in Germany, there are
15,000.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">- <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Centralism</i>
with a vertical, silo-based organisation of ministries. The health minister
gives his instructions to the programme managers, who in turn delegate the
money to those responsible in the areas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">- <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Arrogance</i>:
On the ground, mayors and local authorities complain about the arrogance of
senior officials, by whom they are disregarded even in an emergency situation
where there should be unity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">- <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hyper
control</i>: The central government's distrust and obsession with detail have
paradoxically been reinforced by the various decentralisation laws. The state,
no longer an actor but a client, then compensated for its loss of power by
hyper-control.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">- <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Administrative
reform 2022</i>: What has the Comité action publique 2022 achieved?
"Nothing," says economist Jean Pisani-Ferry succinctly. "It was
a kind of Mexican army<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,"
confirms Philippe Aghion, professor at the Collège de France, who was also a
member of the reform commission. "We used bureaucracy to deal with the bureaucrats".<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">It is depressing and impressive how little
France seems to have changed in this respect in the last century. Let us take
as crown witnesses, in chronological order, writings by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Marc Bloch</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Herbert Lüthy</i><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">With their groundbreaking work, the
historians around the journal <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Annales </i>revolutionised
the study of history. Instead of listing battles and events, the Annales
historians wanted to show human activity in its entirety, and to this end
sought cooperation with other disciplines such as geography, sociology or
economics. The medievist and agricultural historian Marc Bloch was a co-founder
of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Annales</i> historiography (along
with Lucien Febvre); another famous representative was Fernand Braudel. Marc
Bloch came from a Jewish family originally resident in Alsace, which had left
Alsace after the Franco-Prussian War of 1870/1871. In 1944, he was captured in
Lyon and executed by a German firing squad.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">L'Étrange
Défaite</i> (1946) published posthumously<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
Marc Bloch (as a soldier in 1940) examines from a frog's perspective<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
the reasons for France's defeat in the battle for France during the Second
World War, the Drôle de Guerre (Phoney War). Bloch's contemporary history essay
is a testament to the shortcomings of the elites who entered the war in May
1940.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">First, Marc Bloch denounced the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bureaucratic character</i> of the army,
which he attributed to habits adopted in peacetime: in particular, the “cult du
beau papier” (superfluous written memos), but also the "fear of
displeasing a powerful man of today or tomorrow". According to Bloch, all this
bureaucratic organisation is also rooted in the training of officers
themselves, which revolves around a cult of theory and tradition. Officer
training was based on elegant and abstract theoretical rules of engagement that
did not stand the test of practice.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Second, a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">secrecy</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">command culture</i>
slowed down the dissemination of information. The combination of bureaucracy
and rigid training led to general disorder in the field as leaders changed too
often. Intelligence on enemy positions was prevented by meagre information at
the operational level, as relevant information was classified and circulated
only high up in the hierarchy. Information went through very long layers and
ended up being outdated by the time it reached the people who were supposed to
use it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Third, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">dilution
of responsibility</i> between too many levels of the hierarchy and a delay in
the transmission of instructions. This makes it impossible to estimate within
what time span an order can be carried out, leading to counterproductive
manoeuvres, such as the retreat of the armies on the Meuse and at Sedan before
the German breakthrough in the Belgian Ardennes. Senior officers were also
repeatedly surprised that "the Germans had simply moved faster than seemed
to be the rule", the rule being based on the study of the Napoleonic
campaigns and the First World War: the rigid and backward-looking strategic
thinking of the French leadership, according to Bloch.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Fourth, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">shirking
responsibility</i>: Marc Bloch's indictment of the French generals, who denied
any responsibility for the defeat of the French army in 1940, weighs
particularly heavily. Because, in his eyes, the generals were incapable of
adapting to the new realities of mobilised warfare of movement with tanks and
air power.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">A book by the Basel historian Herbert Lüthy<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
attracted attention in France<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
as well as in Germany and Switzerland shortly after Bloch's publication.
France's clocks go differently, not necessarily wrong! This speaks, as
Friedrich Sieburg<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn9" name="_ftnref9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> noted,
of "insight into the outrageous stability of the French being, which
resists even the most stormy calls to adapt itself to the demands of the hour
with a tenacity that arouses in the same breath the anger and admiration of
those around it." The French version of Lüthy's book "A l'heure de
son clocher: essai sur la France" thus echoes the cosy provinces of
France, as evoked by Charles Trenet in "Douce France" in the 1930s<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn10" name="_ftnref10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
rather than hectic Paris.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Lüthy notes how much France lags behind in
its mercantile economic concepts. For "France has not been governed but
administered for decades". What Herbert Lüthy wrote in 1954 could still
apply today: "Every new regime, and France has created more than a dozen
of them in the course of two centuries, has come to power with a revolutionary
programme of comprehensive state, administrative and judicial reforms; none has
been able to do more than change names and replace people". After all,
France was formed into the harmonious hexagon as we know it today under King
Philip II (1165-1223), also called Philip the Lazy. The ´lazy´ king built the
first beginnings of the administration in Paris and settled there with his
administrative substructure.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Administrative
dominance</span></i><span lang="EN-GB">: Lüthy describes the continuity of France
as the history of the development of its administration, France is the
continuity of administration. "It has survived unshaken all dynasties, all
revolutions and all catastrophes. Behind constantly changing facades of feudal,
absolute, liberal monarchy, empires and republics in continuous numbering, the
great institutions and corporations - and thus this state itself - have
remained the same" (Lüthy, op.cit., p.20).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Elite</span></i><span lang="EN-GB">: In reality, the administrative state is directed by the elite
civil service (´Grand Commis´), civil servants far superior to the politicians
in terms of seriousness and expertise. They shape the reason of state and
decide "almost always from the spirit of the past". The civil servant
elite is "a state of its own sovereignty, withdrawn from all political
intervention, responsible to no one but its own hierarchy; ...a completely
closed mandarinate that has acquired the esprit de corps and the consciousness
of a select elite ... from childhood onwards in the great boarding schools
preparing for careers" (Lüthy, p. 21).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Resistance to the 'technocrats' (eux!) from
Paris can sometimes come from ´France profonde´, the villages and provinces of
France. Shortly after television pictures showed President Macron being
celebrated, even adored, by OECD employees at the Château de la Muette, the
technocrat messiah was stopped by the protest of the yellow waistcoats from the
car-dependent province<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
"Messianism and parochialism" form a unity in France, according to
Lüthy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">But anyone who loves France, not just as a
pensioner or tourist, has to fear for it. This is truer today than 50 years
ago; with a common currency and a common economic area, Germany in particular
has tied its fate to its western neighbour. Moreover, Germany itself, and even
more so the EU, which is strongly French in its bureaucratic nature<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftn12" name="_ftnref12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
is marked by similar burdens as Bloch wrote down for France's "Strange
Defeat" in 1940.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Antoine Lévy (2021), "La lenteur de la vaccination française
est un symptôme de notre déclassement", Le Figaro, 1 January. My blog post
on this: <a href="http://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-frances-clocks-tick-differently.html">http://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-frances-clocks-tick-differently.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Claire Gatinois & Audrey Tonnelier (2021), "<a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2021/01/07/notre-droit-n-est-plus-en-mesure-de-sauver-des-vies-la-bureaucratie-francaise-coupable-ideale-des-rates-de-la-vaccination_6065429_823448.html">Vaccination:
la bureaucratie mise en accusation</a>", Le Monde, 7 January.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> The idiom stems from the Mexican Revolution. Meaning: ineffective
organisation with a hierarchical structure involving an excess of managers and
superiors.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> See also Alain Peyrefitte (1976), <i>Le Mal</i> </span><i><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">français</span></i><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">, Paris: Plon.</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Marc Bloch (1946), <i>L'Étrange Défaite</i>, Paris: Société
des Éditions “Franc-Tireur”.</span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Bloch did not want to register for the entrance examination at the
war college, which is why he did not advance beyond the rank of captain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> </span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Herbert Lüthy (1954), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Frankreichs
Uhren gehen anders</i>, Zurich: Europa Verlag. </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Idem</span></i><span lang="EN-GB"> (1955), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A l'heure de son clocher: essai sur la
France</i>, Paris: Calmann-Levy. The English versions of his book carry the
title <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">France against Herself: <span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A Perceptive Study
of France's Past, Her Politics and Her Unending Crises</span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">.</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> See for example Jacques Chapsal (1955), "Luthy
(Herbert)", <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Revue française de
science politique</i>, Vol. 5-4, pp. 898sq.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn9" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref9" name="_ftn9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> </span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Friedrich Sieburg (1954), "Im Brennpunkt des Gesprächs: France's
clocks go differently", <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Die Zeit</i>,
13th May.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn10" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref10" name="_ftn10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> The government of the united left French parties (Front Populaire)
that came to power at the time of the Third Republic in 1936 (Prime Minister
Léon Blum) made legal holidays (congés payés) universally binding.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn11" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref11" name="_ftn11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> One of the few journalists who, unlike those from the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">FT</i> or <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Economist</i>, seems to have intellectually penetrated Macron's
helplessness in France's difficult reform environment is Thomas Schmid (2018),
"<a href="https://schmid.welt.de/2018/12/12/die-gelbwesten-oder-warum-frankreichs-uhren-anders-gehen/">Die
Gelbwesten oder Warum Frankreichs Uhren anders gehen</a>",
https://schmid.welt.de/, 12 December.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn12" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20elite%20and%20province.docx#_ftnref12" name="_ftn12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> </span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Hans Magnus Enzensberger (2011), <i>Sanftes Monster Brüssel oder Die
Entmündigung Europas</i>, Suhrkamp.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></b><p></p>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-17334053754047593532021-01-06T12:22:00.003+01:002021-01-06T12:30:05.606+01:00Covid: France´s Clocks Tick Differently<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOe18VsKjMeV22L831APWI4cFtnhEwr5wj1d1bvLqrv3bVt4Uh0_UxQ8OfLtiAl91PK4F8plWxdwRrCkKNVJhnsmr-SSr54p6uGOt69wknPoFdVOK2qZfKKe775En9gut7cG-iEzeDzzI/s4032/IMG_5790.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOe18VsKjMeV22L831APWI4cFtnhEwr5wj1d1bvLqrv3bVt4Uh0_UxQ8OfLtiAl91PK4F8plWxdwRrCkKNVJhnsmr-SSr54p6uGOt69wknPoFdVOK2qZfKKe775En9gut7cG-iEzeDzzI/s320/IMG_5790.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">France's clocks tick differently. France, "that centre of
resistance to the mechanisation and mechanisation of life", without which
Europe would be</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a>
<span lang="EN-GB">"poor and inwardly ripe for any colonisation".<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">For decades, France has boasted that its expensive public health
system provides its 67 million inhabitants with the best possible care from
birth to death. Louis Pasteur, who invented the world's first vaccine in the
1880s, is revered throughout the country. In the Corona Year 2020, however, the
reputation of French health policy has been severely damaged; Chancellor Angela
Merkel even warned of "French conditions" in view of the many
triages, deaths and transfers of seriously ill patients to Germany. Despite
high public spending, there is a lack of intensive care beds. The management of
masks, tests, tracing and isolation is chaotic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">In the early days of 2021, France's inability to organise a credible
COVID-19 vaccination programme has confirmed the deep flaws in both the health
and political systems. These threaten to prolong the pandemic, cause thousands
of unnecessary deaths and ruin the economy. Within the EU, the same handicaps
apply - the slowness of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the EU's EU
vaccine procurement delay in ordering the most advanced vaccines from BioNTech
and Moderna<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
But the table points to the stark differences: Germany may have stumbled; France
is still hanging in there. Here, the binding bottleneck is not the lack of
vaccines: Of the 560,000 doses received in France by the end of the year, only
2000 had been injected by 4 January. France's clocks tick differently.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Covid
vaccinations in five major EU countries,<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Ranking as of 4 January
2021<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">EU country<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Vaccinations doses<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">%, population<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Germany<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">265.986<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">0,32<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Italy<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">128.880<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">0,21<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Spain<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">82.834<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">0,18<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Poland<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">50.391<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">0,13<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">France<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">2.000<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-width: 1pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">0,00<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Sources: Bloomberg; Covidtracker.fr<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-GB">The French MIT economist Antoine Lévy, a true <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">touche-à-tout </i>(jack-of-all-trades)</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> , has named the essential facets of the failure of the French
coronoa policy in a much-noted newspaper article in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Le Figaro<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></i>.
He identifies five major errors:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman"; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">The misjudged <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">primacy of logistics</i>, according to
Charles de Gaulle's motto "L'intendance suivra"</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> .<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman"; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Failure to act</span></i><span lang="EN-GB"> for fear of prosecution,
explained by<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>the trauma of the French
blood scandal. In the 1980s, HIV-contaminated blood products had been knowingly
administered until public stockpiles were emptied.<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman"; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">State investments </span></i><span lang="EN-GB">without cost-benefit
analysis resulting in wrong <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">priorities</i>.
Hundreds of billions of euros have been spent by the public sector since March
2020 - without earmarking enough money for logistical infrastructure necessary for
herd immunisation.<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman"; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">State and administrative failure</span></i><span lang="EN-GB"> with
wordy excuses, disinformation and war metaphors: first China was to blame, then
Brussels, then capitalism - an omnipresent culture of excuses. But according to
Lévy, the sluggish development of testing capacities, the mistrust in private
laboratory facilities as well as underpaid and inadequate staff in France's
public hospitals are the responsibility of French politics.<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman"; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Loss of reality of </span></i><span lang="EN-GB">a government
infatuated with pedagogy and communication ("logorrhoea"), neglecting
action in the face of a threatening crisis. "The morbid obsession with
polite language, which must never displease, to the detriment of sober
confrontation with the choice that reality imposes in all its difficulties"
(my translation), this is where the author locates the greatest failure.<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt;"><span lang="EN-GB">These complaints are
not new as far as France is concerned. The slowness of political
decision-making processes, the paralysing hierarchisation of an unequal society
and the disdain for operational implementation have been described and analysed
time and again. In addition to the book by the Basel historian Herbert Lüthy
cited at the beginning, the historian Marc Bloch (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">L'Étrange Défaite</i>)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
who was tortured and murdered by the Nazis, and the French statesman Alain
Peyrefitte (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Le Mal Français</i>) are
witnesses. What can we learn from their works? This is what the second episode
will be about. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> Herbert Lüthy (1954), Frankreichs Uhren gehen
anders, Zurich: Europa Verlag. </span><span lang="EN-GB">The quotations ibid.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> The Economist (2021), <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/01/05/europe-has-fallen-behind-on-covid-19-vaccination">Europe
has fallen behind on covid-19 vaccination</a>, 5<sup>th</sup> January.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://news.mit.edu/2020/economist-antoine-levy-0821"> </a>Sofia
Tong (2020), "<a href="https://news.mit.edu/2020/economist-antoine-levy-0821">Economist Antoine
Levy is all over the map</a>", <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">MIT
News</i>, 21. August.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Antoine Lévy (2021), "<a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/la-lenteur-de-la-vaccination-francaise-est-un-symptome-de-notre-declassement-20210101">The
slowness of French vaccination is a symptom of our downgrading</a>", <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Le Figaro, </i>1. Januar.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Loosely translated: The administration will follow.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/France%20clocks%20go%20differently.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> My thanks to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Jean Pisani-Ferry</i>
for the hint.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-53530027644781529072020-12-10T17:03:00.001+01:002020-12-10T20:15:17.433+01:00'Great Demographic Reversal' & Shifting Wealth<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgygD4lBZ06IAcb2N08gsDoqXK_KU4BIFih41qqa91QrjPKfIKTQTufudbBPCdDlEQBhFEcS3d4qEFRtPU6LbTME2xh0vdagWl2yh6zWkz0HMHX9GTuoECkfzdPdqynN23ODr__p67wdz0/s160/Goodhart+Pradhan.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="160" data-original-width="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgygD4lBZ06IAcb2N08gsDoqXK_KU4BIFih41qqa91QrjPKfIKTQTufudbBPCdDlEQBhFEcS3d4qEFRtPU6LbTME2xh0vdagWl2yh6zWkz0HMHX9GTuoECkfzdPdqynN23ODr__p67wdz0/s0/Goodhart+Pradhan.jpg" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">China's rise since the 1980s has brought an
era of low inflation and real interest rates; it also stimulated emerging
economies. This combination has resulted in high prices for equities, real
estate and commodities. The impact on personal income distribution has been
positive globally, but negative within most countries. In a highly acclaimed
book, Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan announce the end of the golden age</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB">. Changes in demography will reverse decades of trends: declining
growth in wages and inflation, falling interest rates, and greater inequality
between countries, while inequality is falling in many countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The main reason for this turning point is,
Goodhart and Pradhan claim, the end of the supply shock on global labour
markets, a product of mainly China´s demography <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">cum </i>globalisation. China's working age population is shrinking, its
old-age dependency ratio is rising. Globalisation is on the retreat (not least
as a result of the US policy of China's containment). As Martin Wolf aptly
points out, the prophecy of imminent inflation is less significant than the
book's analytical framework</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a>
<span lang="EN-GB">- at least beyond the financial markets.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Fig.
1: China's demography by age cohorts, 1950-2100<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ0BmMoUn9SqPw1Yur9LqM6akoP_Obbl_Twt2HI0uAoXkQqE5x_7HJHT1KprRoPwldSpum-C0IXhBb1QuldYyU5UIexzVAh0nhRCfel01rN1ObK3IjGoCGpR-sxF9Z3IWmPpH-wKhHjpk/s580/China+-Population+by+broad+age+groups.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ0BmMoUn9SqPw1Yur9LqM6akoP_Obbl_Twt2HI0uAoXkQqE5x_7HJHT1KprRoPwldSpum-C0IXhBb1QuldYyU5UIexzVAh0nhRCfel01rN1ObK3IjGoCGpR-sxF9Z3IWmPpH-wKhHjpk/s320/China+-Population+by+broad+age+groups.png" width="320" /></a></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></b><p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Their forecast is not that new. The far-reaching
and well written book by Goodhart and Pradhan is definitely to be recommended.
But neither are its theses "original" nor "surprising", as
the blurb suggests. In large parts, the thesis could have been written at the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">OECD Development Centre.</i> Indeed, they
were. Several publications and lectures since 2005 bear testimony to this; they
have been dubbed <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ShiftingWealth<span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px;"><b> [3]</b></span></span></i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i><span lang="EN-GB">by the OECD in
English; the German equivalent was christened <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Weltneuvermessung<span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px;"><b> [4]</b></span></span></i></span><span lang="EN-GB">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Our core argument since 2005 was that the
integration of China and India into the world economy effectively doubled the potential
labour force to be integrated into the world market economy. China brought in
750 million people of working age, India 450, and if we add the former
"Eastern Bloc", the additional labour force amounted to 1.5 billion</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB">. Real GDP growth clearly depends on the number of workers, either
through the skills they deploy or their ideas. A simple production function, in
which capital contributes one third of income (the rest is provided by low skilled
labour and know-how) translates the demographic shock into wage effects. Since
doubling the global labour supply halves the ratio of capital to labour, the
productivity of unskilled labour is reduced - by just over 16 per cent.
Equilibrium wages, which are clearing the labour market, fall by the same
percentage. Foreign trade theory and its central globalisation theorem (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Stolper-Samuelson</i>) predicted that lowering
the prices of wage-intensive goods would result in trimmed wages (for low
skilled work) and richer profits. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Meanwhile, China's labour reserve army
migrated from the hinterland, where employment is low-productive and mostly
seasonal, to the productive urban area. This migratory flow was supplemented by
those who had been laid off from unprofitable state enterprises. A dual labour
market model from the 1950s, which we owe to Nobel Prize winner <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Arthur Lewis</i>, illustrated the
consequences: as long as the surplus of unproductive labour in rural areas had
not melted away, pressure on real wages remained</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB">. This kept profits high in China's modern sector - an incentive to
reinvest there. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Fig.
2: Real wage index China 1979-2020</span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: center; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">-<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman"; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">Median of weekly wages for
full-time employees -<o:p></o:p></span></p><p align="center" class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: center; text-indent: -18pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvgHmBbGgJ2fvBhQnTTDa6IoV2SksEh9O41mS7YcOggiwfu0ClRWkgvJiyBJppJ7iC344y74pk8lTXbEmZcHIxR6kSxxv_uRIGvbRPCkuVB3Q625izWV4nlq2y73a6CqGObsNqTpY5tXY/s1168/China+real+wages.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="1168" height="154" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvgHmBbGgJ2fvBhQnTTDa6IoV2SksEh9O41mS7YcOggiwfu0ClRWkgvJiyBJppJ7iC344y74pk8lTXbEmZcHIxR6kSxxv_uRIGvbRPCkuVB3Q625izWV4nlq2y73a6CqGObsNqTpY5tXY/w400-h154/China+real+wages.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: DE; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Grafik_x0020_2" o:spid="_x0000_i1027" style="height: 175pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 454pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Meanwhile, rural labour supply has largely
been redirected to the modern sector; in China, scarcity prices for labour are
again being paid, and wages are rising. This is not only imminent, as Goodhart
& Pradhan postulate, but has been happening for several years now (Fig. 2).
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Fig.
3: Population trend in sub-Saharan Africa by age cohorts, 1950-2100<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0MsSSTJnyXjEFAfetclit6ZXpGjlm4yDXugQyfaFCIYp64zueKNOCIOpeHv09TDS8uPyTouvPmMihDO3EKowYfLEqrVIMYAzg0bKK98wBIYyaaBTxPaALRYzQwmgt3IJJ8oCt5ub556o/s580/SSA-Population+by+broad+age+groups.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0MsSSTJnyXjEFAfetclit6ZXpGjlm4yDXugQyfaFCIYp64zueKNOCIOpeHv09TDS8uPyTouvPmMihDO3EKowYfLEqrVIMYAzg0bKK98wBIYyaaBTxPaALRYzQwmgt3IJJ8oCt5ub556o/s320/SSA-Population+by+broad+age+groups.png" width="320" /></a></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: DE; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Grafik_x0020_3" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" style="height: 300pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 435pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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</v:imagedata></v:shape></span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">As for the future, it is not only China's
demography that will determine the global level of labour-intensive goods and
services, inflation and interest rates via subsistence wages of underemployed
people. Africa and South Asia are at the forefront here, but are largely ignored
by Goodhart and Pradhan. The United Nations predicts that Africa's working age
population (15-24; 25-64) will rapidly increase </span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><sup><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></span></sup></a><span lang="EN-GB">to over one billion people by 2050; by 2100 it will probably be two
billion (Fig.3). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In South Asia (including Bangladesh, India,
Pakistan, etc.), the cohorts of the working age population will rise to about
1.6 trillion people by 2050 - only after that is a moderate decline predicted
(Fig.4). If we add up the UN forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia,
the working-age population is expected to increase to more than 2.5 billion
people in 2050. While in China the working-age population (15-64) will shrink
by almost 200 million people between now and 2050, the working-age population
in Africa (500 million) and South Asia (400 million) will increase by a total
of almost one billion people.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">So, the demographic reversal may not have
started after all.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Certainly, it is unlikely that the two
'young' regions will integrate into the global economic division of
labour as successfully as China has done since 1980. But the massive increase
in the job-seeking population in Africa and South Asia will overshadow the
comparatively small decline in China's working age cohort by 2050. Despite the
book's title, demography is a weak aspect of Goodhart and Pradhan's book.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Fig.
4: Population trend South Asia by age cohorts, 1950-2100<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: DE; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Grafik_x0020_4" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" style="height: 300pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 435pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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</v:imagedata></v:shape></span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHsLq2Xts2mmgtzSbLiCFKgQ36N3Ek0KV7LGpNiM9-z5sQTVURZn1O1Fpx5z6Sj95Y1BGNJca29Y7A7ZhpL8qG5QLLRd-iP4T4PHDOMsLSnSwz4eWnshoYtAGSEq7T37JZqYOlvustS5E/s580/South+Asia-Population+by+broad+age+groups.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHsLq2Xts2mmgtzSbLiCFKgQ36N3Ek0KV7LGpNiM9-z5sQTVURZn1O1Fpx5z6Sj95Y1BGNJca29Y7A7ZhpL8qG5QLLRd-iP4T4PHDOMsLSnSwz4eWnshoYtAGSEq7T37JZqYOlvustS5E/s320/South+Asia-Population+by+broad+age+groups.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Goodhart and Pradhan expect real interest
rates to rise as a result of the demographic changes underway in the
industrialised countries and in China. Their macro and financial orientation
leads them astray when they explain the long fall in global real interest rates
with China's hitherto high propensity to save, the reinvestment of China's
supplier credits in US government bonds and the ageing of the population in
developed countries. Some of the arguments are reminiscent of the empirically
rejected <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bernanke </i>thesis that
international current account imbalances can be explained</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> by the Asian glut of savings.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In explaining high savings in the Asian
region, on the other hand,</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn9" name="_ftnref9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a>
<span lang="EN-GB">an observation developed by Amartya Sen (1990) has received
strong empirical support: the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">son
preference </i>(measured as the son-girl ratio, the result of abortion of
female fetuses). For a sample of 22 countries, the OECD found</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn10" name="_ftnref10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> a strong finding: savings rates rose from 21% with a low level to
51% with a strong son preference. For China, where the sexes were and remain
particularly unequally distributed due to the one-child policy (son/girl 1.2), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Shang-Jin Wei</i></span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB">demonstrated a close empirical connection between savings rate and
son preference in spatial and temporal dimensions. How will this gender effect,
ignored by Goodhart and Pradhan, affect the propensity to save and interest
rates in the future? So far, there is little evidence of the abandonment of
gender-selective abortion in China or India.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Another structural explanation for
persistently high savings rates</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn12" name="_ftnref12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a>
<span lang="EN-GB">is the high level of corporate savings in manufacturing due to
undervalued exchange rates. In the context of underdeveloped financial markets,
the internal financing of Asian companies is dominated by the retention of
profits or the creation of provisions. However, massive sustained appreciation
of the weighted external value of the currency can translate into lower
corporate savings, especially in emerging markets</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftn13" name="_ftnref13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Conclusion: Will Goodhart and Prahan's
thesis be confirmed that changes in global demography will reverse decades-long
trends in interest rates, wages and inflation? Much will depend on how
successfully the young but poor subcontinents of South Asia and Africa can
integrate into the global economy. It cannot be ruled out that the effectively
effective global labour supply will continue to cap wages and prices for
labour-intensive goods and services. High savings rates, and thus low interest
rates, will continue to accompany us even if mass abortions of female fetuses
are carried out in Asia and companies there remain self-financed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></i><span lang="EN-GB">Charles Goodhart & Monoj Pradhan (2020), The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing
Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, </i>London: Pelgrave
Macmillan, August. The book has several predecessors that can be traced back to
2015 (with Pratyancha Pardeshi). Cf. with http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/66775/.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/dea66630-d054-401a-ad1c-65ebd0d10b38"> </a>Martin
Wolf (2020), <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/dea66630-d054-401a-ad1c-65ebd0d10b38">Why
inflation could be on the way back</a>, Financial Times, 17. November.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Martin Grandes, Nicolas Pinaud & Helmut Reisen (2005), "<a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/oecdevaaa/241-en.htm">Macroeconomic
Policies: New Issues of Interdependence</a>", <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">OECD Development Centre Working Papers </i>No. 241, Januar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Helmut Reisen (2005), <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dev/36278574.ppt" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">China's and India's Implications for the
World Economy</i></a>, Basel University Lectures Series, erwähnt in Martin Wolf
(2006), <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6a5a0f68-b389-11da-89c7-0000779e2340">Answer
to Asia's rise is not to retreat</a>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Financial
Times</i>, 14<sup>.</sup> März. Der term ShiftingWealth was established by OECD
(2010), <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dev/pgd/45451514.pdf"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Perspectives on Global Development 2010: Shifting Wealth</i></a>,
Paris: OECD.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.oecd.org/development/pgd/42680268.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> </span></a></span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Helmut Reisen (2008), "</span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.oecd.org/development/pgd/42680268.pdf" target="_blank"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Die Neuvermessung
des Welt</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">"</span></span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Internationale Politik</i>, July/August 2008.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.oecd.org/dev/35973761.pdf" target="_blank"> </a>See
for example Helmut Reisen (2006), "<a href="http://www.oecd.org/dev/35973761.pdf" target="_blank">Globalisation,
Proletariat and Precariat"</a>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Internationale
Politik</i>, 1/2006.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> In order to eradicate rural poverty, China is now again pushing
migration from rural areas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> In highly developed countries, the 25-64 age cohort represents the
working age population. In poor countries, this restriction would be
inadmissible because of the shorter period of education and the importance of
the informal sector. The 15-24 age cohort is therefore also relevant for labour
supply.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261560607000320">
</a>Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito (2007), "<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261560607000320">Current
account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world
"saving glut</a>"", <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Journal
of International Money and Finance</i>, Volume 26, Issue 4, June 2007, S. 546-569.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn9" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref9" name="_ftn9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Amartya Sen (1990), "More than 100 million women are missing",
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The New York Review of Books</i>, Vol. 37(20),
S. 61-66.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn10" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref10" name="_ftn10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: blue; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: DE;"> </span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">OECD (2010), </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: blue; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: DE;">Perspectives on Global Development
2010: Shifting Wealth</span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: blue; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: DE;">, Paris: OECD.</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn11" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref11" name="_ftn11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://voxeu.org/article/mystery-chinese-savings"> </a>Shang-Jin
Wei (2010), "<a href="https://voxeu.org/article/mystery-chinese-savings">The
mystery of Chinese savings</a>", <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Voxeu.org</i>,
6. Februar.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn12" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref12" name="_ftn12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick (2007), "'<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2007.00210.x">Chimerica'
and the Global Asset Market Boom", </a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">International
Finance, </i>Vol. 10.3, S. 215-239.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn13" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Besprechung%20Goodhart%20Pradhan%20en%20(1).docx#_ftnref13" name="_ftn13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Marcus Kappler, Helmut Reisen, Moritz Schularick & Edouard
Turkisch (2012), "The <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11079-012-9246-4">Macroeconomic
Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations", </a>Open <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Economies Review, </i>vol. 24, S. 471-494.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-22574905078336229312020-11-28T19:35:00.001+01:002020-11-28T21:26:40.659+01:00Political Numbers<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJHlxyYT8AFpksjLyX2yUysCPnlGeLN8qFSh81kgW003Doc12k0qXEV_km4mZKgOd6iTaNWGBkMfcn2yC_54GqnIQ2-kwSDnVEsviHJdaw3MjELEvacfi0kQ0l8LSW-Hl5FXGA_SVEfc8/s4032/IMG_5946.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJHlxyYT8AFpksjLyX2yUysCPnlGeLN8qFSh81kgW003Doc12k0qXEV_km4mZKgOd6iTaNWGBkMfcn2yC_54GqnIQ2-kwSDnVEsviHJdaw3MjELEvacfi0kQ0l8LSW-Hl5FXGA_SVEfc8/s320/IMG_5946.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">A lucid book<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
by the epistemologist <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Oliver Schlaudt</i>
(Heidelberg U) shows how fact-focused policy advice can undermine democratic
decision-making. Performance indicators and rankings are "political
numbers", they supposedly stand for rational decision-making. However,
prior political judgements and dubious assumptions usually determine the
mechanism by which a society that believes in numbers constantly nurtures the
illusion that politics is basically superfluous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">This is particularly evident in the case of
international organisations such as the IMF, OECD or World Bank, which are
particularly far removed from political control mechanisms, or in the case of
think tanks financed in a non-transparent manner. Such institutions are all too
happy to ride their political agenda. From the perspective of principal-agent
theory, two specific problems make it difficult to control international
organisations: the long chain of delegations from voters to heads of
government, and the common-agency problem<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Andreas
Schleicher</span></i><span lang="EN-GB">, OECD Director for Education and Skills
and well-known as founder and coordinator of the Programme for International
Student Assessment (PISA) studies, once coined the phrase: "Without data,
you are just another person with an opinion". Many found this slogan
smart. Me too. On closer inspection, however, it is not just arrogant. The
motto is misleading, even dangerous. For it nurtures the illusion that
essential political issues (not only education policy) are determined by 'facts'.
So policy advisors like to adorn their recommendations with the word
"evidence-based". Parliaments, the press and politicians should
better bow to the rule of experts as a result.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">No doubt, a policy that believes it can do
without scientific advice is 'blind' policy (as often embodied by the 45th
President of the USA). Politics has a liability to consult research. It is
therefore preferable that politics defines targets and goals first, then seeks
(hopefully not only) scientific advice on the adequate means. The other
extreme, however, in the field of economic policy can be labeled econocracy<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Schlaudt lists three dangers of purely science-based policy, of which I would
like to give the following concrete examples:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman"; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Interference and encroachment</span></i><span lang="EN-GB">: Economists
act as disguised lobbyists - politicians without a mandate. In Germany, these
include Bernd Raffelhüschen (U Freiburg) or Bert Rürup (Handelsblatt),
advocating the funded pension system. Although funded schemes are not superior
to the pay-as-you-go system<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
they represent a lucrative business for financial intermediairies. The
combination of academia and lobbying (often with the help of think tanks) for
the benefit of private sponsors and at the expense of the statutory pension was
exposed wonderfully in the 2014 satirical ZDF show 'Die Anstalt'<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman"; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Futility thesis</span></i><span lang="EN-GB">: According to Schlaudt, there is a danger that the dynamics of the feasible will
overrun the discourse on what is desirable. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Albert
O. Hirschman</i> called this the futility thesis, one of the three basic
figures of reactionary thought (along with the perversity thesis and the
jeopardy thesis)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Hirschman's futility thesis holds that attempts at social transformation will
be unavailing, that they will simply fail to "make a dent.". As an
example Hirschman quotes <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Vilfredo Pareto</i>
who, referring to uniform international evidence on personal income
distribution, argued that redistribution policies were ineffective.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman"; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Political negation</span></i><span lang="EN-GB">: The most aggressive
encroachment of econocracy denies political decisions the right to weigh in. In
order to counter the alleged inflationary bias of politicians – notably in
coalition governments, in federal states or in politically highly polarised
countries - economists have advocated central bank independence<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Monetary policy has been removed from politicians´ authority in those countries
that have granted their central bank independence by statute, law or even
constitution. Budget policy should also submit to the rule of experts, if it
were up to the conceptions of some economists<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
although budget decisions are prime political responsibility.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In terms of personnel policy, the
appointment of Janet Yellen, the former head of the Federal Reserve, as
Secretary of the Treasury has just done so in the USA. Accordingly, the
enthusiasm of the leading (Keynesian) 'experts' was unanimous. A contrary path
was taken with the election of Christine Lagarde, the former French Finance
Minister, as President of the European Central Bank. Perhaps unsurprisingly,
she remains more a politician (who is occasionally accused of overstretching the
ECB's mandate in terms of gender and environmental policy) than a central banker.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">At the beginning of the 20th century,
sociologist and economist <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Max Weber</i>
examined in detail the role of experts in the process of political decision-making.
In the value judgement dispute (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Werturteilsstreit</i>)
with the historical school of economics (Kathedersozialisten Schmoller, Wagner,
or Knapp) he argued together with <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Werner
Sombart</i> that it was never the task of empirical science to determine binding
norms and ideals in order to be able to derive prescriptions for practice.
Weber saw the danger of experts taking advantage of their privileged position
and media presence to take a political stand. According to Weber, politics is
about what is desirable, science about what is feasible. Only a few academics
in the social sciences limit themselves to positive analysis, though, but are
too eager to push their way into politics and the media with normative
proposals.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> Oliver Schlaudt (2018), </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://download.klostermann.de/leseprobe/9783465043393_leseprobe.pdf"><i><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Die politischen Zahlen: Über
Quantifizierung im Neoliberalismus</span></i></a></span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">, Frankfurt/Main: Klostermann Rote Reihe 102.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Nielson, D.L. and M. J. Tierney (2003), “<a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/article/cupintorg/v_3a57_3ay_3a2003_3ai_3a02_3ap_3a241-276_5f57.htm">Delegation
to International Organizations: Agency Theory and World Bank Environmental
Reform</a>”, <i>International Organization</i>, Vol. 57(2), pp. 241–276.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> The term belongs to the vocabulary of pluralistic economics, which
opposes in particular the dominance of neoclassical explanatory approaches. See
Joe Earle, Cahal Moran and Zach Ward-Perkins (2016), <a href="https://manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526110138/"><i>The
econocracy: The perils of leaving economics to the experts</i></a>, Manchester
University Press. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Robert Holzmann and Joseph E. Stiglitz (2001), <a href="https://doi.org/10.1596/0-8213-4822-1"><i>New Ideas about Old Age
Security: Toward Sustainable Pension Systems in the 21st Century</i></a><i>, </i>World
Bank, Washington DC, January.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfxiEgtOnRk"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Private Vorsorge einfach erklärt</span></a></span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> (private pensions for dummys) | Die Anstalt,
ZDF, 11. March 2014.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Albert O. Hirschman (1991), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Rhetoric of Reaction: Perversity, Futility, Jeopardy</i>, Harvard University
Press, Cambridge MA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Jakob de Haan and Sylvester Eijffinger (2016), „<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2888836">The Politics
of Central Bank Independence</a>”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">De
Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper</i> No. 539<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Political%20Numbers.docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> See, for instance, Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann & Jürgen
von Hagen (1999), „<a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/article/kapopenec/v_3a10_3ay_3a1999_3ai_3a4_3ap_3a415-442.htm">Reforming
Budgetary Institutions in Latin America: The Case for a National Fiscal Council</a>“,
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Open Economies Review</i> Vol. 10, S. 415–442.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-74948691738699579052020-11-08T17:14:00.002+01:002020-11-08T17:14:16.651+01:00 Dismal Multilateral Development Finance<p> <b> The Dismal State of Multilateral Development Finance</b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In view of the tremendous funding needs for
fighting global public bads - pandemics such as now the coronavirus, climate
change, hunger, analphabetism or terrorism – multilateral development finance
has since long been in bad shape. The multilateral development-finance system
has become overly complex. One would like to think that the system is an
orderly process guided by simple principles, but it is rather a non-system<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>.
This non-system does not result from coherent design but is a child of
spontaneous disorder. A rising treat is the rise of ´multilateralism à la
carte` as large donors starve core budgets of UN agencies<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Since the early 2000s, new actors, both
public and private, have emerged as important sources of finance, in addition
to MDBs, UN agencies and the bi-multilateral donor EU. The rise of emerging
powers as new lenders (notably China), the creation of so-called vertical funds<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
to finance global health and other global commons, the growing role of
non-governmental organisations and the increased presence of private
philantropy are stressing the developing-country recipients. They complain
about the administrative burdens imposed on them by donor missions, evaluation
bureaucracies, policy dialogues and other strings attached to aid money. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The OECD has reviewed multilateral
development finance since 2008; those reports have failed to capture the wide
attention they deserve. <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dac/multilateral-development-finance-2020-e61fdf00-en.htm">Multilateral
Development Finance 2020</a>, a very infomative 140-pages report, has been
published recently<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>.
It provides a rich portrait of a system under stress. Its focus of attention
are ODA-eligible international organisations, mostly UN agencies, multilateral
development banks and “Vertical funds” - development financing mechanisms
confined to single development domains (such as health) with mixed private and public
funding sources.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In 2018, total funding to multilateral
organisations covered by the OECD report reached a new all-time high, at USD
71.9 billion<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>.
However, multilateral funding is now primarily driven by a rise in earmarked
contributions – by some large countries cherrypicking the system. You could
argue that this reflects bilateral funding disguised as multilateral. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">In particular UN agencies (such as WFP,
UNHCR or even UNCTAD) suffer from rising funding vulnerabilities, mostly a
result of a drop in the share of core contributions to their budget. A high
donor concentration (such as for IOM) can create such funding vulnerability as
well. Figure 1 presents the 2016-18 data for UN agencies, MDBs and Vertical
Funds<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-GB">Figure 1: <b>Earmarking, Donor Concentration and Funding Vulnerability, 2016-18<o:p></o:p></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6i32XeHXI2VJRLUoAL1pet-eKUAOypmrV-H2XSKGMXau8Xa_2P3akOSc4cLRbsuJo7thV_XDqNAIrUah7gclxBweauhOypbI11OvVdKc4yK8w4mxu4DGnI80SP9qBanG_q6n1B1TZIsI/s1039/UN+bodies+funding+vulnerability.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="507" data-original-width="1039" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6i32XeHXI2VJRLUoAL1pet-eKUAOypmrV-H2XSKGMXau8Xa_2P3akOSc4cLRbsuJo7thV_XDqNAIrUah7gclxBweauhOypbI11OvVdKc4yK8w4mxu4DGnI80SP9qBanG_q6n1B1TZIsI/w400-h195/UN+bodies+funding+vulnerability.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-GB">Source:
OECD, <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dac/multilateral-development-finance-2020-e61fdf00-en.htm">Multilateral
Development Finance 2020</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Who is
responsible (among large DAC donors) for the dismal state of multilateral
finance for ODA-eligible international organisations? Table 1 provides elements
for an answer. Two large donors need to be singled out: Germany and the United
States. The majority of their contributions to ODA-eligible multilaterals was increasingly
earmarked for programmatic or project-type purposes rather than allocated to
core budgets.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">The <i>United States</i> has turned into an agressive cherrypicker of the
multilateral system, rather unsurprisingly for the past Trump administration,
but also before under Obama. During the period 2012 to 2018, the share of core
multilateral contributions in ODA provided by the US fell from 18% to 11%. It
will be worth watching whether President-elect Joe Biden is going to revert
that trend.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">Germany is now among the worst
offenders, contrary to the country´s self image as the quintessential
multilateralist. The share of core multilateral contributions in Germany´s ODA
has dropped continuously over the 2010s, from 35% to round 20% of its ODA in
2017. Some may object that Germany is the biggest contributor to the EU, hence
more multilateral than visible from country sources. But as shown in Table 1,
the EU institutions don´t behave differently and contribute apparently little
to the core budgets of ODA-eligible multilateral agencies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">By contrast, <i>France</i> and the <i>United Kingdom </i>have maintained their core budget funding as a share
of ODA over the 2010s, France just below and the UK at around 40%. Italy, Spain
and Portugal support multilateral core funding most, in relation to their ODA
contributions (around 2/3).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-GB">Table 1: <b>Top DAC Donors to ODA-Eligible Multilaterals, 2010s<o:p></o:p></b></span></p><div align="center">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Country<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Total USD bn, 2018<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><br /></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Trend from 2016 <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">% to Core 2018<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Trend 2010s<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">United Kingdom<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">11.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↗</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">36.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">→</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">United States<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">10.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">→</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">11.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Germany<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">10.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↗</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">22.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">France<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">6.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↗</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">38.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↗</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Japan<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">5.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↗</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">23.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">→</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Italy<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">3.5<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↗</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">56.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↗</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Canada<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">3.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">24.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB">Memo: EU<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">4.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">↘<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">1.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span lang="EN-GB">→<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-GB">Source: OECD, <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=crs1.">Creditor Reporting
System</a> (database); own calculations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Earmarking is not bad per se. The rise of
earmarking may be attributable to the spike in humanitarian interventions of
the past decade, for example. Those interventions account for a large share of
the funding earmarked by DAC members through the multilateral development
system. But there are significant cost of ´multilateralism à la carte´, i.e.
multi-bi funding (earmarked bilateral aid routed via multilateral channels)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><i><span lang="EN-GB">Multilateralism à la carte</span></i><span lang="EN-GB"> undermines
universality, which affords every country a voice regardless its size. Earmarking
may well imply less funding for so-called global public goods as it distorts
the balance between supply and demand. This has been seen to slow responses to
pandemics by UN agencies. Healing pandemics, such as the current coronavirus
crisis or the former Ebola crisis in West Africa, or ending hunger in refugee
camps (and elsewhere), are good examples of the need for a universal approach.
Multilateral work programmes risk to become less needs driven and country
choices distorted with rising donor domination. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">The “tragedy of commons”<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
is reinforced by earmarking via institutional hollowing out. This hollowing out
works in two related ways. First, staff and management attention and capacity
are increasingly pulled away from original core activities approved by the
broader membership. Second, power and accountability gradually shift away from
the broader collective as multilateral institutions increasingly become viewed
as a mere instrument to implement the spending choices of relatively few large
donors, leaving smaller countries as passive bystanders.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">Long debates on the reform of
the Bretton Woods institutions have failed to restore representativeness to the
system; the G7 countries still dominate decision making. The challenge to find
ways to have small countries participate in global governance has not been
resoved by the creation of the G20 bureaucracies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The election of US President-elect Joe
Biden gives some reason to hope for a return of the United States to some less
conditional multilateralism. Germany, traditionally a close ally of the US,
should step up contributions to core budgets of ODA-eligible agencies
simultaneously. The United Nations need to be strengthened after a lost decade.
A handle to speed up core contributions to the UN might be to link them to the
widely demanded rise of budget contributuions to NATO. Alas, while NATO has a
strong lobby with the arms industry, especially the American, the United
Nations have not.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><div><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Helmut Reisen (2010), „The Multilateral Donor Non-System: Towards
Accountability and Efficient Role Assignment”, <a href="http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2010-5">http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2010-5</a>,
February.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Stephen Browne and Roberto Cordon (2015), “<a href="https://www.futureun.org/media/archive1/briefings/FUNDS_Brief25_Jan2015_WHO_GAVI_GF.pdf">Vertical
Funds: Lessons for Multilateralism and The UN</a>”, Future United Nations
Development System, CUNY Graduate Center, Briefing 25, January.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> OECD (2020), Multilateral Development Finance 2020, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/e61fdf00-en">https://doi.org/10.1787/e61fdf00-en</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Ignore for a moment that the DAC has recently changed ODA reporting
rules to include transactions that require no financial sacrifice. This
deprives ODA of its meaning as a gauge of aid effort, and vitiates the point of
setting the U.N. ODA target. The changes have also rendered ODA incoherent as a
statistical measure, making it a faulty tool for monitoring and analysis. ODA
now fails to meet basic statistical quality standards. See Simon Scott (2018),
“<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/09/26/a-note-on-current-problems-with-oda-as-a-statistical-measure/">A
note on current problems with ODA as a statistical measure</a>”, Brookings,
September.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> The list of ODA-eligible international organisations currently
contains some 360 entries. It can be downloeaded as Excel file here <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dac/stats/annex2.htm">https://www.oecd.org/dac/stats/annex2.htm</a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Owen Barder, Euan Ritchie, and Andrew Rogerson (2019), “Contractors
or Collectives?” Earmarked Funding of<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span lang="EN-GB">Multilaterals, Donor Needs, and
Institutional Integrity: The World Bank as a Case Study, <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/contractors-or-collectives-earmarked-funding-multilaterals-donor-needs-and_0.pdf">CGD
Policy Paper 153</a>, Center for Global Development, July.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20Dismal%20State%20of%20Multilateral%20Development%20Finance.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Hardin, Garrett (1968). "The Tragedy of the Commons", <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243"><i>Science</i>, Vol. 162 (3859)</a>, pp. 1243–1248. The “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons#CITEREFHardin1968">tragedy
of the commons</a>” denotes a situation in a shared-resource system where
individual users, acting independently according to their own self-interest,
behave contrary to the common good of all users by depleting or spoiling the
shared resource through their collective action. The original concept referred
to the effects of unregulated grazing on common land (also known as a
"common") in Great Britain and Ireland.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div><div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-1486870872511339902020-09-06T18:29:00.002+02:002020-09-07T17:05:09.149+02:00The World Bank Suspends her ´Doing Business´ Index<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="">The
World Bank Suspends her ´<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Doing Business</i>´
Index<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">It was about time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">The World Bank has now suspended the
publication of its global business climate index after identifying
“irregularities” in its data that may have affected the ranking of emerging countries.
I have criticised the use (and misuse) of governance indicators since long, not
only for lack of data integrity and not just the ´Ease of Doing Business´ (EoDB)
index. Most recently, joint with Robert Kappel, in our FES study on
the ´G20 Compact with Africa´<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">EoDB Indicators have been provided from
2003 onwards on a yearly basis by the <i>International Finance Corporation</i>,
the private-finance arm of the World Bank Group (IFC). The EoDB puts up a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">global beauty contest for investors</i>: processes
for business incorporation, ease of getting a building permit, obtaining an
electricity connection, transferring property, getting access to credit,
protecting minority investors, paying taxes, engaging in international trade,
enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency. Labour market deregulation (e.g. the
ease to fire workers) had already been discontinued from EoDB rankings, in the
wake of early protests by the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions
(ICFTU).<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">The EoDB index has been subject to heavy
criticism since a while, notably at the OECD Development Centre<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Early 2018, the World Bank’s chief economist at the time, Paul Romer, told the
Wall Street Journal he had lost faith in the integrity of the Doing Business
index, suggesting it was being politically manipulated—particularly to
embarrass <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Chile</i>’s socialist president
Michelle Bachelet. He then announced his resignation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="">Two
EoDB Heroes<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKJnaOX9EcDtvwq-hg6GrGClk2cahzI9uFFGT-FaIbOC0pNLkUCHRUcnEyPibsOuGna4slDwYwhEn53LM-bodV5Vvu7NCSS9_YcupnAVBHoev1kutVqyd17sxAogDSKnuqL6m6dpkfQGc/s1192/MBS+w+Modi.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKJnaOX9EcDtvwq-hg6GrGClk2cahzI9uFFGT-FaIbOC0pNLkUCHRUcnEyPibsOuGna4slDwYwhEn53LM-bodV5Vvu7NCSS9_YcupnAVBHoev1kutVqyd17sxAogDSKnuqL6m6dpkfQGc/s320/MBS+w+Modi.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Chile was not a single ´accident´. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">India</i>’s rise in the Doing Business
rankings celebrated by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (“the largest
democracy on earth is also the fastest growing major economy”) turned out to be
mostly an artefact of methodological changes (as did India´s faked numbers of
growth). CGD author Justin Sandefur has urged that the World Bank “Should
Ditch the "Doing Business" Rankings”<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
And, on the heels of a massive arms deal with the US<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Saudi Arabia</i> sharply improved her
rankings in the 2019 Doing Business report. (Mind you, the 2020 G20 Riyadh summit
is still scheduled for November. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Honi
soit qui mal y pense</i>.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Governance indicators fail for a variety of
reasons that I have exposed here<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
and there<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Especially harmful is global investors´ beauty contest contest indicator (EoDB),
as eloquently summarised by former UNECA head Carlos Lopez: “The global
investor focus on the index had encouraged countries to prioritise creating
low-tax, low-regulation environments, sometimes at the expense of macroeconomic
considerations. It makes countries compete into some sort of race to the bottom
against the expectation that they will be rewarded with more FDI when in fact
what matters most for investors is stability, predictability and regulatory
clarity”<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Robert Kappel & Helmut Reisen (2019), <a href="https://www.fes.de/referat-afrika/neugikeiten-referat-afrika/studie-g20-compact-with-africa">"G20
Compact with Africa: The Audacity of Hope"</a>, Berlin: Friedrich Ebert
Stiftung. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Cf. Peter Bakvis (2006), <a href="https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/gurn/00171.pdf">How the World Bank &
Imf Use the Doing Business Report to Promote Labour Market Deregulation in
Developing Countries</a>, Berlin: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Christiane Arndt and Charles P. Oman (2006), <i><a href="https://www.oecd.org/dev/usesandabusesofgovernanceindicators.htm">Uses
and Abuses of Governance Indicators</a></i>, Paris: OECD Development Centre
Policy Studies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Justin Sandefur & Divyanshi Wadhwa (2018), „<a href="https://www.cgdev.org/blog/chart-week-3-why-world-bank-should-ditch-doing-business-rankings-one-embarrassing-chart">Chart
of the Week #3: Why the World Bank Should Ditch the ´Doing Business´
Rankings—in One Embarrassing Chart</a>”, Washington, DC: Center for Global
Development (CDG).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Javier E. David (2017), “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/20/us-saudi-arabia-seal-weapons-deal-worth-nearly-110-billion-as-trump-begins-visit.html">US-Saudi
Arabia seal weapons deal worth nearly $110 billion immediately, $350 billion
over 10 years</a>”, CNBC.com, 22. May.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Helmut Reisen & Dilan Ölcer (2009), “<a href="https://voxeu.org/article/extracting-more-extractive-industries-transparency-initiative">Extracting
more from EITI</a>”, voxeu.org, 17. February.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Helmut Reisen (2019), “<a href="http://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-abuse-of-governance-indicators.html">The
Abuse of Governance Indicators</a>”, ShiftingWealth Blog, 25. June.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/EoDB%20index%20suspended.docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="" lang="" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Tom Wilson (2020), “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4991f839-6577-4f76-b729-807377e372d4">World
Bank suspends its business climate index over data ‘irregularities’</a>”,
Financial Times, 28. August.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-82739343935117857422020-08-25T10:45:00.003+02:002020-08-25T10:45:50.405+02:00Is Europe's freedom to be defended in the Sahel?<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">"Germany's freedom is being defended
in the Hindu Kush." Former German Defence Minister Peter Struck said so in
2014. Then, Struck had in mind the prevention of the Taliban regime and the
civil war in Afghanistan. Where totalitarian Islamic fundamentalists take
control of an entire country, people try to flee from oppression and
manslaughter. As grotesque as Struck's dictum may have sounded at the time, it
still finds defenders today with reference to the migration crisis at Europe´s external
borders.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">However, the NATO mission in Afghanistan is
now widely considered a "fiasco", even if no counterfactual
comparison can be made<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was a NATO-led military
mission in Afghanistan, established by the United Nations Security Council in
December 2001. After almost 20 years of war, NATO had to accept that it was not
possible to implement a Western political system there militarily. ISAF ceased
combat operations and was disbanded in December 2014. After the US-Taliban deal
of February 2020, United States and its Nato allies have agreed to withdraw all
troops within 14 months if the militants uphold the deal<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The war in Afghanistan also highlights the
fact that no longer interstate wars prevail but armed conflicts with and among
non-state actors. These are no longer manageable with military armament. A
similar insight increasingly applies to Iraq. Contrary to the hopes of
Bellicists and Neocons (Bannon, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz), Western democracy cannot
be enforced by military means.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Organisational beginnings of the so-called
Islamic State go back to the Iraqi resistance shortly after the invasion by the
Coalition of the Willing. In 2004 the group was known as al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI)
and from 2011 to June 2014 as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS, later
IS), or under the transcribed Arabic acronym Daesh<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, although a close ally of George W.
Bush, sees the US-led invasion of Iraq as partly responsible for the creation
of the terrorist militia Islamic State. He now admits "<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-34630565">elements of truth</a>"
in the assertion that the Iraq war caused the rise of the IS.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">After the destruction of the Caliphate and
the occupation of the remaining territories of the IS in Syria in 2017, the
Islamic state also shifted to the Sahel, partly in the form of the terrorist
organisation of Nigerian origin Boko Haram, but similar in methods: assault,
murder, robbery, enslavement and rape.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">So the wildfire of terrorism has long since
reached the Sahel. Boko Haram, an Islamist terrorist group in northern Nigeria,
is also active in the neighbouring countries of Chad, Niger and Cameroon.
Recently, it was the deadly attack on a convoy of French aid workers in Niger
and the coup in Mali that put the Sahel back on the front pages. As was
previously the case for the 'Hindu Kush', appropriate stabilisation strategies
for the Sahel are now again being discussed, as was the case last week at the
meeting between the German chancellor and the French president in his summer
residence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The Sahel renews the question of what use
of military means is appropriate. Bamako, the capital of Mali, is the base for
two multinational military missions, MINUSMA and EUTM.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MINUSMA (Mission multidimensionnelle intégrée
des Nations Unies pour la stabilisation au Mali), the United Nations
peacekeeping mission, was established by UN resolution in April 2013. This UN
mission, the deadliest to date, originally comprised 11,000 (currently more
than 13,000) soldiers and police officers. Since 2013, the European Union
Training Mission in Mali (EUTM) has been tasked with "restoring lasting
peace and stability in Mali", which is "essential for long-term
stability in the Sahel and wider Africa and Europe"<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
The EU mission oversees the training of 14,000 Malian soldiers.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKXQjSIeywnZRD4JMoNah3aeFXv5uxaRcB5DcmE72s-kTmZxVrMI6IJZy3ERhyphenhyphen3sx-5AmXI2GyoF8FTvsPRQkSH8HFdGGMIrM1DTmtMfNaBidIwoKvNpoTdWdCWITR-yMnOqoPjaay93A/s1080/qa-namata-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1080" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKXQjSIeywnZRD4JMoNah3aeFXv5uxaRcB5DcmE72s-kTmZxVrMI6IJZy3ERhyphenhyphen3sx-5AmXI2GyoF8FTvsPRQkSH8HFdGGMIrM1DTmtMfNaBidIwoKvNpoTdWdCWITR-yMnOqoPjaay93A/w410-h293/qa-namata-1.jpg" width="410" /></a></div><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The 'Opération Barkhane' is a French-led
military operation to eliminate Islamist terrorism that has been taking place
in the African Sahel since August 2014<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
It currently comprises 4,500 soldiers (as of 2020). The area of operations
covers the former French colonies of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and
Niger. These countries form the G5 Sahel, which was created in 2014 and
provides a rapid reaction force (G5 Sahel Joint Force) of 5000 soldiers and police
officers (since 2019 led by Nigerian Brigadier General Oumarou Namata, on photo above)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">An interesting (French) map by Sara Bosmann
(Twitter: @mindthemap) was recently published by NeoGeoPo, a French
geopolitical newsletter. The map illustrates the locations of military
operations and the geostrategic mix (raw material fields, trade routes, escape
routes) in which they operate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Figure
1: The geostrategic situation in the Sahel<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP9tz5r_M2N0nW3o2yIIgYf5hr932U3234LdvsXwoX1Xpd-viU6Mm6VXW1Y7hYGrc3t8VBiLJYiTo5-pF9JNpF95Fe7qTQ-YSXhHSFwb3j23K3PWxTepq5LE2PI7r9-9eJiNv25EH0Qv4/s800/Sahelzone.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="800" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP9tz5r_M2N0nW3o2yIIgYf5hr932U3234LdvsXwoX1Xpd-viU6Mm6VXW1Y7hYGrc3t8VBiLJYiTo5-pF9JNpF95Fe7qTQ-YSXhHSFwb3j23K3PWxTepq5LE2PI7r9-9eJiNv25EH0Qv4/w512-h342/Sahelzone.png" width="512" /></a></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXrPFbuEWcEBA99iRL-2rI5bWLU_CC_2wOSpJI8pXC-aSfPXZvLGuCyOurAIvCQ6ru-A-u0GsVpzcBo38AX9hePoJhjNJ6-VWhYc7FB-1nB7O688GBy7wyWqK2_14d-0VYpgPhvzRUc5w/s809/Sahelzone+Legende.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="809" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXrPFbuEWcEBA99iRL-2rI5bWLU_CC_2wOSpJI8pXC-aSfPXZvLGuCyOurAIvCQ6ru-A-u0GsVpzcBo38AX9hePoJhjNJ6-VWhYc7FB-1nB7O688GBy7wyWqK2_14d-0VYpgPhvzRUc5w/w512-h338/Sahelzone+Legende.png" width="512" /></a></div><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Source: Sara Bosmanns, via NeoGeoPol<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">At the end of May, the German Bundestag
extended the mandates for the participation of the Bundeswehr in European Union
(EUTM Mali) and United Nations (MINUSMA) military missions in Mali. This means
that a total of up to 1,550 German soldiers can be deployed in Mali and the
Sahel, more than in Afghanistan at present. In a clever essay<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
Denis Tull (SWP Berlin and Institut de Recherche Stratégique de l'École
Militaire, Paris) asks the crucial question, but unfortunately it cannot be
answered clearly: What lessons can be learned from the engagement in Afghanistan
to operate more successfully in the Sahel?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Security, political and social trends in
the Sahel are mostly negative. This would suggest that the military approach is
not working, as it already didn´t in the Middle East. The massive use of
military means in the Sahel region may be counterproductive. A shift in
emphasis towards a stronger focus on civil security forces, justice and law
enforcement agencies, possibly against French security interests, is
conceivable. However, the call for more autonomy combined with empty governance
formulas ignores conflicting interests and conflicts between local actors, and
Europe's fear of migration and terrorism weakens the instrument of
conditionality.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Mali's institutional instability raises
questions about the future of French and multinational military operations. It
is always delicate to engage militarily in a country whose sovereignty is
undefined. It is even more delicate for French troops in a former colony,
especially after years of counter-couping. Although France rules out direct
military intervention, fearing to be accused of colonial invasion with
reference to its former role, it is still afraid of being accused of
colonialism. (This will of course not prevent such accusations from being made
anyway). But if the power vacuum in Mali deepens, French and other expats are
directly threatened, a division of the country cannot be ruled out and
totalitarian Islamic fundamentalists could take control of Mali.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Will we want to defend Europe's freedom in
Mali?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"> </span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Michael von der Schulenburg (2020), “</span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.ipg-journal.de/regionen/global/artikel/detail/ende-mit-schrecken-4190/"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Ende mit Schrecken</span></a></span><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">“, ipg-journal, 25/3/2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Wikipedia, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_U.S._troops_from_Afghanistan#Plans_by_the_administration_of_Donald_Trump">Withdrawal
of U.S. troops from Afghanistan</a>, retrieved 25/8/2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Wikipedia, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant</span></a></span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">, retrieved 25/8/2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> EUTM, Mission Background, <a href="https://eutmmali.eu/factsheet-eutm-mali/">https://eutmmali.eu/factsheet-eutm-mali/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Michael Goya (2020), “<a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/monde/coup-d-etat-militaire-au-mali-barkhane-se-retrouve-visible-au-coeur-du-desordre-20200820">Coup
d’État militaire au Mali: «Barkhane se retrouve visible au cœur du désordre</a>»,
Le Figaro, 21st <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>August.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Oumarou Namata (2020), „<a href="https://adf-magazine.com/2020/05/a-long-term-struggle/">A Long-Term
Struggle</a>”, adf-magazine, 23rd June.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Europe%20Freedom%20and%20Sahel.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> Denis M. Tull (2020), “<a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/german-and-international-crisis-management-in-the-sahel/">German
and International Crisis Management in the Sahel: Why Discussions about Sahel
Policy Are Going around in Circles</a>”, SWP Comment 2020/C 27, June 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-84225756593601226852020-08-03T11:01:00.005+02:002020-08-03T16:45:54.501+02:00The New DAC Method of Reporting Debt Relief as ODA: HIPC Redux?<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Donors have
agreed on a new accounting method aid treatment of debt relief on 24/07/2020. At
first glance, these are good news for Covid-stricken poor countries. </span><span lang="">Debt write-offs have helped in the past stimulate new investment
and lower funding cost as a debt overhang has been removed, most notably via
the HIPC and MDRI initiatives<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
But to what extent does the new DAC method of reporting debt relief as aid
improve funding prospects for the poorest countries?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">To help alleviate funding shortfalls among
the world’s poorest economies, many of which are in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA),
international organisations and the G20<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><sup><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></sup></a>
had called on bilateral creditors to suspend debt payments from fiscally
constrained countries. A debt service relief package has been approved by some
of the world’s biggest lenders for more than 25 African countries, including
the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the G20, the African
Development Bank, and all Paris Club creditors. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">So debt service payments to official multi-
and bilateral creditors have been effectively halted since the Covid pandemic. However,
neither China nor private creditors seem to have bought into a formal debt
relief deal orchestrated by official efforts<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><sup><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></sup></a>.
These creditors might be free riders of official debt relief as their claims
could gain in market value.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">End July 2020, members of the OECD
Development Assistance Committee (DAC), comprised of <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dac/development-assistance-committee/" target="_blank" title="Home%20%BB%20OECD.org%20%BB%20Directorates%20%BB%20Development%20Co-operation%20Directorate%20%BB%20Development%20Assistance%20Committee%20%28DAC%29">29
donor countries and the EU</a>, have agreed on a method for reporting debt
relief as grant-equivalent ODA. Alongside reporting on a grant-equivalent
basis, ODA figures will continue to be calculated, reported and published on
the previous cash-flow system<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
The DAC Chair, Susanna Moorehead, hailed the new accounting method on Twitter
(30/07/2020): “</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Really
important milestone! This collective decision by the DAC will generate
much-needed support and development impact. It responds to developing
countries' calls for increased debt relief by increasing incentives for donors
to issue debt relief whilst protecting <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ODA?src=hashtag_click">#ODA</a> integrity”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Oil exporting countries and Heavily
Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) have been the main drivers for the rapid
accumulation of public debt in SSA).<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> Fitch
Ratings</i> forecasts the median government debt/GDP ratio for the 19
Fitch-rated SSA sovereigns to reach 71% at end-2020, from 57% at end-2019 and
26% in 2012<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><sup><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></sup></a>.
With an average SSA export/GDP ratio (2018) of 25% according to the <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/Default.aspx?lang=en">World Bank WITS</a>, the
prospective end-2020 median SSA debt/export ratio can be quickly approximated
at 280%. To be sure, post Covid debt ratios can´t be estimated with any
precision as foreign exports as well as domestic currencies and GDPs have
tumbled, leading to inflate debt ratios through a multitude of channels. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang=""><o:p> </o:p></span>As we learned 20ys ago (HIPC), however, the
amount of *true debt relief* implied by the new DAC method will depend on how
far the market value of debt forgiven was below its face value. Relief is zero
if discount is at 100% and even negative if other ODA is lowered<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span></span></a>.
Again today, the new DAC method seems distorted by a lack of perspective on the
‘market value’ of the debt which is ´reliefed´. Understandable, because SSA
official debt is not quoted on secondary markets. But it can be simulated, as
Cohen (2000) did twenty years ago (see Table).</p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="">Table:
Cohen´s Price Estimates<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTable15Grid6Colorful" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: -1; mso-yfti-lastfirstrow: yes;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #666666 1.5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 5; text-align: center;"><b><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">D/X, %<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1.5pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #666666 1.5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: center;"><b><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">D, Secondary Market Price<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1.5pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #666666 1.5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: center;"><b><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">D, Marginal Price<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">150<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">61<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">30<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">200<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">46<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">10<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">250<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">36<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">300<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">23<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 151.05pt;" valign="top" width="302">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span lang="" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">-3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">D/X= debt-export ratio, %.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">The appropriate ‘market value’ takes
account of the risk of non‐payment: arrears, rescheduling and ‘constrained’
refinancing of various sorts. Building on econometric evidence that relied on
middle income debtors in the 1980s, the Cohen had argued that the HIPC
initiative was about ten times less generous than face value accounting had
suggested. With a prospective end-2020 median SSA debt/export ratio approximated
at 280% (see above), imputed secondary market prices are below 30% and marginal
debt prices at zero. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">One can certainly argue with the numbers
but not with the principles: DAC donors are granting relief on debt that was
almost worthless anyhow. While thus probably helping DAC donors to overstate
ODA numbers via debt relief along the grant-equivalent method, the new method
of accounting for debt relief might also crowd out traditional aid flows. The
new DAC accounting method would free few ressources in itself while the
reduction of traditional aid flows would be a net loss for aid recipients.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">It is important, therefore, to resuscitate
a former ODA concept: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Country
Programmable Aid</i> (CPA) reflects the amount of aid that can be programmed by
the recipient at partner country level<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
CPA is necessary to reestablish <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">DAC
donors´ balance sheet truth and clarity</i>. Otherwise, the new DAC method of debt
relief will allow DAC agencies to brag big ODA numbers that do not reach needy
low-income country budgets. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> HIPC (Highly Indebted Poor Country) coordinated debt relief was provided
by bilateral Paris Club creditors from 1996 and was reinforced by the MDRI (Multilateral
Debt Relief Initiative) in 2005 to allow for the cancellation of claims on HIPC
completion point countries by the IMF, WBG and the AfDB.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Jonesday (2020), <a href="https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2020/07/g20-debt-relief-for-developing-countries"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">G20 Debt Relief for Developing
Countries—Less Simple than it Appears</i></a>, Insights, July. See also the
call by the African Union for debt relief <a href="https://www.statecraft.co.in/article/african-union-calls-for-debt-relief-and-suspension-of-sanctions-amid-covid-19-crisis">https://www.statecraft.co.in/article/african-union-calls-for-debt-relief-and-suspension-of-sanctions-amid-covid-19-crisis</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> The Conversation (2020), <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-african-countries-are-reluctant-to-take-up-covid-19-debt-relief-140643"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Why African countries are reluctant to take
up COVID-19 debt relief</i></a>, 28/07/2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> The new methodology for reporting on debt relief in the grant
equivalent system is complicated. It takes 26 (!) pages of description; see OECD
(2020), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://www.oecd.org/dac/financing-sustainable-development/development-finance-standards/Reporting-Debt-Relief-In-Grant-Equivalent-System.pdf">Reporting
on Debt Relief in the Grant Equivalent System</a></i>, DAC, 30/07/2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Fitch Ratings (2020), <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/rising-debt-distress-in-sub-saharan-africa-30-06-2020"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Rising Debt Distress in Sub-Saharan Africa</i></a>,
Special Report, London, 30/06/2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Daniel Cohen (2000), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/devaaa/166-en.html">The Hipc Initiative:
True and False Promises</a></i>, OECD Development Centre Working Paper No. 166,
October. Also published as Cohen (2003), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-2362.00078">International
Finance</a></i>, Vol. 4.3., Winter 2001, pp. 363-380.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Method%20of%20Reporting%20Debt%20Relief%2030_07_2020.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> CPA is defined through exclusions, by subtracting from gross ODA
aid that is unpredictable by nature (humanitarian aid and debt forgiveness and
reorganisation), entails no cross-border flows (development research in donor
country, promotion of development awareness, imputed student costs, refugees in
donor country and administrative costs), does not form part of co-operation
agreements between governments (food aid and aid extended by local governments
in donor countries), is not country programmable by the donor (core funding to
national NGOs and International NGOs), or is not susceptible for programming at
country level (e.g. contributions to Public Private Partnerships, for some
donors aid extended by other agencies than the main aid agency). See <a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/DAC%20Glossary%20of%20Key%20Terms%20and%20Concepts">DAC Glossary of Key
Terms and Concepts</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div><br />ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-25792641156535716682020-07-17T10:10:00.010+02:002020-07-17T10:46:42.083+02:00The OECD Development Centre in the 1990s<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">This post is a follow-up to <a href="https://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-oecd-development-centre-in-1980s.html">https://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-oecd-development-centre-in-1980s.html</a>
for the 1990s. If you have not done so, I recommend to read the post on the
1980s first. The focus here is on <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">my</i>
time at the OECD Development Centre and on its bosses. So do not expect a balanced
presentation of the history of the Centre. These are my personal perspectives
only.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><span lang="">Table 1: One female & six male heads of the OECD Development
Centre, from 1983</span></b><span lang=""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTable15Grid4" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: -1; mso-yfti-lastfirstrow: yes;">
<td style="background: black; border: 1pt solid black; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 5;"><b><span style="color: white; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-themecolor: background1;">Period<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: black; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: 1pt solid black; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1;"><b><span style="color: white; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-themecolor: background1;">Development Centre<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: black; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: 1pt solid black; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1;"><b><span style="color: white; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-themecolor: background1;">OECD<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: black; border: 1pt solid black; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1;"><b><span style="color: white; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-themecolor: background1;">Period<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;"><b><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">1983-85<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Justus Faaland (†2017), N<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Emile van Lennep (†1996), NL<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">1969-84<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;"><b><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">1985-92<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Louis
Emmerij (†2019), NL<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Jean-Claude
Paye, F<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">1984-94<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;"><b><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">1993-99<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Jean Bonvin (†2017), CH<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Don Johnston, Can<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">1996-06<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;"><b><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">1999-03<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Jorge
Braga de Macedo, P<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;"><b><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">2003-07<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Louka Katseli, Gr<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">José Ángel Gurría, Mex<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">2006-<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;"><b><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">2007-10<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Javier
Santiso, Esp<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;"><b><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">2010-<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">Mario Pezzini, I<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: DE;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">While <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Louis
Emmerij</i> was still in charge, his Swiss deputy <a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Bonvin"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Jean Bonvin</i></a> was running the Development Centre in reality.
Unlike Big Louis, Jean worked long hours. For the team worker, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Catherine Duport</i> (administration), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Flora Feigenspan</i> (Council) and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Morag Soranna</i> (a Scottish allrounder, a
heavy smoker with heavy files in her office) were his close support. Jean was a
fighter, and this was a major quality needed to defend the independence of the
OECD Development Centre throughout the 1990s.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj705hj0PZQGkIWeQJD2fE7mmFWBXClep5g_Px7lbhyg889cxDphJi73OvQycGSFszTbYbrf8cjZ9SFId6WVlxN9nAjDQ46HIuute2n7xfhWN_Y9vNVICCsCM3EmRD8Id5sIhyphenhyphen1IQTTWFo/s828/Jean_Bonvin_Diplomate.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="771" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj705hj0PZQGkIWeQJD2fE7mmFWBXClep5g_Px7lbhyg889cxDphJi73OvQycGSFszTbYbrf8cjZ9SFId6WVlxN9nAjDQ46HIuute2n7xfhWN_Y9vNVICCsCM3EmRD8Id5sIhyphenhyphen1IQTTWFo/s320/Jean_Bonvin_Diplomate.jpg" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Equipped with an economics doctorate of the
leading business school St. Gallen (Switzerland), Jean Bonvin had worked for
UNESCO in the 1970s and then, on leave from the Swiss development agency SDC in
Burundi. He founded in Bujumbura the new Faculty of Economic and Social
Sciences, of which he was the Dean<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><sup><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></sup></a>.
Jean did scientific fieldwork with thousand smallfarmers, joint with
sociologues and anthropologues. Having joined the OECD Development Centre in
1980, Jean was elected (with JC Paye´s support) its President by the
Ambassadors´ Council. He would later seek a privileged contact with those
diplomats, which led to a series of lectures by eminent academics and
politicians. When Don Johnson followed upon JC Paye as the SG of OECD, however,
the US Treasury became more proactive (via Bill Witherell).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For Jean Bonvin and the Centre, this meant
yet more headwind.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Jean Bonvin played an early role in
bringing emerging countries (South Korea, India, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina,
Chile, South Africa) closer to the OECD Development Centre, some of which have
since become full OECD members. Upon the earlier impulse provided by staff
member <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Michael Oborne<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></i>,
Jean Bonvin initiated the OECD's first research on China's five special
economic zones and then established relations with research institutes, notably
the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. From 1992, in partnership with China´s
Minister of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence, Bonvin
launched a major project on the conversion of military industries into civilian
industries involving 3 million Chinese workers. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Meanwhile, the scholarly standards were
again rising at the Centre. In 1990, <i>Kiichiro Fukasaku </i>joined
the Centre from GATT (now WTO); Ki would not only produce like clockwork
economic studies dear to the Japanese delegation (e.g., on China´s opening<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
trade, FDI and policy coherence), but became known for collaborating with
junior staff that would later make great careers inside the OECD (<i>Federico
Bonaglia</i>, <i>Marcos Bonturi</i>, <i>Luiz de Mello</i>, to name a
few). To his very great regret, Ki could not prevent the Japanese to quit the
Centre; Japan´s submission to US diplomacy was stronger than her consideration
for the countryman. Like me, Ki stayed until 2012 as head of division. He would
then divide his time between Tokyo (Keio U) and St. Cloud. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Prof. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Jean-Claude
Berthélemy</i> joined from Université de Paris 1, like Christian Morrisson had
done in the 1980s<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Jean, whose command of English stayed fairly limited, was naturally at ease to
communicate with and to rely on these two very solid francophone economists. Jean-Claude
attracted another francophone economist from Strasbourg University, the Greek
Professor <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Aristides
Varoudakis</i>. Both worked on the new growth theory, very much in fashion at
that time, and what it meant for the role of financial policies in poor countries<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Meanwhile, economist <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ulrich Hiemenz</i> had joined the Development Centre as Deputy Director
from the Kiel Institute in 1995, to stay until 2005. His role remained
mostly confined to internal management; as he had been imposed by the German
BMZ without any German follow-up on content or strategy, he may have been
considered with some suspicion by both Bonvin and the SG of the OECD. Ulrich
took special care of some flagship publications such as the IDB-Centre seminars
and the nascent African Economic Outlook.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Brazil had joined the Centre already in
1997, Korea in 1996, and Mexico in 1994 (which I had the honour to visit in
1993 as part of an OECD team to prepare the country´s accession). This changed
the nature of the Centre´s Advisory Board, away from a focus on diplomatic
procedure to debate on substance of the Centre research programmes. The new
ambassadors from emerging countries were not the European diplomats sent to the
OECD mostly without proper training (and motivation). They were economists and
politicians who knew development from bottom up.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">After Jean Bonvin retired, Professor <a href="https://www.cigionline.org/person/jorge-braga-de-macedo"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Jorge Braga de Macedo</i></a>, a former
finance minister from Portugal, was nominated in 1999 as new Development Centre
President. Having obtained a Ph.D. from Yale U, an economics professor at Universidade
Nova de Lisboa since 1976, a member of both the world´s leading economics
networks (NBER and CEPR) and a former member of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Eurogroup</i>, Jorge was well connected with mainstream economists.
Which suit me fine, but others were afraid of simple application of mainstream
policies to deep-rooted development issues. As Jorge was as keen on the debate
of appropriate currency regimes for small open economies as I was, we became
sparring partners on the issue, reinforced by Professor <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Daniel Cohen</i> (ENS Paris). I like to think that our book has aged
fairly well<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Perhaps the most cited book under Braga´s leadership was the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Festschrift</i> looking back at the Centre´s
history on occasion of its 40<sup>th</sup> anniversary<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Braga, a combination of wit and stinginess, advised me to publish less (!) as
he aimed to shine as Centre president.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6-oDvBvkD_oAyiM-bsl9trfhhYjRGs1c1dZf3JW8mvpfmCedn9dP7bjTF0t6wxzll_Li_tFEM-t5LjCQ1ohkJaA4sTvcWeLPiXzkP-l7zFYCM7qFR7OftcFIrJA74JrFM-OFHmMsFskM/s266/Braga+de+M.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="266" data-original-width="190" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6-oDvBvkD_oAyiM-bsl9trfhhYjRGs1c1dZf3JW8mvpfmCedn9dP7bjTF0t6wxzll_Li_tFEM-t5LjCQ1ohkJaA4sTvcWeLPiXzkP-l7zFYCM7qFR7OftcFIrJA74JrFM-OFHmMsFskM/w238-h333/Braga+de+M.jpg" width="238" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">Indeed, the 1990s were good to me, with
hindsight my best decade at the Centre. Starting from debt, financial opening
and currency issues, I directed my analysis toward the impact of financial
institutions for emerging countries, in particular pension funds and rating
agencies. Often, I would bring policy lessons from Asia to Latin America and
vice versa. Thanks to the painstaking formatting by <i>Terri Wells</i>, the OECD published with Edward Elgar Publishing two
books with my collected essays of the 1990s. The first, published in 1994, dealt
with international monetary problems in East Asia and Latin America<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span></span></a>,
notably public finance, the macroeconomics of financial opening, and exchange
rate management. The follow-up, published in 2000, explored the international
aspects of pension reform, sovereign ratings, private savings and volatile
capital flows<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn9" name="_ftnref9" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span></span></a>.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">Most quoted scholarly articles stemming
from the 1990s were those on sovereign ratings<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn10" name="_ftnref10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
pension savings<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
and pension investment (for Chile´s finance ministry)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn12" name="_ftnref12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
sustainable current account imbalances<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn13" name="_ftnref13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
managing the capital account<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn14" name="_ftnref14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
and measuring its openess<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn15" name="_ftnref15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Based on those and earlier publications, I was awarded <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Habilitation</i> and became Adjunct Professor at Basel University. Two
essays were awarded awards in the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Amex
Bank Review essay competition in international finance</i> in 1993 and 1994
(subsequently discontinued). The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Financial
Times</i> asked to write a comment on sovereign ratings (<a href="https://www.internetional.se/rating981.htm">Green Light for Danger</a>, 3/2/1998), while The Economist
devoted a couple of Economic Focus Page(s) to my output. Sebastian Edwards
(UCLA) invited me to Caracas to present my thoughts on beating the Impossible
Trinity through generalised sterilisation of inflows at an NBER seminar.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="">My expertise emerging-country macroeconomic
led to several noteworthy invitations by central bank governors, finance
ministries and government think tanks. As I advocated capital-inflow controls
and managed (rather than floating or pegged) exchange rates long before such
advice became mainstream even with the IMF, I was unpopular inside the OECD that
defended its Codes of liberalisation. Emerging-country authorities appreciated
this advice as they were eager to defend their non-traditional export sector in
the face of appreciation pressure excerted by hot money inflows. I recall
invitations to Taiwan (Paul Chiu, h/t Maxwell Fry)), Chile (Roberto Zahler and
José Antonio Ocampo, h/t Ricardo Ffrench-Davis<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn16" name="_ftnref16" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn16;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>),
Korea (Sang Woo Nam and Yung Chul Park), Thailand after the Baht crisis (M.R. Chatu
Mongol Sonakul), Israel (Jacob Frenkel and Leonardo Leiderman), Pakistan
(Sartaj Aziz), some Central European countries and also the Österreichische
Nationalbank as well as the Federal Reserve of San Fransisco<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn17" name="_ftnref17" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn17;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
My friend Bernhard Fischer and I presented (and informed us) at SEACEN in Kuala
Lumpur and Indonesia´s government in Jakarta (with support by then IMF ResRep Klaus
Regling) our macro-financial sequencing advice for how to – prudently - open
the capital account<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftn18" name="_ftnref18" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn18;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[18]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">The Korean authorities, before joining the
OECD in 1996, had even asked the Secretary General that I be their advisor for
the accession process; but that I learned only a while after the event…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Elyse Ngabire (2017), „<a href="https://www.iwacu-burundi.org/hommage-jean-bonvin-un-grand-ami-du-burundi-restera-parmi-nous/">Hommage:
Jean Bonvin, un grand ami du Burundi, restera parmi nous</a>”, Iwacu – La Voix
du Burundi, 29<sup>th</sup> March.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Michael W. Oborne (1986), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">China's
Special Economic Zones</i>, Paris: OECD Development Centre Studies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> See, e.g., Kiichiro Fukasaku and David Wall (1994), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">China´s Long March to an Open Economy</i>,
Paris: OECD Development Centre Studies; Kiichiro Fukasaku & Henri-Bernard
Solignac Lecomte (1996), "Economic Transition and Trade-Policy Reform:
Lessons from China," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 112; Kiichiro
Fukasaku & Yu Ma & Qiumei Yang, 1999. "China's Unfinished
Open-Economy Reforms: Liberalisation of Services," OECD Development Centre
Working Papers 147.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> I have touched upon Christian´s work in my post on the Development
Centre in the 1980s.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Their most-cited joint publication arising from jount work at the
Centre is JC Berthélemy & A. Varoudakis (1996), <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oep/article-abstract/48/2/300/2361594">Economic
growth, convergence clubs, and the role of financial development</a>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Oxford Economic Papers</i>, Volume 48, Issue
2, April 1996, pp. 300–32.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Jorge Braga De Macedo, Daniel Cohen, and Helmut Reisen (2001), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Don't Fix, Don't Float: The Exchange Rate in
Emerging Markets, Transition Economies, and Developing Countries</i>, Paris:
OECD Development Centre Studies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Jorge Braga de Macedo, Colm Foy and Charles P. Oman (2002), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Development is Back</i>, Paris: OECD Development
Centre.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Helmut Reisen (1994), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Debt,
Deficits and Exchange Rates</i>: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Essays
on Financial Interdependence and Development</i>, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.,
UK.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn9" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref9" name="_ftn9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Helmut Reisen (2000), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Pensions,
Savings and Capital Flows: From Ageing to Emerging Markets,</i> Edward Elgar
Publishing Ltd., UK.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn10" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref10" name="_ftn10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Helmut Reisen & Julia Von Maltzan (1999), „<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-2362.00028">Boom and
bust and sovereign ratings</a>“, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">International
Finance</i>, Vol. 2.2., pp. 273-293. Julia married the ´future President of
Brazil´ and is a Professor at business school <a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Funda%C3%A7%C3%A3o%20Getulio%20Vargas">Fundação
Getulio Vargas</a>, Sao Paulo (Brazil).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn11" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref11" name="_ftn11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Jeannine Bailliu and Helmut Reisen (1998), “<a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/BF02773293.pdf">Do funded
pensions contribute to higher aggregate savings? A cross-country analysis</a>”,
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv</i>, Vol.
134.4, pp. 692-711. </span>Jeannine Bailliu today is a senior policy
advisor at the Bank of Canada.</p><p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span lang=""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn12" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref12" name="_ftn12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Helmut Reisen and John Williamson (1997), „<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X97000144">Liberalizing
foreign investments by pension funds: positive and normative aspects</a>“, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">World Development</i>, Vol. 25.7, pp.
1173-82. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn13" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref13" name="_ftn13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Helmut Reisen (1998), „<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1006850620095">Sustainable
and excessive current account deficits</a>“, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Empirica</i>, Vol. 25.2, pp. 111-131.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn14" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref14" name="_ftn14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Helmut Reisen (1996), „<a href="https://think-asia.org/bitstream/handle/11540/5370/Volume%2014_No%201_1996_03.pdf?sequence=1">Managing
Volatile Capital Inflows: The Experience of the 1990s</a>”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Asian Development Review</i>, vol. 14, no.
1, pp. 47-64.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn15" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref15" name="_ftn15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Helmut Reisen and Hélène Yèches (1993), „<a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/paper/424740140426?crawler=true">Time-varying
estimates on the openness of the capital account in Korea and Taiwan</a>“, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Journal of Development Economics</i>, Vol.
41. 2, pp. 285-305.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn16" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref16" name="_ftn16" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn16;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> On the very specific macroeconomic conditions when private capital
inflows help sustain development see Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Helmut Reisen
(1998), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/capital-flows-and-investment-performance_9789264163454-en">Capital
Flows and Investment Performance: Lessons from Latin America</a></i>, Paris.
OECD Development Centre Studies<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn17" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref17" name="_ftn17" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn17;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[17]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Jeffrey A. Frankel (1994), “<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Sterilization-of-Money-Inflows-Difficult-Calvo-or-Easy-Reisen-1850">Sterilization
of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?</a>”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">IMF Working Paper</i> No. 94/159. The debate
focussed on Helmut Reisen (1993), “South-East Asia and the Impossible Trinity”,
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">International Economic Insights </i>(PIIE),
pp. 21-23.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn18" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/The%20OECD%20Development%20Centre%20in%20the%201990s.docx#_ftnref18" name="_ftn18" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn18;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[18]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang=""> Bernhard Fischer and Helmut Reisen (1992), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/devaab/4-en.html">Policies
towards Capital Account Convertibility</a></i>, OECD Development Centre Policy
Brief No. 4. We also organised a seminar at the OECD on Financial Opening with,
among others, William Branson, Daniel Cohen, Mario Draghi, Bruno Frey, Maxwell
Fry, Stephany Griffith-Jones, Peter Kenen, and Jürgen von Hagen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div><br />ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-3255333994198339702020-06-24T18:31:00.122+02:002020-06-29T11:57:27.907+02:00The OECD Development Centre in the 1980s<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The OEEC
had been the European child of the Marshall Plan since 1948, the OECD was its
North Atlantic grandchild since 1961; the OECD Development Centre became its
South oriented late-birth. Founded in 1962 at the suggestion of US
President John F. Kennedy<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
the semi-autonomous research-oriented institution was intended to serve as a
forum for the exchange of policy know-how and as a link between OECD members
and developing countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Despite
offers from the IMF (DC), Moody's (NYC), KfW (Ffm) and GIGA (HH), I remained
associated with the Development Centre in Paris for almost 29 long years<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
from 12/1983 to 9/2010. This post recollects <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">my</i> 1980s at the Centre.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Both the
OECD and the OECD Development Centre probably had the best time behind them in
December 1983, when I started there. Secretary General <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Emile van Lennep</i> had been highly regarded by the OECD economists
but was about to retire. He was a lawyer who was not a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Do-It-Yourself</i> economist and so enjoyed listening to his Economics
Department (all other departments were only entitled to refer to themselves as
Directorate). His Keynesian chief economist <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Stephen
Marris</i> was someone who did not allow himself to be infected by the then
popular currents in economics (rational expectations; supply-side theory). A
typical agency problem that was often encountered in multilateral
organizations: the agent only apparently cared about the preferences of his
member countries, the principal<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
In times of Reagan and Thatcher this could not go well for long.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQW5VE2rLJOvzcpKiF88FwoAfdtHmK1PYRuoV9geRhhm-0T1gXL3VaCRi3tUQn7Wq-jMbFYIwKVVcl-RhIfazZYqd1AhdhMPHudsTjwIRigcOUqo2maaXJyo0lXBpCyHzQEDgcQ1am-AI/s519/Ian+Little.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="519" data-original-width="406" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQW5VE2rLJOvzcpKiF88FwoAfdtHmK1PYRuoV9geRhhm-0T1gXL3VaCRi3tUQn7Wq-jMbFYIwKVVcl-RhIfazZYqd1AhdhMPHudsTjwIRigcOUqo2maaXJyo0lXBpCyHzQEDgcQ1am-AI/s320/Ian+Little.PNG" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The OECD
Development Centre had experienced its best period to this date thanks to the
British Deputy Director Prof. Ian M.D. Little<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
(†2012) who during his short term of office (1966-68), gathered around him
market friendly British and Indian top economists (e.g. Jagdish Bhagwati,
Deepak Lal, Sir James Mirless (Nobel 1996), Tibor Scitovsky, Maurice Scott).
Two studies - Manual of Industrial Project Analysis II, Social Cost Benefit
Analysis (1969) and Industry and Trade in Some Developing Countries (1970) -
had a lasting, albeit controversial, influence on the development economics
literature<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
When I joined the OECD Development Centre in December 1983, academic
orientation, liberalism and excellence had faded away, the key protagonists having
migrated mostly towards Nuffield College (Oxford U) and the World Bank.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The Centre
was thus market liberal during the Keynesian orientation of the OECD in the
1960s. Subsequently, the OECD gradually and belatedly shifted towards supply
side policy. Meanwhile, the Centre came increasingly under the influence of
small European OECD countries (Table 1) and moved into internal opposition to
the "main OECD” that was dominated by the US and the UK at the time. <i><a href="https://archives.eui.eu/en/fonds/250940?item=GF">Giulio Fossi</a></i>, who had joined the OEEC in 1949 and later the Centre in 1963, incarnated that opposition second to none. Responsable for external cooperation and aiming to link especially with NGOs active in the South, he was keen to counteract the OECD image as a rich man´s club. Closer to the Society for International Development (SID), Giulio despised bureaucratic censorship and defended researchers´ independence at the Development Centre.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Table 1: One female & six male heads of the OECD Development Centre,
from 1983<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTable15Grid4" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: -1; mso-yfti-lastfirstrow: yes;">
<td style="background-color: black; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid black; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 5;"><b><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Period<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: black; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top: 1pt solid black; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1;"><b><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Development
Centre<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: black; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid black; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top: 1pt solid black; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1;"><b><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">OECD<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: black; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid black; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1;"><b><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Period<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;"><b>1983-85<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Justus Faaland
(†2017), N<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Emile van
Lennep (†1996), NL<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1969-84<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;"><b>1985-92<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Louis Emmerij (†2019), NL<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jean-Claude Paye, F<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1984-94<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;"><b>1993-99<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jean Bonvin (†2017),
CH<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Don Johnston,
Can<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1996-06<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;"><b>1999-03<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jorge Braga de Macedo, P<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;"><b>2003-07<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Louka Katseli,
Gr<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">José Ángel
Gurría, Mex<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2006-<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;"><b>2007-10<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Javier Santiso, Esp<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;"><b>2010-<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 153.95pt;" valign="top" width="308">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Mario Pezzini, I<o:p></o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 148.85pt;" valign="top" width="298">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background-color: #cccccc; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-left-style: none; border-right: 1pt solid rgb(102, 102, 102); border-top-style: none; mso-background-themecolor: text1; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #666666 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 51.35pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The
Norwegian <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Just Faaland</b>, a former
concentration camp prisoner (Buchenwald 1943-45), became my first boss at the
OECD Development Centre; reluctantly, because I had published very little
academically until then and was arguably suspect to him as a German<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
A student of the Nobel Prize winner Ragnar Frisch, Faaland was employed in 1949
by the OEEC in Paris, where <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Angus
Maddison</i> and the later recipient (2005</span><span lang="" style="font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">)</span><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> of the Nobel
Prize, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tom Schelling</i>, worked among
others. In 1952 he was appointed a member of the Chr. Michelsen Institute
(Bergen), where he later served as director for 28 years<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Prof. Faaland advised several countries and international organisations before
becoming President of the OECD Development Centre. For his advisory work on
Malaysia's multi-ethnic Bumiputra policy, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tan
Sri</i> Just Faaland received the Merdeka Award in 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Through
Faaland's mediation I soon got to know the Scottish bestselling author of the
Development Centre - the "chiffrephil" economic historian <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Angus Maddison</i><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
- who had previously worked with the OEEC like Faaland. Since then Angus had
been commuting from his "electronic cottage" in northern France to
his chair at the University of Groningen and the OECD in Paris - unless he was traveling
through the big wide world to obtain historical output data. When we met at
lunch, Faaland and Maddison toasted Maggie Thatcher's future fall with
champagne. Cheekily, I had a glass of milk.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prof.</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> Christian Morisson </i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">joined the Centre in 1984; he would stay until 1994 as a head of research division. His appointment clearly brought back some academic spirit and Africa exposure to the Centre. </span></span>With Prof. Christian Morrisson joining from Université de Paris 1 , the Centre slowly started to recover at least in academic perception; not yet, however, in esteem inside the OECD family. Christian Morrison also attracted as a nonresident Prof. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">François Bourguignon</i> (later Chief Economist of the World Bank and then founding Rector PSE). Thus, before income inequality became a wildly popular subject of economics, Christian and François brought their expertise on global income distribution to the OECD Development Centre. (Cf. e.g. François Bourguignon & Christian Morrisson (1992), “<a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/00028280260344443">Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992</a>”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">American Economic Review, </i>VOL. 92, no. 4, September 2002, pp. 727-744. F. Bourgignon also coauthored the first working paper of OECD Development Centre, joint with the late W. Branson and J. de Melo (1989), "<a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/devaaa/1-en.html">Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution: A Macro-Micro Simulation Model</a>," OECD Development Centre Working Papers No. 1.)</p><p class="MsoNormal">Faaland's
presidency of the OECD Development Centre does not appear in any of the
obituaries nor in his wiki page. It was a big misunderstanding and ended
quickly. The shy, silent and distanced Norwegian despised the OECD and its
ambassadors, who liked to hear themselves talk but understood little about
development. This earned him a lot of sympathy from the staff; yet for his
political survival at the OECD this attitude was fatal<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn9" name="_ftnref9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjghKMAMZUteTPP8ssKz0nso4pxR1JJISzCLgjRx8_C19ssU0WAMpAQZvT-i25DK1vpUukVE24myDm9uYbIBvG_k-5SLxXbWe6shC17FtivAihY6YLNFKZdAvAxdALkrwvhcTfdbmTkZVo/s1668/faaland-omslag.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1668" data-original-width="1199" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjghKMAMZUteTPP8ssKz0nso4pxR1JJISzCLgjRx8_C19ssU0WAMpAQZvT-i25DK1vpUukVE24myDm9uYbIBvG_k-5SLxXbWe6shC17FtivAihY6YLNFKZdAvAxdALkrwvhcTfdbmTkZVo/s320/faaland-omslag.jpg" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">I myself
was sent out from Bonn for initially three years. I was asked in Paris to
publish on the subject of "Latin America's debt crisis and international
trade" - even upon request, the assignment was not made more specific.
Well... <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">After
publishing a first neo-classical childsplay (in the style of the exiled
Hungarian Bela Balassa) I discovered the obvious parallels between
hyperinflationary Latin America of the 1980s and post-war Germany of the 1920s.
The idea of catching up on the missing doctorate before my supposed return to
the BMWi quickly matured. Since Cologne could be quickly reached by train and
my sister lived there near the university, I contacted Prof. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Gerhard Fels</i> at the IW, who recommended
me to Prof. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hans Willgerodt</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ralph Anderegg</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">I literally
threw myself into the post-war literature on the German <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">reparations problem</i>. That the German transfer problem had many more
facets than just the foreign exchange problem (in the form of worsened terms of
trade) as emphasised by the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Keynes/Ohlin
debate</i>, that is what I learned especially in the writings of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fritz Machlup </i>and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Wilhelm Röpke</i>. Like the Germans forty years earlier, the net
financial transfers of several emerging countries failed not because of the
dollar problem, but because of the internal budgetary problem of raising funds<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn10" name="_ftnref10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
It was not easy to convince the development and finance directorates at the
OECD that indebted emerging countries did face a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">net financial transfer</i> problem; my proposition was flatly rejected
on the (fancy) argument that debt service was not a capital flow.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Since Latin
America's debt problem had so far been interpreted primarily as a dollar
problem, especially in Washington, DC, the OECD version made a splash, fired mainly
by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">William R. Cline</i> (PIIE) as spelled
out in his later review<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
and by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Vito Tanzi</i> (IMF). As fiscal
director of the IMF, Vito Tanzi also had a bureaucratic interest in my work: this
led to my own personal <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanzi_effect">Tanzi
effect</a>. He invited me to an IMF lecture in Washington and to the 1988
Istanbul Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance. This was
followed in 1989 by an invitation from the World Bank, just before the US
Treasury presented the Brady Plan, in which I explored the question of how the
industrialized countries were able to maintain their high public debt ratios
without a crisis after World War II. More than thirty years later, the Covid
crisis has brought the essay back up to date<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn12" name="_ftnref12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>. The Brady Plan gave rise to further work, joint with <i><a href="https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/our-people/faculty/bert-hofman">Bert Hofman</a></i> (who would later rise at the World Bank </span>to become its director for China), notably on the adjustment incentives of debt relief. See, e.g. <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/weltar/v127y1991i2p281-299.html">Review of World Econmics, 1991</a>). </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">With <i>Axel van Trrotsenburg</i></span>- who subsequently went to the World Bank - I published a first paper on the optimal monetary
regime in East Asia in the same year<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn13" name="_ftnref13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Here, the policy background was pressure by the US Treasury excerted on the Asian
NICs to appreciate their currencies and Bundesbank President <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Karl Otto Pöhl</i>´s advice to peg to the
Yen, on the pattern of the European Monetary System. From then, I was earmarked
in some minds (such as the brilliant <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Jeffrey
Shafer</i>) to sabotage the US Treasury. The 1980s were the heydays of
monetarists in two distinct varieties, domestic or international. The corollary
were extreme prescriptions for currency regimes: domestic monetarists (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Milton Friedman</i>) opted for a pure float of
the exchange rate, international monetarists (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Robert Mundell</i>) for a hard currency ped to an anchor currency. My
stance was in between these extremes; my conviction owed a lot to East Asia´s
growth performance based on reliably competitive real effective exchange rates
and to work by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Max Corden</i>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Sebastian Edwards</i>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Peter Kenen</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">John
Williamson</i>. Again, I got flak from the main OECD where New Zealand, a pure
floater, had some influence, not least through the formidable <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">John Llewellyn</i>.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL4sntxHASbVh88_icqJlrleIavHmrfsTGW0uEAhHJHQLld-K6TlibKv3gRj0aU_idDPOrim7IVLNVvaLSUtP4bH6_A-1rAbFSH85DRnEya24pSqdmnSUYiyPLsEyruPM8skuNlyk6HLs/s142/Emmerij.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="120" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL4sntxHASbVh88_icqJlrleIavHmrfsTGW0uEAhHJHQLld-K6TlibKv3gRj0aU_idDPOrim7IVLNVvaLSUtP4bH6_A-1rAbFSH85DRnEya24pSqdmnSUYiyPLsEyruPM8skuNlyk6HLs/w188-h223/Emmerij.jpg" width="188" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Just
Faaland's Dutch successor <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Louis Emmerij</b>
(also "Big Louis") came from The Hague, where he had previously
served for nine years as Rector of the Institute of Social Studies, without
fulfilling his ambition to become Dutch Development Minister (like his PvdA
party friend Jan Pronk). Before that, Big Louis had earned merits at the ILO,
where he had headed the World Employment Program from 1971-76. Under Big Louis'
leadership, the concept of basic needs had been developed, a forerunner of the
Human Development Index later developed by UNDP head <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mahbub Ul Haq</i>, who shaped the development debate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Emmerij
brought some interesting economists to the Centre (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Eliana Cardoso</i> with <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Rudi
Dornbusch</i>; <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Jacques J. Polak</i>; <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Keith B. Griffin</i>). Rudi lobbied <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Peter Kenen</i> to disseminate my
dissertation globally in a concentrated form as a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Princeton Study in International Finance<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn14" name="_ftnref14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></i>.
For Jacques Polak I became the in-house sparring partner of two OECD
publications, of considerable interest given Polak´s great influence at the
Fund<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn15" name="_ftnref15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Emmerij's
father had died in 1945 in the Dachau concentration camp<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftn16" name="_ftnref16" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn16;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
As a German, I was treated quite reservedly by Big Louis for understandable
reasons, like I was previously treated by Just Faaland. My macro themes
"your pet subject" did not interest him very much either.
Nevertheless, I admired Big Louis for his alert intelligence and punctual
limited working hours. And I forgave the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">caviar
socialist</i> for his feudal predilections; at noon he had his own chauffeur
drive him in the official car to the expensive country club in nearby <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bois de Boulogne</i>, where he liked to keep
court when the weather was good.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Either Louis
Emmerij seems to have left no lasting mark as Centre President or the OECD is sloppy in keeping up its records on the internet, so much institutional memory gets erased. Neither the
OECD's iLibrary nor the OECD Development Centre lists Big Louis, which could suggest that
he did not leave behind any enduring conference volumes. In fact, he would start a very fruitful collaboration with Enrique Iglesisas at the IDB, which gave rise to a first joint IDB/Development Centre seminar in late 1990. (I will come back to those in the next post on the 1990s). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><font face="inherit">Big Louis
made good personnel decisions</font>, however. He also lured back <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">David Turnham</i>, who Ian Little had already brought along as a
research assistant and who since the 1970s had been working for the World Bank.
David was one of the first to address the problem of underemployment in poor
countries. In 1988, the South African high flyer <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ian Goldin</i> was also hired (from Oxford U). He ran research on Changing Comparative Advantage in Food and Agriculture, to promote less protective agricultural policies in OECD countries. With the support of Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, a general equilibrium model saw the light: the Rural/Urban-North/South (RUNS) model. "Have model, will travel" (so David Turnham). Indeed, <font face="inherit">Ian did not stay long at the Centre (1988-92)<font face="inherit"> </font>as he was</font><font face="arial"> </font></span><font face="inherit"><span style="background-color: white; text-align: justify;">invited by Nelson Mandela to join his government at t</span><span style="background-color: white; text-align: justify;">he helm of the state-owned Development Bank of Southern Africa</span><span style="background-color: white; text-align: justify;">. On that period, read Ian Goldin´s <a href="https://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/4241/President_Nelson_Mandela:_Some_personal_reflections.html">obituary of Mandela in the OECD Observer</a>. </span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">The establishment of the OECD
Development Centre was proposed by US President John F. Kennedy in a speech to
the Canadian Parliament in Ottawa on 17 May 1961: </span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/tVO4HifEqEk"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">https://youtu.be/tVO4HifEqEk</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">In Germany (1976-1983), I had
four employers during a rather short period as a professional economist. See </span></span><a href="https://reibreisen.blogspot.com/2020/06/meine-deutschen-chefs-1976-1983.html"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">https://reibreisen.blogspot.com/2020/06/meine-deutschen-chefs-1976-1983.html</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">. (available only in German)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">In multilateral
organizations, the double delegation problem (voter->government->IO)
complicates the principal-agent dilemma. Cf. Nielson, Parks & Tierney
(2017), „International organizations and development finance: introduction to
the special issue”, </span></span><a href="https://link.springer.com/journal/11558"><i><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The Review of International Organizations</span></i></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> , Vol. 12<b>,</b> pp.
157–169.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">For an appreciation of the
economist IMD Little, see C. Bliss and V. Joshi (2014). "</span></span><a href="https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/1499/14_Little_1808.pdf"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Ian Malcolm David Little 1918–2012</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">" (PDF). Biographical Memoirs
of Fellows of the British Academy. </span>XIII: 317–318.<span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">As usual, Prof. Little did not
mince his words in his recollections. Therefore worth reading: Ian Little
(2002), „</span></span><a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/development-is-back_9789264158528-en"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The Centre since the 1960s</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">“, in Jorge Braga de
Macedo, Colm Foy and Charles P. Oman (eds.), <i>Development
is Back</i>, Paris: OECD Development Centre, 257-262.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">The German delegation to the
OECD had speculated in vain on a high post at the Centre. It was only when this
appointment fell through that she put pressure for my candidacy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> </span><a href="https://www.cmi.no/news/1781-in-memory-of-just-faaland"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">https://www.cmi.no/news/1781-in-memory-of-just-faaland</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">Among his many OECD
bestsellers, the most cited is Angus Maddison (2006), </span></span><a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/the-world-economy_9789264022621-en"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The World Economy, Vol.1: A
Millenial Perspective; Vol. 2: Historical Statistics</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">, <i> </i>Paris: OECD
Development Centre.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn9" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref9" name="_ftn9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">Since the OECD does not
cultivate its institutional memory very much, it does not pay tribute to former
Development Centre presidents. Cf. the Chr. Michelsen Institute (2017), </span></span><a href="https://www.cmi.no/news/1781-in-memory-of-just-faaland"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In memory of Just Faaland</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> , Bergen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn10" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref10" name="_ftn10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Helmut
Reisen (1987), <i>Über das Transferproblem hochverschuldeter
Entwicklungsländer</i>, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden. <span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Extended OECD version Helmut Reisen
& Axel van Trotsenburg (1988), </span><i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Developing-Country-Debt-Budgetary-Development/dp/9264130535"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Developing Country Debt: The
Budgetary and Transfer Problem</span></a></i><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">, Paris: OECD Development Centre. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn11" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref11" name="_ftn11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">William R. Cline (1995), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">International Debt Reexamined</i>,
Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, pp.151-153.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn12" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref12" name="_ftn12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">Helmut Reisen (1989), “</span></span><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/253.html"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Public Debt, North and South</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">”, Policy Research Working Paper
Series 253, The World Bank.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn13" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref13" name="_ftn13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">Helmut Reisen & Axel van
Trotsenburg (1988), „</span></span><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/intere/v23y1988i4p172-177.html"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Should the Asian NICs Peg to the
Yen?</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">“, <i>Intereconomics</i>,
vol. 23(4), pages 172-177, July.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn14" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref14" name="_ftn14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">Helmut Reisen (1989), "</span></span><a href="https://ies.princeton.edu/pdf/S66.pdf"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Public Debt, External Competitiveness, And Fiscal Discipline In
Developing Countries</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">,"
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Princeton Studies in International
Economics 66</i>, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics
Princeton University.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p> </o:p></span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref15" name="_ftn15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">Jacques J. Polak
(1989), </span></span><a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/645471"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Financial Policies and Development</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">, Paris: OECD Development
Centre; J.J. Polak (1991), “</span><a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/the-changing-nature-of-imf-conditionality_187765075405"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The Changing Nature of IMF
Conditionality</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">”,
OECD Working Paper No. 41.</span></p></div>
<div id="ftn16" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/My%20Bosses%20at%20the%20OECD.docx#_ftnref16" name="_ftn16" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn16;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="">Richard Jolly (2020), „</span></span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/27/louis-emmerij-obituary"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Louis Emmerij obituary</span></a><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">“, <i>The Guardian</i>, 27
January.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn17" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><br /></p>
</div>
</div><br />ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-59291214530069907822020-05-29T17:55:00.000+02:002020-05-29T22:30:19.007+02:00Covid-19: Does rich-country lockdown raise poor-country child mortality?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Does the
German "lockdown"<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
endanger millions of children around the world? Tübingen's Mayor Boris Palmer
(Greens) had provoked at the end of April: "The shutdown, as we operate
it, tries to prolong the lives of very old, seriously ill people in the rich countries
and costs the lives of a much larger number of children in poor
countries". <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Is this
true?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As lively
as the general outrage about Palmer's thesis was, the connection "lockdown
here, dead children there" prima facie cannot be dismissed. After all,
Germany is an important part of the globalised economy, closely interwoven in
world trade and an important donor nation. And that child mortality continues
to be a major problem for the international community of states can be seen,
for example, in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs are
political objectives of the United Nations (UN), which are intended to ensure
sustainable development worldwide at the economic, social and ecological level.
And in particular goal 3.2 - the reduction of global infant mortality to a
maximum of 2.5% of all newborns five years after birth by 2030 - was already
far from the target set before the Covid pandemic<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
well before the target came into force in 2016.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlol-_t3h7wTfNhLCNpf_neswsCtU_t_axJDS68xnT21VhgKqWBDx3bKkFEGJirMGT016ZCjyJElerlQU2kUzU3DOl1vNvjm4Yg-4NRd-KTn1wsKk6PXSqXgtkYPwU2UmSFLfLeGutd3s/s1600/child-mortality-1990-vs-2017-slope.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1130" data-original-width="1600" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlol-_t3h7wTfNhLCNpf_neswsCtU_t_axJDS68xnT21VhgKqWBDx3bKkFEGJirMGT016ZCjyJElerlQU2kUzU3DOl1vNvjm4Yg-4NRd-KTn1wsKk6PXSqXgtkYPwU2UmSFLfLeGutd3s/s400/child-mortality-1990-vs-2017-slope.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">But a
closer search for clues proves (without reference to the dubious morality of
his claim): Palmer's thesis is wrong, and in several dimensions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Palmer refers to a <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/policy_brief_on_covid_impact_on_children_16_april_2020.pdf">new
UN paper</a> from April of this year. However, the authors of the paper do not
present any empirical evidence and also note themselves that this will only be
possible later. In addition, the assumptions made in the study about the link
between Covid-19 and pandemic-induced excess mortality of children in poor
countries are limited to three impact channels, which are also quite plausible:
increased susceptibility to morbid virus infections, overburdening of local
health care systems<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
and jeopardizing the UN Agenda 2030 with its 17 goals for sustainable
development (SDGs). But: The UN document does not mention the lockdown, it is
even recommended (on page 15)!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Neither Palmer nor the UN study
explicitly mention the so-called <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">poverty
elasticity</i> in developing countries as a function of the growth of the rich
countries<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
The sequence of effects would be indirect: the stringency of the lockdown
reduces GDP in the rich countries, on which GDP growth in the poor countries
depends<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
In the poor countries, the elasticity of poverty in turn determines child
mortality, at least below a certain income threshold. However, the poverty
elasticity of growth in developing countries depends even more tightly on the
inequality of income and wealth there. If Palmer had read the recent study by
the prominent African economist Augustin Fosu<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
he ought to have known that.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Lockdowns to contain the spread of
the virus have immediate and dramatic effects on daily economic activity. The
impact on GDP will depend on how long the lockdowns last and how stringent they
are. By way of illustration, a two to three-month crisis with a five-week
national "peak austerity" that reduces GDP by 20% per day would
result in a 7% to 8% decline in quarterly GDP, <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/deep-global-recession-in-2020-as-coronavirus-crisis-escalates-02-04-2020">Fitch
rating agency</a> recently estimated. However, lockdowns and changing consumer
habits are not easy to separate: Sweden, for example, is also experiencing a
dramatic slump despite liberal Covid policies. Economists at the <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630.pdf">University of Copenhagen</a> have
found that lockdowns have had little impact on consumer habits and that the
real damper on buying activity is fear of the corona virus itself.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">What is the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">prevention paradox</i> for public health corresponds to the Global
Public Good in the interdependent world economy (Quah, 2020)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>:
a preventive measure that has a high benefit for the population and communities
often brings little to the individual and vice versa. Historical evidence from
the 1918 Spanish flu, analyzed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
shows that those US cities that continued to experience higher employment
growth in manufacturing after that date also had lower mortality rates due to
the epidemic. Importantly, they introduced tighter public health interventions
in the form of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">physical distancing,
quarantine</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lockdown</i>. Strict
preventive measures have a high health benefit for the population as a whole,
but harm individual interests. Therefore, a loud minority rebels against public
health measures which, paradoxically, are acceptable in their own interests.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The search
for clues thus reveals that Boris Palmer has quoted the UN study incorrectly,
misjudging important causal relationships between our prevention measures and
child mortality in the poorest countries and ignoring the prevention paradox.
Palmer was wrong in his provocation, not only morally. After all, in the
pandemic, strict prevention measures are ultimately the least harmful way for
the economy, in rich countries and elsewhere.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
*Article published in German on 25. May @Makronom: <a href="https://makronom.de/boris-palmer-kostet-der-lockdown-kinder-in-aermeren-laendern-das-leben-36045">https://makronom.de/boris-palmer-kostet-der-lockdown-kinder-in-aermeren-laendern-das-leben-36045</a></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<br />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Mind you, the
term "lockdown" has not applied to Germany in the corona crisis so
far. Germany does not have a lockdown, but contact restrictions and school
closures. The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker">Blavatnik
School Covid Stringency<span style="font-style: normal;"> </span>Index</a></i>, a
composite of 13 individual indicators (e.g. curfews, stops of public transport,
closures of restaurants, schools and stadiums) has always been well below the
levels of the top stringent Italy, Spain and France.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Max Roser (2019), </span></span><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-global-goal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Child mortality</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">: achieving the global goal for 2030 would be a
huge achievement – but we are currently far away, Ourworldindata, Oxford U, 23.
</span>April.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Simulations by the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health </i>have confirmed the importance of the state of health systems for
child mortality in poor countries. </span></span>Another major determinant is
malnutrition. Cf. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30229-1">The
Lancet, May 12, 2020</a>.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">The growth elasticity of
poverty (GEP) is the percentage reduction in the poverty rate (PR) associated
with a percentage change in mean (per capita) income (y): GEP = - (d%PR/d%y).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn5" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Note that the poorest
countries' dependence on China for growth has exceeded their dependence on OECD
countries for the past two decades. Cf. Chris Garroway et al. (2012), „</span></span><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v35y2012i3p273-294.html"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The Renminbi and Poor‐country Growth</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The World Economy</i>, Vol. 35.3., S. 273-294.</span> </div>
</div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Augustin K. Fosu (2017), “</span></span><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090944316300862"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Growth, inequality, and poverty
reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Research in Economics</i>, Vol. 17.2, S. 306-336.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Danny Quah (2020), </span></span><a href="https://medium.com/@1DannyQuah/keeping-people-from-dying-is-good-for-business-9aa5b6a93a46"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Keeping people from dying is good
for business</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">, medium.com,
18. May.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid%20lockdown%20child%20mortality.docx#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Sergio Correia et al. (2020),
“</span></span><a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/03/fight-the-pandemic-save-the-economy-lessons-from-the-1918-flu.html"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Fight the Pandemic, Save the
Economy: Lessons from the 1918 Flu</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Federal Reserve Bank of New
York Liberty Street Economics</i>, 27. March.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<br />ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-2582817915172661412020-04-13T12:05:00.000+02:002020-04-13T18:09:40.142+02:00Eurogroup Solidarity and Household Wealth: the ´Rich North´ Caricature<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The Eurogroup recalls <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tonio Kröger</i>, Thomas Mann´s early novella. The son of a Hanseatic
merchant and a "Southern" mother, Tonio Kröger inherited qualities
from both sides of his family. But he experienced conflicting sentiments,
feeling both superior to the Bourgeois due to his artistic talents and envious
of their vitality. This conflict continues to imprint on the Eurogroup, with
finance ministers rooting from Northern Hanse and Eastern Habsburg preaching
austerity, and their counterparts from the (Latin) South vulnerable to financial
crises and weaker public finances.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Importantly, the Hanse-Habsburg countries are
barring the mutualisation of debt (Eurobonds), for a variety of reasons such as
the fear of free rider problems (via asymmetric transfers paid from
Northern taxes) or fear of their own taxpayer constituencies. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Brexit</i> adds another element of caution
that EU cohesion may not only be unwound from the South through rising anti-EU
(or anti-Euro) sentiment, but equally from lack of voters´ support from the
North (and the East). The endemic deficiency of the EU to this day is that a solid
European public sphere hardly exists<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Eurogroup%20Tensions%20and%20Median%20Houshold%20Wealth.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
The proliferation of EU-friendly think tanks cannot make up for this
shortcoming.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Late March 2020, EU leaders faced a proposal
co-signed by </span><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/nine-eu-countries-say-its-time-for-corona-bonds-as-virus-deaths-rise.html"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">nine different eurozone</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> governments: the “coronabond”,
a new type of public debt instrument to be backed by all the 19 (!) member
states of the currency union as they come together to combat the escalating
COVID-19 crisis. However, the eurobond motion came up against the eurozone’s
“frugal four” – Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland – who avoided
their inclusion in the emergency rescue package to make available more than
half a trillion euros to cushion the impact of the coronavirus pandemic across
Europe. Italy and Spain, badly hit by the virus, would have benefitted most –
not least via an immediate drop in the interest burden on their public debts. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Table: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mean net wealth per adult (USD), wealth
inequality and taxation<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">in selected
Eurozone countries<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTable15Grid4Accent6" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: -1; mso-yfti-lastfirstrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #70AD47; border-right: none; border: solid #70AD47 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 80.2pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 5; text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: background1;">Countries<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #70AD47; border-bottom: solid #70AD47 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid #70AD47 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: background1;">2019
Median Wealth/Adult, k<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #70AD47; border-bottom: solid #70AD47 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid #70AD47 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: background1;">2019
Mean Wealth/Adult, k<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #70AD47; border-bottom: solid #70AD47 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid #70AD47 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 74.55pt;" valign="top" width="149"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: background1;">Wealth
Inequality (Gini)<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #70AD47; border-left: none; border: solid #70AD47 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-alt: solid #70AD47 .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.5pt;" valign="top" width="155"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: background1;">Inheritance
tax, % GDP<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 80.2pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“Frugal”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 74.55pt;" valign="top" width="149"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.5pt;" valign="top" width="155"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 80.2pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Germany</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">35.3<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">216.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 74.55pt;" valign="top" width="149"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">81.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.5pt;" valign="top" width="155"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">0.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 80.2pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Netherlands</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">31.1<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">279.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 74.55pt;" valign="top" width="149"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">90.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.5pt;" valign="top" width="155"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">0.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 80.2pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">“Vulnerable”</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 74.55pt;" valign="top" width="149"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.5pt;" valign="top" width="155"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 80.2pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Italy</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">91.9<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">234.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 74.55pt;" valign="top" width="149"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">66.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.5pt;" valign="top" width="155"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">0.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 80.2pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Spain</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">95.4<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">207.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 74.55pt;" valign="top" width="149"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">69.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.5pt;" valign="top" width="155"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">0.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 80.2pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Europe</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">24.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 84.0pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">154.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 74.55pt;" valign="top" width="149"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">82.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.5pt;" valign="top" width="155"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">n.a.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 9.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Sources: Credit Suisse (2019),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Global%20wealth%20databook%20-%20Credit%20Suisse"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 9.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Global Wealth Databook</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 9.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ifo Institute (2018), “</span><a href="https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/dice-report-2018-2-drometer-frank-hofbauer-p%C3%A9rez-rhode-schworm-stitteneder.pdf"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 9.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Wealth
and Inheritance Taxation: An Overview and Country Comparison</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 9.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">”,
Ifo DICE Report, 02/2018.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 9.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Notes: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Wealth</i> is net household
wealth composed of financial (liquid assets; equities; other, including funded
pension and life insurance assets) plus non-financial (housing, land and small
business) assets minus debt. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Inheritance
tax</i> refers to revenues from taxes on inheritance, bequest and gifts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Sure, to wither the human
and economic <i>coronavirus</i> desaster, solidarity is called for across EU
nations. But it is easy to cast the recurring Euro conflicts in terms of the
selfish rich against he vulnerable poor. The table shows that the reality is
more complicated. It is based on the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Credit
Suisse Global Wealth Report</i>, which has been the leading reference on global
household wealth since more than a decade. Wealth is defined as net household
wealth, composed of financial (retail or institutional holdings of cash, deposits,
stocks and funded pension or insurance assets) plus non-financial (housing,
land and small business) assets minus debt (for more details, consult Davies,
Lluberas and Shorrocks (2016)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Eurogroup%20Tensions%20and%20Median%20Houshold%20Wealth.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><sup><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[2]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></sup></a>).
Unfunded pension claims, for example, do not enter the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Obviously, the
evidence shown here is not intended to feed a normative judgement on the pros
and cons of Eurobonds or Coronabonds. I personally take an agnostic view on
them, even though the recent PR glibber in favour of Coronabonds does awake my
iconoclast instincts. I rather want to simply derive two points from the table:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">First, the terms ´rich´ and ´poor´
should refer to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">wealth stocks</i>, not to
annual <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">income flows</i>. The frugal
leaders Germany and Netherlands have very low median wealth/adult (real estate
and financial assets), in fact roughly <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">a
third</i>(!) of the median wealth/adult level recorded for Italy or Spain. Consequently,
common talk about the ´rich´ North and the ´´poor´ South is misleading. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Second, wealth inequality is very
high in the frugal leaders Netherlands and Germany, indicated by the stark
divergence of their median and mean wealth/adult level. Household wealth seems
distributed more equally in vulnerable Italy and Spain. This is confirmed by
the displayed <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Gini coefficients</i> (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Corrado Gini</i>´s measure ranges from 0 to
100%, with 0 representing perfect equality and 100 representing perfect
inequality). As the mean wealth/adult of the “frugals” roughly equals that of
Italy and Spain, common talk about the ´rich´ North or the ´poor´ South is
still misleading even when mean wealth is compared.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <o:p></o:p></span>I draw two tentative conclusions that may have garnered insufficient attention in the Eurobond debate. First, Germany and the Netherlands may well remain stingy as long as household wealth isn´t distributed more equally <i>inside</i> their countries; higher median household wealth might lower the political backlash from mutualising public liabilities on the Eurozone level. Second, there is also scope in the vulnerable countries to engage <i>their </i>wealthy in bearing more of the cost of COVID-19. A reintroduction of these progressive taxes in Italy may be called for to have the local rich contribute to the extraordinary cost of the Corona crisis in the country. Estate, inheritance and gift tax revenue in % of GDP is low throughout Europe, and zero in Italy. Europe leads the world in inherited wealth: The richest Florentine families in 1427 still are<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Eurogroup%20Tensions%20and%20Median%20Houshold%20Wealth.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><sup><sup><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.6933px;">[3]</span></sup></sup></a>.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<br />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Eurogroup%20Tensions%20and%20Median%20Houshold%20Wealth.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">H.M. Enzensberger (2011), <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Brussels the Gentle Monster - or the
Disenfranchisement of Europe</i>, Seagull Books.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Eurogroup%20Tensions%20and%20Median%20Houshold%20Wealth.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> Davies, J., R. Lluberas and A.
Shorrocks (2016), “</span><a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/estimating-level-and-distribution-global-wealth-2000%E2%80%9314"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Estimating the level and
distribution of global wealth, 2000-14</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">”, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">WIDER
Working Paper,</i> No. 2016/3, UNU-Wider, Helsinki.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Eurogroup%20Tensions%20and%20Median%20Houshold%20Wealth.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> A. Speciale and C. Vasarri (2016), “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-23/how-to-stay-rich-in-europe-inherit-money-for-700-years">How
to Stay Rich in Europe: Inherit Money for 700 Years</a>”, Bloomberg, 26.
August. Special thanks to special Twitter mate Stephan Ewald aka “I bims. Der #MAGA#Ottakringer”
for pointing me to this article.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
<br />ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-13888719834251071862020-03-31T13:17:00.001+02:002020-04-02T17:25:09.384+02:00Sovereign Wealth Funds under Corona Stress<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Sovereign
wealth funds (SWFs) have suffered heavy losses since the outbreak of the
coronavirus pandemic; those losses were reinforced by an oil price collapse to
lowest level since 2002. Sovereign funds from oil-producing countries mainly in
the Middle East and Africa were estimated to dump up to $225 billion in
equities, as plummeting oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic hit state
finances. For 2020, the sum of SWF equity losses exceeds one trillion US
dollars according to a </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-swf-analysis/oil-rich-wealth-funds-seen-shedding-upto-225-billion-in-stocks-idUSKBN21G05K"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Reuters report of 29<sup>th</sup>
March</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">How large
was that loss in relative terms? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This is
hard to tell with precision as the SWF industry is shrouded in secrecy. My
hunch, though, is that SWF worldwide have seen their total assets plummet by
one eighth (12.5%). Aggregate SWF assets had risen to US$ 7.45 trn by Spring
2018, the latest </span><a href="https://docs.preqin.com/reports/Preqin-Special-Report-Sovereign-Wealth-Funds-August-2018.pdf"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Preqin Sovereign Wealth Fund Review</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> reported. I assume that total
assets had continue to rise modestly until the sudden stop early this year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Assets (US$ bn) Held by Top Ten SWFs, end 2019<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div align="center">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTable15Grid6ColorfulAccent6" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: -1; mso-yfti-lastfirstrow: yes;">
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.5pt; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #A8D08D 1.5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 5;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">Norway Government Pension
Fund Global<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.5pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #A8D08D 1.5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: right;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">1.099<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">China Investment
Corporation<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">941<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">Abu Dhabi Investment
Authority<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">697<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">Kuwait investment
Authority<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">592<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">Hong Kong Monetary
Authority<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">509<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">GIC Private Ltd Singapore<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">440<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">National Council Social
Security Fund China<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">438<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">SAFE Investment Company
China<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">418<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">Temasek Holdings
Singapore<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">375<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">Qatar Investment
Authority<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">328<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">Total Top Ten<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">5.837<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-top: none; border: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;">Source:
</span><b><span style="color: #538135; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;"><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/276617/sovereign-wealth-funds-worldwide-based-on-assets-under-management/"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-weight: normal; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Statista</span></a></span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #538135; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 191;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #E2EFD9; border-bottom: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #A8D08D 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent6; mso-background-themetint: 51; mso-border-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 153; mso-border-left-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-left-themetint: 153; mso-border-right-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-right-themetint: 153; mso-border-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-themetint: 153; mso-border-top-alt: solid #A8D08D .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: accent6; mso-border-top-themetint: 153; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;" valign="top"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64; text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The table lists and ranks the top
ten SWF by assets, roughly 75% of world assets under management by SWF,
combined more than US$ 5.8 trn. Although China´s SWF assets combined were the
largest (US$ 1.8 trn) even excluding the Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Investment Portfolio, Norways SWF has retained the top position. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<a href="https://www.thelocal.no/20200326/norways-oil-fund-loses-13-trillion-kroner-in-coronavirus-crash"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The Local Norway</span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> reported that Norway´s SWF had lost
US$ 125 bn at current exchange rates for the Norway Krona. Its share portfolio,
which accounts for about two-thirds of its holdings (equivalent to 1.5 percent
of global market capitalisation), reported a 23-percent drop in 2020.
Consequently, total assets of Norway´s oil fund have dropped below US$ 1 trn, a
level first reached in 2017.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Yngve Slyngstad, the head of Norway´s
fund manager Norges Bank Investment Management, announced that the drop in
assets would trigger a so-called rebalancing rule, meaning that the SWF will in
the long-term buy shares in the global equity markets. The fund’s equity quota,
which was on target at 70% at the end of 2019, had fallen to just over 65%.
However, does such a high share of equities make sense for the portfolio of an
oil-fed SWF? I doubt it. At least, I would advise Norway to wait with equity reinvestment
and rather stop extracting oil.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">An oil-exporting country optimising
production should be indifferent between keeping its oil underground (in which
case the return is the expected rise in future oil prices) and receiving a
market rate of return on its sale (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hotelling</i>’s
Rule for efficient depletion)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/SWFs%20under%20Corona%20Stress.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
The standoff between Russia and Saudi Arabia and the global corona recession
have driven the oil price to historically low levels. Over recent years, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ICE Brent Crude</i> has cost between 60 and
80 US dollars per barrel. End of March 2020, it stood at around 21-13 US
dollars. Eventual mean reversion would imply a rise of 300 percent over the
next two, three years. While the Saudis keep on flooding the market, they run
down capital, unless the receipts are fully reinvested in financial, physical
or human capital (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hartwick</i>’s Rule for
intergenerational equity). But they won´t hurt themselves forever, which
should mean higher oil prices as their flooding ends.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">What can Norway´s SWF expect in
terms of future equity returns over the next two, three years? Much depends on
the shape of recovery – V, L, W, or U<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/SWFs%20under%20Corona%20Stress.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><sup>;<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/SWFs%20under%20Corona%20Stress.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></sup>.
To be sure, hardly the 300 percent rise it can expect for oil. The fund has
been mainly invested in big caps such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Roche,
Nestlé and Novartis. But let´s assume the Norway Government Pension Fund Global
will simply buy the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">MSCI World</i> to
rebalance its portfolio to the equity quota of 70%. That index has dropped from
2400 and bottomed at 1600 in March, or 33%. To reach old highs, the MSCI World
would have to rise by 50%. In case of V-shaped recovery of the world economy at
least, the expected rise in oil prices would easily be superior than in global
equities. If the world economy does not recover quickly as the coronavirus
rambles on, both oil and equity prices will remain depressed at best.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">MSCI World v Brent, March 2019 to March 2020<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Hz_Kirdxi_E4hQq1tmzAQ8TxmmXVO1UfanXOMsT7MiqBIhODnd_Uv8UF3ocj5nx2jDZQUdWS873UTCAA_mvKUd5FCD4XRqaLFj1r2O9Anm6hG1TZ8HEYTx9-n8pQcNlmIhQX28ZB7cc/s1600/MSCI+World+vs+Brent.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="1254" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Hz_Kirdxi_E4hQq1tmzAQ8TxmmXVO1UfanXOMsT7MiqBIhODnd_Uv8UF3ocj5nx2jDZQUdWS873UTCAA_mvKUd5FCD4XRqaLFj1r2O9Anm6hG1TZ8HEYTx9-n8pQcNlmIhQX28ZB7cc/s400/MSCI+World+vs+Brent.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">A more permanent point that
militates against driving the equity share of oil-fed SWFs to 70% stems from
basic insights of modern portfolio theory. It states that portfolio variance
can be reduced by selecting securities with low or negative correlations in
which to invest, such as stocks and bonds<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/SWFs%20under%20Corona%20Stress.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Indeed, the recent turmoil on both oil and global equity markets drove their
correlation to high levels whereas AAA government bonds remained largely
unaffected. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<br />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/SWFs%20under%20Corona%20Stress.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> Helmut Reisen (2008), <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://voxeu.org/article/how-spend-it-sovereign-wealth-funds-and-wealth-nations">How
to spend it: Sovereign wealth funds and the wealth of nations</a>, Voxeu, 5
June.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/SWFs%20under%20Corona%20Stress.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Richard Baldwin & Beatrice
Weder (2020), <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://voxeu.org/content/economics-time-covid-19">Economics in the Time
of COVID-19</a>, Voxeu, 6 March.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/SWFs%20under%20Corona%20Stress.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Helmut Reisen (2020), <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2020/03/shifting-wealth-in-times-of-coronavirus.html">Shifting
Wealth in Times of the Coronavirus</a>, ShiftingWealth blog, 8 March.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/SWFs%20under%20Corona%20Stress.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN-GB">Investopedia, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/071515/how-can-i-measure-portfolio-variance.asp">How
Can I Measure Portfolio Variance?</a><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
</div>
<br />ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-71251634084984453682020-03-24T10:50:00.001+01:002020-03-24T10:58:58.959+01:00Die Seuche<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb6Oj1jz1JAodSOlFiHBDlzZC8Olv8pKKtRofPn380B0eDpbPtaLfwy4VQG3xS5A2G0KLN8NvTTzV1v34RTMI4zjZCh5l6CYGOwRmNsWA9oThK8RLuguyVfKmIx4engCFzZiTZloYOsCg/s1600/Holbein.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="320" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb6Oj1jz1JAodSOlFiHBDlzZC8Olv8pKKtRofPn380B0eDpbPtaLfwy4VQG3xS5A2G0KLN8NvTTzV1v34RTMI4zjZCh5l6CYGOwRmNsWA9oThK8RLuguyVfKmIx4engCFzZiTZloYOsCg/s320/Holbein.PNG" width="230" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Holbein d.J., Der Tod holt sich den Krämer, 1525</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Die
Seuche tobt, sie fegt die Straßen leer.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Jaulend
streiten Katzen in der Nacht,<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
die
seltsam still und schwarz.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Die
Menschen sind im Hausarrest,<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
manche
singen vom Balkon.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Ansonsten
fügt man sich.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Gehorsam gegen Schutz,</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Ordnung durch Disziplin.</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
"Dahoam is dahoam".</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Tabellen,
Charts werden verschlungen:<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Tote,
Infizierte, täglich Rekorde.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Börsen
stürzen, Firmen schließen.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Stillstand,
Arbeitslose, Heimarbeit.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Die
Krankenpflege unterbezahlt,<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Spitäler
wurden lange ausgehungert.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Der
Schwarze Tod als Referenz,<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Pesthauben
sind heute die Masken.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Virologen die neuen Stars..<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Keine
Zeit für Weltenbummler,<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
die
Krämer stehen vor dem Aus.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Vom
Boom zum Bust im Sturzflug.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Der
Spuk wird zwar eine Ende finden,<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
doch
wann, mit welchen Folgen?<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: right;">
Epochenwende
2020.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<br />ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-79770188655531359192020-03-08T18:25:00.003+01:002020-03-09T14:52:39.228+01:00Shifting Wealth in Times of the Coronavirus<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">A decade ago, we defined Shifting Wealth as the
shift in the gravity of the world economy and as the switch in net foreign
assets toward Asia. The gravity shift occurred as a result of superior GDP growth
of economies with large populations (notably China and India, some 40% of world
population) from the 1990s. The switch in assets resulted from structural
deficits of the US that were financed by Asian saving surplus<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid19%20and%20SW.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Starting with a deliberate China containment
poliy from the early 2000s by the US and Japan in particular, reinforced by a
clearly protectionist policy stance by the Trump administration, the <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">2019–20 <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">coronavirus
</i>(also COVID-19) outbreak</span> has the potential to end three decades
of Shifting Wealth. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">End 2019, the coronavirus was first identified
in the Chinese Hubei province, in Wuhan. China has by far the highest number of
coronavirus-related infections (80k), recoveries (57k) and deaths (3k); other
countries hard hit are South Korea, Italy and Iran<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid19%20and%20SW.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
The Chinese purchasing manager index <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Caixin
</i>Services PMI in the services sector collapsed almost 50% as a result of the
Corona Virus pandemic as economic activity came to an abrupt halt between
January and February 2020. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As a result of Shifting Wealth, China plays a
far greater role in global output, trade, tourism and commodity markets than
only 20 years ago. This magnifies the economic spillovers to other countries
from an adverse shock in China. In its latest Interim Projections, the OECD
estimates China´s real GDP growth rate (year-on-year) to drop from 6.1% in 2019
to 4.9% in 2020, but then to recover to 6.4% in 2021. Under this optimistic
scenario, the China´s growth delta would be restored quickly, and Shifting
Wealth would continue, reinforced by India´s high growth. The OECD optimism is
grounded on the assumption of a V-shaped recovery. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The key question now is whether the world will
enjoy a V, just like a seasonal flu or a common cold from which people tend to
recover quickly. There are other possibilities which, taken together, are more
likely. A W-shape as people recover from coronavirus but then relapse; a long
slump (U) as economic shock could cause lingering pain as the world economy
digested the 2008 global financial crisis; finally, the world economy might
suffer an L-shaped slump as it did after the 1970s oil shocks. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">A ‘V-shaped’ hit seemed likely several weeks
ago when infections were mostly a Chinese problem and China was dealing with it
forcefullywith the coronavirus. While the spreading of the virus has now slowed
down to a trickle in China, the virus is now multiplying rapidly in Europe, in
the US and elsewhere. As of today (8<sup>th</sup> March), the coronavirus has
hit <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">103 countries and territories</span> around
the world as well as the<i> Diamond Princess </i>cruise ship
harbored in Yokohama, Japan. Many of these countries don´t have an
efficient public health system (most prominently the US where testing is
limited) or refuse to seriously engage in global solutions to the coronavirus
crisis. On the altar of faith in the primacy of individual freedom and superiority
of the market economy, strict quarantine campaigns are being launched too late
or not at all<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid19%20and%20SW.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>. <o:p></o:p></span>Finally, at this point it can´t be excluded that the coronavirus becomes endemic and becomes a periodic disease.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The best broad assessment about the economic
fallout comes so far, in my view, from Richard Baldwin and Beatrice Weder di
Mauro (2020)<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid19%20and%20SW.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>. On
the back of evidence and analysis by leading economists, their overall
assessment is: “While a short-and-sharp crisis is still possible, it’s looking
less like the most likely outcome”. By comparison, most German economists,
money advisers and journalists still seem too complacent about the coronavirus
threat. And they recommend what they always do: Keynesians demand stimulation, Ordoliberals
warn against activism, financial advisors and journalists recommend not to sell
but to keep on buying stoically (while the knife keeps falling). Financial markets
are now reacting in a way that will impose additional pain on the real economy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Baldwin and Weder discuss the virus in terms of
the relative importance of supply vs. demand shock that determines the
effectiveness of policy stimulus. They stress the supply-shock character of
output disruption as supply shocks are more tangible, from an infected
workforce via shuttered schools and workplaces, to hits to productivity.
Countries at the core of global value chains (GVCs) are especially hard hit by
the virus-induced slump in manufacturing output – next to China (at the GVCs
center), these are South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam. These countries
form the GVCs core and - via intense trade, banking and investment links with
the G7 economies – dominate world GDP, manufacturing and exports. That
dominance results, at least in the short and mid term, in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">global supply-side contagion</i>. Industrial sectors hardest hit are
likely to be the optics and car industries. Protectionist deglobalisation
measures will deepen the slump as there is little official understanding of the
global public goods character of open borders in times f the coronavirus.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The presumed dominance of supply-side shocks is
not to belittle the demand effects of the virus. Immediate aggregate demand
effects arise from suspended consumer purchases of goods and services for fear
of viral contagion, such as cruise holidays or air travel, visits to rock
concerts or theaters. Each of these first-round demand shocks are likely to be
subject to Keynesian multiplier amplification. Not all demand, though, is gone
definitely, as some demand is reoriented toward the internet. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Stock markets have taken long to discount for
the unique economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">MSCI
WRLD PI USD </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">peaked on 12th
February; since then, it has lost 12 % (only) but CBOE volatility has spiked
and the US dollar has weakened against the funding currency euro as carry
trades were dissolved and bond rate differentials shrunk. This is far from a
financial market crash so far; should it come, negative wealth effects and
pension returns will deepen the slump. Corporate bond markets have also started
to price in default risk.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A sudden
deglobalisation – and hence a structural break to Shifting Wealth – is still in
the cards. Official deglobalisation measures that hinder
the flow of goods, service and people could well make the economic effects of
this pandemic more persistent: “in times of rising nationalism and populism,
people’s fears and suspicions of ‘others’ might become a force for
disintegration and deglobalisation”. </span><br />
The West could have benefited earlier from the Chinese experience. But parallel to protectionism, a chinaphobic attitude has developed in the West, which wants to deny itself insights from other systems, with finger pointing at re-education camps and surveillance cameras. At the same time, a great self-sufficiency was fed in the media regarding the supposed superiority of the West. If Western narrow-mindedness continues, the 21st century will finally become Asian.</div>
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<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
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<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid19%20and%20SW.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="http://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2011/04/defining-shifting-wealth.html">http://shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2011/04/defining-shifting-wealth.html</a><o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid19%20and%20SW.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/</a><o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid19%20and%20SW.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Fischer
& Mayer (2020), <a href="https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/es-ist-fahrlaessig-covid-19-durch-die-systembrille-zu-betrachten-ld.1544570">https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/es-ist-fahrlaessig-covid-19-durch-die-systembrille-zu-betrachten-ld.1544570</a>,
NZZ.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Reisen/Documents/Publications/Covid19%20and%20SW.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Baldwin
& Weder (2020), <a href="https://voxeu.org/content/economics-time-covid-19">https://voxeu.org/content/economics-time-covid-19</a>,
VoxEU.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122585320968190891.post-32365986012093866212019-11-15T12:54:00.003+01:002019-11-15T12:54:45.933+01:00How best to prepare for Merkel´s Africa Summit on 19th November in Berlin<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" style="background-color: white; border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: #14171a; display: inline; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.3125; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Attending the Africa summit headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #14171a; white-space: pre-wrap;"> in Berlin on 19th November? </span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #14171a; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #14171a; white-space: pre-wrap;">Be prepared by reading <b> „G20 Compact with Africa: The Audacity of Hope“</b>, by Robert Kappel & Helmut Reisen, just released by Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #14171a; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #14171a; white-space: pre-wrap;">Download the study here: </span></span><a href="http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/15748.pdf">http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/15748.pdf</a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2s7ZNXYEv6Ir_8KA2ekUQ9JxSs6TKCmx12csU9XbvD0nWdFwph8TXMGiWePHWXdBkdB9h122Le8-j8SMaxKvSxcg3eGY6MlKWO3u6PWE8SDHLqPIFN6kGcqvyWRJP7hdEQr1j0b8bG7Y/s1600/FES+CwA+Kappel+Reisen.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="843" data-original-width="593" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2s7ZNXYEv6Ir_8KA2ekUQ9JxSs6TKCmx12csU9XbvD0nWdFwph8TXMGiWePHWXdBkdB9h122Le8-j8SMaxKvSxcg3eGY6MlKWO3u6PWE8SDHLqPIFN6kGcqvyWRJP7hdEQr1j0b8bG7Y/s400/FES+CwA+Kappel+Reisen.PNG" width="281" /></a></div>
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On 19 November, Chancellor Angela Merkel will once again welcome selected African heads of state and government to Berlin and talk to them about enhanced economic cooperation. The focus will once again be on the Compact with Africa (CwA).<br />
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The aim of the initiative launched by Germany in 2017 as part of the G20 is to improve the framework conditions for private sector investment in Africa and to pave the way for more direct investment (FDI). The Compact brings together selected African countries, international organisations (IMF, World Bank, African Development Bank) and bilateral G20 partners and focuses on country-specific reform agendas. Currently, 12 African states are part of the CwA: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Morocco, Rwanda, Senegal, Togo and Tunisia.<br />
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With the study, we follow on from a publication by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in 2017, entitled "The G20 'Compact with Africa' - Unsuitable for African Low Income Countries". Already then, we pointed out insufficiencies in the CwA approach and recommended improvements. As the title of the new FES study suggests, we believe that the Compact still has clear shortcomings - and now also against the background of the data available after two CwA years.<br />
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<br />ReibReisenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620310558868742236noreply@blogger.com0